Not much has changed based on my analysis of the latest data. POD still estimated around 60%, FAR around 70%. Trade-offs are occuring with dual-pol/radar enhancements and changes in how we warn.

Can’t speak for them but my focus was on conveying that it wasn’t a traditional dry slot like we are usually used to and once the storm went -tilt and amplified, the ascent will follow. It was more than just back end snow, the fgen rotates and the waves come from the SW. Look at this tweet here xitter.cf/_jwall/status/20172114… Not Allan or Webb, but other messaging was on traditional “back end snow” as the low exits and they were focusing on the snow hole most of the day. I saw Raleigh folks in my mentions saying no snow, HRRR runs showing 0” etc…so I wanted to convey it wasn’t over and with a storm like this even just a couple hours of fgen enhanced/deformation bands can lay 5” quick. Rates were on our side so 0.1” liquid is 1.8” snow instead of just 1”. We were on a knives edge of getting upwards of 7-10” had this gone -tilt slightly earlier, all forecasts would have busted low. Areas like Knightdale got 5.5” wake forest 5” I mean it was that close, as you recall the were in the snow hole most of the day as well.