Woah now... Don't threaten me with a good time! 🤩 Both the latest GFS and European Ensembles are suggesting the Polar Vortex is going to be doing exactly what a winter lover would want to see from it in early November! Big stretch towards North America! Will that pattern lock in?? If we can get these stretches to continue, Winter is going to be very exciting in the Eastern US. #winteriscoming #PolarVortex #wxtwitter #wxX

NOAA's Winter Forecast has a clear bias during El Nino winters... Ralph (@WeatherNut27) has created a visual comparison of their forecast vs what actually happened. Here, I have created an approximate visual representation of the average forecast error (actual − favored/expected tendency) during El Niño winters. Positive values (warmer colors) on this map indicate regions where actual temperatures were warmer than the forecast tendency implied; cooler colors indicate the opposite. Note: This is a qualitative composite for illustration, not a pixel-exact digitization. Conclusion: NOAA is often way too warm across the Northern US and too cold across the Southern US with their winter forecasts during El Nino years. NOAA's forecast error last winter was pretty dramatic for the Eastern US and the NW US. These two areas saw the complete opposite of what was forecast. #winteriscoming #wxtwitter #wxX