Systematic investor/trader, Kevin C Maki, PhD QV/MT investing = quality, value/momentum, trend Research scientist/educator, long-time investor/trader

SW Florida
Joined July 2023
Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
The biggest winners doesn't reveal themselves on day one.. My weekend study is complete. I wanted to know how quickly we could identify the biggest winners.. He's said it on stream: "some of the best setups go right away.. but sometimes they don't." Turns out most don't. Measured by R, the top 10% of Qullamaggies trades it looks like this: Day 1: 5/83 in the top 10% Day 3: 26/83 in the top 10% Day 5: 50/83 in the top 10% Day 10: 77/83 in the top 10% Last one needed 15 days..
‼️WEEKEND STUDY SESSION: how many days until we know we have a winner? WHY "Some of the best setups either go right away, they go straight up.. but sometimes they don't. Sometimes they come down and are very close to stop you out. And sometimes they stop you out and then go." 299 of his 828 breakout entries hit the stop on entry day. 440 on the second day. The 245 that were still open after day 5 add up to +1,555R on the 10-day exit. Everything that closed before adds up to -562R. So the losers are cut fast, and the profits are in the rest. What we don't have is the win-rate post ante, day by day. I know our overall winrate, but I've never checked the winrate on day 2, 3, 4 or 5. THE WORK (2 to 3 hours) 1. Open 30 breakout entries in date order. 2. On each chart, look at the entry candle only. Write down two things: did his stop hold through the day, and where it closed against his entry, in R 3. Move to the close of day 3. Same two things. Then day 5. 4. Then find the exit. 5. Count. Of the trades still open after day 1, how many ended green? Same for day 3 and day 5. Then the second count: on day 1, could the ones that ended big be told from the rest by where they closed? WHAT I'M AFTER Four win rates: one at the buy, after day 1, after day 3, after day 5. I have the first one. If the other three move the way I think they do, it changes how I sit through day 2. I have borrowed stil concept from someone who trades intraday with great success, who doubled his avg. gain in a setup because he cut his losers faster.
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
Updated year to date returns across major markets.
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
Good morning, market participants 🤑 The homie Benjamin Franklin once said, "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." What are you learning today?
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
I'm thrilled to share the latest episode of the #RicherWiserHappier podcast: my conversation with Matt Ludmer, founder & CEO of Aligned Wealth Management & author of a new book, "The Right Mountain: Practical Wisdom for Achieving True Wealth." Listen: tinyurl.com/yz6zzv93 Watch: youtu.be/1cjGwxNEvFo
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
From the Trend Following replicator: "Whoever coined the term trend following honestly owes a huge apology to everybody in this business." [laughter] @andrewdbeer1 Trend following is one of the most accurate descriptions of an investment strategy ever coined. youtu.be/-IvPOjyFFBk?si=bmO6…
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
Chasing Skew in Trend Following We analyzed more than 1,500 trades from a futures trend program to dig into one of the most praised characteristics of CTA funds… positive skew. Our findings suggest that the positive asymmetry often credited to trend following isn’t quite what investors actually experience day in, day out… Interestingly, our results are in line with what Robert Carver @investingidiocy (former Portfolio Manager at Man AHL) and Eric Crittenden (Founder and CIO of Standpoint) have pointed out. The full article, including the program’s trading rules, is available at the link in the first comment. 👇
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
This is not the type of sector rotation you tend to see in healthy market environments.
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
Minimize downside risk.
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THIS WEEK IN TREND | 9 OCTOBER 2026 More Markets Rose. Fewer Trends Persisted. Twenty-eight of 49 futures markets finished higher, twice the previous weeks number. Yet the TTU Trend Barometer slipped to 50%, while the SG Trend Index climbed to +16.14% year to date. A reminder that rising prices and persistent trends are not necessarily the same thing. For trend followers, the opportunity lies in persistence, not predicting direction. Read the full report: atstradingsolutions.com/this… #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #GlobalMacro #OutlierHunting
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
Selling everything at the close of day 5 to day 8 kept 85% to 95% of what the 10-day trail made. Working on a new article which I think will make most swing traders rethink their sell rules 🧙‍♂️
Sell into strength or let it run? Whatever you decide comes with a side effect This is the first data I have seen that says how big that side effect actually is 👇
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
Investing Quote of the Day: "I would rather lose half my shareholders than lose half my shareholders’ money." - Jean-Marie Eveillard
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
Avoid the trap of taking suboptimal trades because trades that meet your entry conditions are not materializing. - Jack Schwager @jackschwager 130/n lnk.to/marketwizardsnextgene…
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QuantifiedStrategies.com
@QuantifiedStratOct 15
Learn from your mistakes, but don't dwell on them; focus on improving your future trades - Linda Bradford Raschke
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The exhaustive study of charts has been the pathway to success for many successful traders. - George Coyle @gfc4 129/n lnk.to/marketwizardsnextgene…
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
Quote for the Day: “Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be.” -Jack Welch #KFQuoteForTheDay
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QuantifiedStrategies.com
@QuantifiedStratOct 13
Successful trading is about capital preservation first, and capital appreciation second - Alexander Elder
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
AQR: When inflation news dominates growth, bonds fail to diversify equities. Instead, commodities step up.. offering true diversification against both stocks and bonds. 📉📊 @soberlook thedailyshot.com/subscribe/
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Systematic Investment Research & Education retweeted
When the exit hits, it might be volatile.
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"I made my first investment at age eleven. I was wasting my life up until then." - Warren Buffett
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