@WxCustomize

Meteorology Student | A.S. Degree | NCSU ‘28 | North Carolina Piedmont-Triad

 Burlington, North Carolina
Joined October 2019
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209Media
Will this year's record-shattering El Niño event be the strongest in a millennium? In a new piece over at The Climate Brink I review the paleoclimate literature from tree rings and corals and argue that may well turn out to be the case. (link below)
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As a direct appeal to WeatherBell users out there. Consider my website as an alternative. Why pay 30 a month when you can get the same or better for 2-5 a month? Please help spread the word if you enjoy my work, I want to succeed but I need enough users to cover my costs!
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Everyone should check out this site. Genuinely the coolest weather data site I have ever seen.
Derek Hodges
@DerekHodgesWxOct 5
Heads up for the Gulf Coast. NHC has a 70% chance of formation with this system and there are indications it could strengthen and landfall late week or this weekend.
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*today Have a test for micro meteorology followed by a test in synoptic
rena@yowhatwhat_Sep 23
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I have been putting ChatGPT Astra through a pretty ridiculous test of building broadcast weather software for NCSU. This kind of thing would have probably taken me 2-5 years of full-time development trying to learn Direct3D. I built this in a weekend.
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Playing around with some QGIS mapping. It’s a chilly evening out there… according to the 00z GFS initialization
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I love how people are reposting something I tweeted in 2020. Maybe this is my sign to go back on Twitter
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Today’s a good day to have committed to NC State. Elite 8! 🐺
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My computer died, and I lost most of my programming files. So, I took that as an opportunity to download the updated ERA-5 data back to 1940. I think most of us along the East Coast would be satisfied to see a March 1960 repeat - because I'm a weenie.
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Once again, I decided to have a little fun in Python 🐍 today & created some Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar CONUS surface temp & 500mb height anomaly probability + mean composites for El Niños since 1855 using NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis! Unlike the previous set of composites I showed in early October, these composites include more El Niño events (53 in total). Also, weights have been applied to account for El Niño strength (1x - moderate, 2x - strong-"Super"), a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (-PDO), Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD), Positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO, or a warm Atlantic), and appearance of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) in December As you can imagine, these new composites are more favorable looking for snow lovers over the Eastern US ☃️❄️
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I've been experimenting with creating various ERA5 climatologies recently. To make sure the results look as expected, I plotted the daily change in average 2m temperature, nicely showing the contrast between land & water, as well as the change in seasons and monsoon/ITCZ:
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Decided to have a little fun in Python 🐍 today & created some Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar surface temp & 500mb height anomaly probability + mean composites for moderate-strong or east-based El Niños since 1870! To provide a more apples-apples comparison for the near-150 years worth of El Niño events & account for climate change, I created a 30-year sliding base period in NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis Version 3 that lags significantly behind each year. This is typically how today's climate anomalies are perceived & forecasted (relative to the most recent 30-year climate period (e.g. 1991-2020)). #climate #ElNino
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I finally found enough time today to analyze this past Christmas's cold wave in North Carolina. Widespread sub zero lows occurred in the mountains, w/ 0s & 10s in much of the piedmont + coastal plain Mt Mitchell was the cold spot, getting down to -21°F 🥶 #ncwx #wncwx #scwx
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Here is the other Blizzard of '78 across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
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Here are the archived Euro runs for the December 2010 Snowstorm. It's interesting to see that the Euro was much too overzealous with regard to snowfall, especially far south. Even when we "lost" the storm, there was still accumulation. @rysheely
George@WxCustomize19 Dec 2022
Okay, I just downloaded the Euro Runs for December 2010. Let's see what kind of analysis I come up with. Here's a run from 6 days out.
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Looking at the run-to-run difference in accumulation from what actually panned out, you see a bias to lean too high in spots. That, however, could be due to the 0.5-degree grid size and the necessity to fill in the blanks.
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Okay, I just downloaded the Euro Runs for December 2010. Let's see what kind of analysis I come up with. Here's a run from 6 days out.
Ryan Sheely@rysheely18 Dec 2022
Replying to @SCweather_wx
How can we find an archived model run for 12/18/2010? We had a major SE snow storm on 12/26/2010 as everyone knows. Curious what kind of look we had 5/6 days out
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Here's the z500 view of the January 1940 snowstorm; The holy grail of southeast snowstorms
George@WxCustomize19 Dec 2022
On the topic of ECMWF datasets, I discovered the CERA-20C, which goes back to 1901, and seems to be more reliable than ERA20C. I plotted the March 1927 Snowstorm. @webberweather you may appreciate this
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Here is the snow map. Likely the only snow event to produce over 6 inches in every SE state (except FL) Credit: Eric Webb
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On the topic of ECMWF datasets, I discovered the CERA-20C, which goes back to 1901, and seems to be more reliable than ERA20C. I plotted the March 1927 Snowstorm. @webberweather you may appreciate this
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