@webberweatheri
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Gov't meteorologist part of the weather industrial complex. UNCC & NCSU Alum Opinions are my own & not a reflection of my employer
Joined November 2012
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In the coming days, you'll see many Velocity Potential & Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) plots on #wxtwitter.
Here, I show what they often entail for Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity.
Notice the Atlantic is most active (🔴) when the MJO (🟢) reaches Indonesia (phase 4)
It’s not too surprising to see a storm like #Polo here rapidly-very rapidly intensifying. I noted how exceptionally favorable the subseasonal environment was over a week ago w/ several equatorial waves simultaneously passing over the East Pacific late month
Eric Webb retweeted
Tropical Storm #Polo is poised to rapidly/explosively intensify today with a clear cyan ring visible on 37 GHz color composite imagery. This is one of the more well-defined cyan rings I have seen for a TC of this strength. Ceiling is extremely high here.
Eric Webb retweeted
Tropical storm #Fay in the subtropical Atlantic is looking rather impressive this morning. Deep central convection is wrapping into the upshear quadrant, and MW imagery reveals a nascent core. It's within the realm of possibility that the system may make a run towards hurricane status before it enters adverse conditions in a couple days.
Eric Webb retweeted
TC-ATLAS now features an interactive, global archive of IR brightness temperatures from 1980–present here: tcatlas.org/archive_season.h… . All best-track TCs (and an experimental intensity product I'm working on) are highlighted throughout the period.
Agreed
The lack of Saharan dust this year has to do w/ the African easterly waves being weaker & less able to mix hot/dry air from the Sahara into the Atlantic. These weaker waves & anemic African monsoon are being driven by strong large-scale subsidence from the ongoing El Nino
Eric Webb retweeted
Models are starting to pick up on the possibility of development fairly close to Mexico by the end of the month. As the fall comes on and troughs start to come down, we have to watch for these to get picked up and lifted north/northeast towards Baja California or even mainland Mexico.
It's also wroth noting that SSTs are ridiculously warm along the coast there. There haven't really been any TCs over there yet to churn things up, and a Coastal Kelvin Wave is also bringing warm water to the region. So there will be plenty of fuel for anything that does form.
Large-scale conditions look exceptionally favorable for tropical development in the East Pacific near the end of Sep, w/ simultaneous passage of several convectively coupled equatorial waves. This kind of environment can support a very powerful hurricane off the coast of Mexico
This summer’s temperature pattern in the CONUS basically just reinforced the long-term trend.
Following this Super El Nino & the associated Tropical Atlantic warming, there almost certainly will be significantly hotter summers in the not-so-distant future for many
Lovely
The first truly significant positive East Asia Mtn Torque (+EAMT) event of the "cold" season this week will send the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) to the moon in week 2
The longwave pattern over N America in mid-late Sep is largely a reflection of this #S2S forcing configuration
Eric Webb retweeted
Some thoughts on the Navier-Stokes news from a professor of aerospace engineering:
1) take a deep breath
2) posts indicating we "solved Navier-Stokes" are incorrect and overblown. A very specific mathematical proof involving a niche scenario for Navier-Stokes has *potentially* been shown (that a perfectly smooth incompressible initial condition with finite energy could produce a singularity--note the assumptions here piled on to an equation set that already involves some assumptions).
3) there is no general closed form solution for N-S and that's not what this news is about
4) this is more of a mathematical curiosity than anything else and could matter a lot to mathematicians but basically changes nothing in the way N-S are used in practice
5) there are already very useful exact solutions to Navier-Stokes that greatly simplify the equation set with the right boundary conditions/geometry like laminar flow through a pipe or a 2D Taylor-Green vortex
6) in aerospace, we already treat N-S as an approximation in many instances and are well aware of its limitations. we don't outright solve these equations anyway and regularly chop off terms or simplify parts (at the expense of accuracy) to make them easier to deal with.
7) to be honest I have never found this specific problem to be particularly interesting because we know a core assumption of N-S is a "continuum" fluid where you ignore molecules and assume hydrodynamic scales >>> molecular scales. We know a real fluid cannot have infinite velocity or energy. But clearly you can push equations outside of their bound of validity and make them produce funky results and singularities.
We’re sharing a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the deepest problems at the frontier of mathematics.
The proof was produced by a group of agents, using an OpenAI next-generation model significantly more capable than GPT-6 Astra.
The problem concerns whether the description of smooth three-dimensional fluid motion modeled by the Navier-Stokes equations can break down. It has remained unresolved for roughly 90 years.
New Mexico’s version of the Aral Sea.
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