Statistical Data Analyst , Statistical programmer, Applied statistician & Bio-statistician. ⛔No Private messages 👉 🚫📩❌.
Irbid city Of Jordan
Joined October 2017
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Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
ECMWF 🇪🇺🇬🇧has upgraded their world-leading weather model open-source data (that's free to you and me) to 0.1° --> full resolution!
Amazing news for the world, weather map makers --> enormous improvements for machine learning, forecasting, everything. 🎉
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
Ojo! Porque si que aparece la probabilidad de sufrir otro episodio de lluvias torrenciales a medio plazo @Statisticizer
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
You may be right, Christian! The Angular Momentum Harmonic suggests that GLAAM (Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum , or the AAM/GI index) could peak around October before declining rapidly thereafter, followed by a possible positive trend in December. Using Historical Analog Ensemble. The Transverse line represents the climatological mean for autumn ( near 0.48 standard points anomalies) .
The corrected GLAAM series, based on NOAA's corrected index and reconstructed back to 1850, also suggests a declining trend, with negative values around November. However, a subsequent recovery in December, potentially returning to positive territory, remains possible.
The key question is whether this projected evolution of global atmospheric angular momentum could provide additional clues about the development of the polar vortex and the potential for Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events in the coming months.
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
Is there more to predicting polar Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) than the conventional ENSO binary paradigm (El Niño/La Niña)? Could space-weather-related processes play a role that we still do not fully understand or know how to define?
Space-weather parameters spanning the past 100 years appear to have signaled both the unusual early-November SSW event and the November 2025 event and four months ahead of time .
Could these signals reveal a potentially overlooked predictive link between space weather and stratospheric dynamics?
Not only that, but also historical space weather parameters were able to reproduce at least 300 Possible autumnal and winter SSW events for the past 250 years - using statistical rigorous methods and long monthly timeseries of solar and angular momentum factors as well as length of the day and climatic teleconnectivity variability factors . ( under study for validation) .
🔎 xitter.cf/Statisticizer/status/2…
🚨The Polar Vortex stretching/elongation associated with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) over the Arctic is beginning to materialize, with signals pointing towards early November — as anticipated in my forecasts published four months ago, based on solar space weather, magnetospheric activity, and atmospheric parameters .
🔎 Check the comments for links to the original forecasts and analyses.
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
In addition if correct this means the highest 3 month running period would fall short of several other strong events. ( dont use the word super, its a media hype term)
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
Hodhodata | @Statisticizer
What if this forecast had threatened to disrupt the power grid toward the end of October, as projected?
The forecasted Bz and geomagnetic indices for 24–30 October are estimated to reach 8.8–10.5 times their climatological expectations for this period.
🔗 xitter.cf/Statisticizer/status/2…
The ongoing solar storms have been unfolding in line with my statistical forecasts issued approximately a month ago, consistent with the verification of my previous forecasts.
Yet @NWSSWPC continues to overlook my warnings and forecasts, which I believe have anticipated developments reflected in their outlooks by weeks to months.
I acknowledge that my forecasts can become wrong, and I welcome a better evidence-based physical explanation if one is available. But the past 12 Months forecasts had generally verified very well!
@911NewsBreaks
🌐⚠️☢️🧲 A G3-level geomagnetic storm, with the Kp index exceeding 7, is currently smashing Earth at the meantime, with radio blackouts and GPS disruptions possible on both the dayside and nightside. Aviation is another area that warrants close attention.
My question is: if a geomagnetic disturbance of this magnitude is already producing such interference, what could the stronger geomagnetic waves I forecast for (25–27 October — 🧲🚨 strongest window) potentially bring if they materialize as predicted?
According to my forecasts, the two anticipated geomagnetic disturbances are approximately 8.8 times higher (↗️) than the expected space-climatological mean for that period of the year . If this forecast materializes, the associated solar-wind conditions could be substantially more energetic than climatologically expected, potentially involving higher solar-wind speeds, enhanced proton fluxes, and stronger X-ray or shock-related signatures.
I must admit, I find it difficult to fully appreciate the potential impacts of these projected disturbances, particularly when comparing them with the ongoing event, which @NWSSWPC describes as moderate.
⚠️ The actual impacts would depend on the disturbances' intensity, duration, magnetic orientation, and interaction with Earth's magnetosphere. A corotating interaction region (CIR), if involved, could further complicate the resulting geomagnetic response.
These are conditional projections, not confirmed future events although they had great success and hit rate 🎯since I have started doing them 2025-2026 . Their actual severity and consequences will depend on the solar-wind parameters observed as the forecast window approaches.
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
I have read exactly the same comment hundreds of times over the past six years, said either way or another. Ironically, those who wrote it never came back to write it again!
Thank you for engaging anyways!🙏
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
حياك الله أخي رائد، وشكرًا على ملاحظتك واهتمامك. لم يسبق لأحد أن أشار إلى هذه النقطة طوال ست سنوات، رغم أنني أوضحها في كل نشرة. ما يظهر في الخرائط هو احتمالية تراكمية (Cumulative Probability) ناتجة عن التجميع الجبري للاحتمالات، وليس احتمالًا مستقلًا و حتمي لكل منطقة .
أستخدم الشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية (ANN)، وطرق التصنيف، وأشجار القرار (Decision Trees)، إلى جانب أساليب إحصائية وحسابية أخرى، لتحديد الأيام والأشهر والمواسم التي تتشابه مناخيًا مع الفترة الحالية، بالاعتماد على أرشيف مناخي طويل يمتد لأكثر من 300 عام.
ورغم أن السجلات المناخية المعروفة على نطاق واسع تبدأ عمومًا من عام 1850، فقد عملت، اعتمادًا على خلفيتي العلمية، على إعادة بناء بعض المعاملات المناخية والفلكية وصولًا إلى عام 1640 ميلاديًا، بفضل الله، وهي زكاة علم لا أكثر.
الهدف من هذا العمل هو الكشف المبكر عن فرص الهطول المطري ومخاطر السيول والفيضانات المحتملة عبر أربع قارات، بالاستفادة من الأنماط التاريخية المتشابهة، وليس تقديم تنبؤات حتمية. مع ذلك نسبة دقتها طويلة المدى بفضل الله تصل ٩٢٪
شكرًا مجددًا لاهتمامك وتعليقك القيّم.
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
The year 1997 is a candidate analog for early winter, but not necessarily for late winter or spring, and may therefore be unsuitable for those months.
In analog modelling, individual analog years should not be treated as stand-alone seasonal forecasts. Other years, such as 1983 and 1957, may serve as useful analogs for December or January while ranking less favorably for November and spring. This is precisely why I use dynamic analogs, allowing the most relevant analog patterns to vary across months and evolving climatic conditions.
Structural analog methods can sometimes rank La Niña winter months as good analogs for moderate or even strong El Niño conditions . Climate variability is more complex than a simple El Niño–La Niña dichotomy; a rigid black-and-white ENSO paradigm is therefore insufficient for robust analog-based seasonal forecasting, especially for reconstructing the finer weekly and daily reanalyses.
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
Luis, I have to admit you are right! Our seasons across the Mediterranean have changed considerably over the past 38 years. Autumn seems to linger longer, often at the expense of winter and spring. It no longer starts or ends when we would traditionally expect it to.
Winter is certainly no longer what we remember from the 1970s. Since 1979, seasonal patterns have changed substantially, with prolonged autumn conditions seemingly reluctant to give way to winter, shorter winters, and springs with fewer rainy days per month.
The seasonal rhythm we grew up with has changed, and the transition between seasons seems increasingly irregular.
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
Very similar interim winter findings from @severeweatherEU and @judah47.
However, I expect the challenge of finding suitable analogs for a super-El Niño 2026 to become more manageable during 2027. Once January is underway, we enter a rather different climatic universe—at least in terms of cadence and evolving background states.
I have noticed that Severe Weather Europe has used a few modern-era analogs for the subsequent winter, whereas many more analogs can potentially fit 2027 when the structural, multivariable climatic context is considered—including space weather, PDO, ENSO, PNA, atmospheric angular momentum ( LOD) , AMO, and other snow advance and polar factors.
xitter.cf/judah47/status/2107604…
xitter.cf/severeweatherEU/status…
Using a limited analog pool can certainly be useful for excluding partly unsuitable years. However, applying too many restrictions can also produce a knee-jerk reduction in the analog spectrum and occasionally miss some unexpected outcomes, or even bring unwanted surprises.
@Recretos @Superchri90
The new October forecast for Winter 2026/2027 is in, keeping the Super El Niño on pace to reach record strength.
In the latest long-range data, much of the United States is trending colder and snowier, while Canada and the northern U.S. stay on the mild side. Europe looks mild and wetter overall, with the best snow chances in the north and at higher elevations.
There's also an interesting Polar Vortex signal pointing to a potentially more active second half of winter. You can also check the latest month-by-month outlook maps for your own region in the new Winter Explorer.
severe-weather.eu/long-range…
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
اقدم اسم لملك على ارض الاردن
الملك صادوق
الذي قابل سيدنا ابراهيم عليه السلام وهو ملك العماليق من ارض الاردن وكان على الديانة التوحيدية
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
The actual cooling may begin later in the month, with intermittent warmer periods still possible between 15 and 24 September. Rossby-wave patterns can sometimes become a curse rather than a blessing, as warmer air masses may remain quasi-stationary for several days before being displaced by colder anomalies advancing from the north and west.
In a nutshell, I believe the more persistent colder conditions could develop anytime between approximately 18 and 26 September. This does not, however, imply that warmer days will be completely absent during this period.
The colder anomalies appearing over North Africa may partly reflect increased cloud cover and humidity surges associated with Atlantic moisture. The resulting circulation is not necessarily always from the northeast. Under certain configurations, a strengthened Azores High can help steer colder frontal systems southwestward and then northeastward, allowing them to penetrate from the west/southwest rathe
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
I have an intuition that Japan and north amd south America volcanic faults may show some raised activity, regardless of how intense they might erupt, particularly Japan. Historical records and estimated propensities I am using puts them as candidate regions although I prefer not make posts about them in order to not promote fear. – at Irbid, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
Europe braces for a significant weather shift, with severe storms and falling temperatures as summer heat fades.
severe-weather.eu/global-wea…
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
The current Niño 3.4 pause does not necessarily mean that the warming episode has ended. The subsurface structure suggests that there is still considerable oceanic heat available to support further surface warming.
Physically, the redistribution of subsurface heat and the associated thermocline changes can precede and sustain subsequent surface warming. This does not have to occur simultaneously across all Niño regions. Niño 4 could continue warming while the eastern Pacific temporarily lags, with Niño 1+2 and Niño 3 subsequently responding as the subsurface heat is redistributed.
This raises the possibility of an increasingly mixed eastern/central-Pacific El Niño structure during December–February, rather than a simple, simultaneous warming of all Niño regions.
Interestingly, my reconstruction from 38 historical analogs between 1750-2025 produces a pattern consistent with this possibility:
a temporary August- September pause → renewed warming afterward → further strengthening toward late autumn/winter.
Therefore, I would not interpret the current Niño 3.4 stagnation as evidence that El Niño has peaked. It remains a candidate for another rise after September, particularly if the subsurface reservoir continues to couple to the surface.
My 38-analog reconstruction of the pattern is shown here:
And importantly, this is a hypothesis from the analog reconstruction and ocean dynamics—not a certainty. The next few weeks of Niño-region evolution should tell us whether the proposed second rise actually materializes. – at Irbid, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
🚨#HeadsUp Analog Ensemble ENSO Outlook — Updated August 2026
I constructed this ENSO analog ensemble using 42 historical analog years spanning 1640–2025. The regional Niño SST trajectories show a clear warming tendency through the remainder of 2026, although the rate of warming differs between regions.
A particularly interesting feature is the temporary plateau in Niño 4 and Niño 1+2 SST anomalies during July–August, followed by renewed strengthening later in the forecast period. This temporary change in the rate of warming may help explain some of the uncertainty and apparent variability and awkwardness seen in operational ENSO forecasts during August.
The broader signal remains notably warm. Niño 3 and Niño 4 are projected to strengthen more rapidly from September through December, with the positive anomalies potentially continuing into early 2027.
The multivariate MEI analog forecast supports this evolution, showing a gradual rise from near-neutral/negative values early in the year to approximately +0.5 during July, +0.6 in August–September, and around +0.85 to +0.9 by November–December. This suggests that the warming signal is not confined to SST alone but is also reflected in the broader multivariate ENSO state represented by the analog ensemble.
The RONI analog forecast is even more pronounced, rising steadily from near-neutral conditions in the first part of the year to approximately +0.45 in August, +0.60 in September, +0.75 in October, and above +0.9 during November–December. Thus, both the RONI and MEI analogs independently support a continued strengthening of the warm ENSO signal toward the end of 2026.
This is also broadly consistent with the current NOAA assessment, which in August 2026 described El Niño as strengthening and expected it to persist into Northern Hemisphere spring 2027.
Another notable feature in the regional analogs is the gradual westward expansion of the warm anomalies. This may help explain why both a central-Pacific-based warm configuration and a more east-Pacific-based configuration remain plausible toward the end of 2026.
Overall, the three components of the analog analysis — regional Niño SSTs, MEI, and RONI — point toward a progressively strengthening warm ENSO state through autumn and winter, while retaining some uncertainty about where the maximum SST anomalies will ultimately become centered.
This remains an analog-based statistical projection, not a deterministic forecast using predicted & corrected historical mean anomalies for 42 analogs between 1640-2025 , and their actual values on the observed real universe may exceed or be less than those forecasted but hopefully the general trend will hold .
The evolution of the tropical Pacific, particularly the spatial distribution of warming and the atmospheric response, will ultimately determine how the event develops.
Statistical Analog Modelling & Downscaling
Mr. M | @Statisticizer
hodhodata.com
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Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
This resonates with some analyses I previously conducted for colleagues and physician friends in Saudi Arabia, looking at the impact of seasonal air pollutants on pediatric asthma admissions and 30-day readmissions.
One of the signals we were particularly interested in was the strong seasonal component around the spring and autumn equinox periods, when several air pollutants ( and certain viral strains) can reach elevated levels alongside recurrent desert dust and sand-storm activity—roughly March–May and September–late October. The seasonal signals were supported from a statistical stand point.
The hypothesis was that this combination of prolonged seasonal exposure and episodic dust events might contribute not only to acute asthma exacerbations and hospital admissions, but potentially also to subsequent readmissions, during equinoxes when temperatures drop sufficiently also for some viral strains to spread.
Unfortunately, most of the physicians I worked with were reluctant to pursue these hypotheses, largely because obtaining sufficiently reliable daily and seasonal air-quality data was difficult. There was also some understandable hesitation about taking a more complex environmental-exposure hypothesis into what can be a challenging peer-review process. In the end, several preferred to focus on their longitudinal clinical analyses rather than explore these additional hypotheses.
Looking back, I still think the seasonality of pollutant exposure, and its interaction with desert dust events is a particularly, interesting avenue for research, especially in regions such as Saudi Arabia where conventional seasonal air-pollution patterns can differ substantially from those in North America or Europe.
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
طوال ربع قرن، من 1876 إلى 1902، ظل العالم في مجاعات وأوبئة وموت. #الفيزياء_المناخية
والذي حوّل تلك البلدان إلى مقابر: حكومات استعمارية متسلطة كانت تحتكر وتصدّر قمح الجياع أضعافا مضاعفة
لا حاجة لأن يحرف المناخيون القضية إلى "ظواهر مناخية" لأن ذلك تزييف للتأريخ وتبرئة للدكتاتورية.
Hodhodata@statistics retweeted
2022 NOBEL PRIZE QUANTUM PHYSICIST JOHN CLAUSER: CLIMATE SET BY EARTH'S SELF REGULATING CLOUD COVER, NOT CO2!
'Contra the IPCC and other major institutions, he argues that climate is primarily set by what he refers to as the “cloud cover thermostat,” a self-regulating process whereby more clouds start to enshroud the Earth when the temperature is too high, and vice-versa. Although he accepts observations showing that atmospheric carbon dioxide is increasing, he believes that gas’s effect on heat transfer is swamped by a great natural cloud cycle.
“It [the carbon dioxide] may or may not be made by human beings,” Mr. Clauser said. “It doesn’t really matter where it comes from.”
The physicist believes that objective science on climate has been sacrificed to politics. The preeminence of politics is all the worse, he said, because so much money has already gone to climate.
“We’re talking about trillions of dollars,” he said, adding that powerful people don’t want to hear that they’ve made “trillion-dollar mistakes.”
Now you can see proof of this in the linked post below the image.
Here is PROOF that the 21st-Century warming was 100% caused by the observed increase of Earth's absorption of solar radiation due to a decreasing planetary albedo:
The attached graph shows two official measured data series: changes in absorbed solar radiation (ASR) according to NASA CERES Project, and changes in global temperature according to 3 surface data sets.
Diving the observed temperature trend (0.261 K/decade) by the observed ASR trend (0.876 (W m-2)/decade) produces an EMPIRICAL estimate of the climate sensitivity to ASR, i.e. 0.261/0.876 = 0.298 K/(W m-2).
Compare this data-based climate sensitivity to a theoretical estimate produced by the independent and objectively derived model by Nikolov & Zeller (2024: mdpi.com/2673-7418/4/3/17), their Eq. 15b (see second attachment). The modeled sensitivity is 0.297 K/(W m-2), which virtually identical to the empirical one!
Since the Nikolov-Zeller model only quantifies the response of Global Temperature to ASR without including any GHG "radiative forcing" or "positive feedbacks", the perfect agreement between empirical and theoretical climate sensitivities strongly suggest that the 21st-Century warming was solely caused by the observed decrease of Earth's cloud albedo without any measurable effect of "greenhouse gases".
This implies that the GHG "radiative forcing" generated by IPCC's climate models is NOT real and there are no amplifying feedbacks operating in the climate system!
