Following up on an interesting post by @choffstein. I wondered how the combination of 50% NTSX (90% stock/60% bond, 150% exposure), 25% ASFYX (managed futures trend) and 25% GLD (gold) would have done since 2019 when NTSX was launched. The result was impressive: 14.26% CAGR with max drawdown of -7.30%, compared to 10.87% CAGR with -20.85% max drawdown for VBIAX.

Amazing Eagles concert at The Sphere Las Vegas last night!

Here is another view, showing $SPMO vs $SPY total return YTD. The decline in $SPMO from the peak in June was substantial, but YTD total return is still about 10% ahead of $SPY.

Commodities and energy stocks tend to outperform during periods of increased CPI inflation. The table below was included in this weeks edition of The Felder Report.

This new piece from Noah Beck at Research Affiliates points out the fundamentally weighted indices outside of the US are and have momentum. Valuations are actually getting lower despite outperformance compared to their benchmarks. researchaffiliates.com/insig…

@Ed_of_O @dpinsen @NateSilver538 @TheStalwart

US investment factor premiums by decade from the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbooks 2026

Fundamentals win out in the long run. Deep value (cheapest 20%) of equities among the top 1000 US stocks are trading in the 4th percentile of their historic valuations. As @CliffordAsness has posited as The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis (chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/assets.realclear.com/files/2…), it may take longer now but value-based stock picking will likely be rewarding for those with (a lot of) patience.