š ā¢ Wx Forecaster since ā08 āļø ā¢ NCSU Alum šŗ #GoPack ā¢ Diver š¤æ
Raleigh, NC
Joined June 2009
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We would probably need a bigger sample size, this is only 27 NiƱo winters back to 1950. And honestly I wouldnāt want to go back to the 1800s because then youāre getting into an entirely different climatology and it probably wouldnāt survive any kind of sig tests
Pick your CWA from the main page, click āmapā in the top menu, then state map tab. Be sure to change what you intend to map.
North Carolina measurable snow occurrence during El Nino winters based on teleconnection phase (-/+)
These maps are available for 48 states on Snow Signal.
Snow Signal is now live for 105 CWA offices! 121.7 million rows of data analyzed. More to come soon! Snow.wall.cloud
Tercile bins (AN, N, BN) of the probability the area will fall in that tercile. So you canāt compare that to temperature anomalies you have to compare that to the same way it was issued, which is the observed tercile bin it fell into.
Np. In recent history, CPC seasonal outlook is better than climo. 10/13 winters improved on equal chances. Note that these are November issued outlooks as I figured Iād give them a fair shake instead of using October issued DJF outlooks.
The issue I have is that CPC winter outlooks are not probabilistic temperature forecasts. CPC uses tercile binsā¦ so evaluated based on the observed terciles, you get this.
If you want to really evaluate Seasonal CPC skill thereās datasets to do so. CPC forecast probability shading and composite Ā°F anomaly shading arenāt directly comparable, especially with the spatial climate division polygons.
No Mark did the initial combining I just used a complete numerical dataset to do it. I do indeed know what my maps to the right depictā¦
Snow Signal is now live for 105 CWA offices! 121.7 million rows of data analyzed. More to come soon! Snow.wall.cloud
Ralph is using obs maps with differing temperature scales (note the ranges in F) and also different climatologies (some are 81-2010, others are 91-2020)
Though I didn't know Jared personally, he was often being the only one to like/RT my posts when no one else would. I'd like to think that was a sign of his character, as I see the tributes flow in. Thoughts with the CHSwx community.
This one hurts. A dear friend in life and an excellent colleague in our weather industry Jared Smith (@chswx Charleston Weather) unexpectedly passed away yesterday due to extended complications from his heart surgery last Thursday. It was a planned surgery that was to help avoid further complications and get him where he needed to be, but it turned for the worst and many of us are surprisingly upset and very sad. Just contacted him last Wed night before the surgery and he was very positive and optimistic going into it - even said he wanted to have another get-together after the whole thing was over. Made sure to give him some positive words and wish him well. Glad I did - because I didn't know it would be the last conversation I would have with him. š„
Jared was a one-of-a-kind person who was both genuine and generous with his time. If you knew him, he was extremely talented in all areas of his careers. I met and worked with him on the @CarolinaWxGroup for many years and we kept in good touch for all things weather here locally. Jared had just gotten married to his wife Lily Wald and was very happy. There are a lot of sad folks today wondering how and why with the complications, but let's focus on the person he was and celebrate his time with us - he touched a lot of lives with his personality and his incredible ability to share his knowledge. Truly a light that shone brightly - gone too soon. Keep him, his family and loved ones in your thoughts and say a prayer for their well being through this hard time.
Take care and hug your peeps today - make those calls you've been meaning to make that time has washed over. It's worth it.
Pics below include his wife Lily and at a College of Charleston meteorology event with Dr. Marshall Shepherd, TV Personality, Professor, Author as speaker and Meteorologist Trevor Gibbs, who among the first graduates of the CofC meteorology program. Jared was super stoked to be there as you can see. Great memory!
