🎯🎯This was observed in Valencia and Alicante during Storm #Adam last 24 hours , when residents across the Valencian Community were advised to stay indoors. Those flood events were communicated and warned on my page weeks ahead-using a statistical analog ensemble analysis! ⏭️⏳🚨Here is another potential scenario to watch for in early December 2026 : a similar pattern could recur, potentially affecting areas further inland across eastern Spain -should my tentative estimates hold and materialize on the real observed universe. 📌 Bookmark this video. I will share more maps and updated analyses as we get closer to #December. This is an early probabilistic outlook, not a a deterministic forecast.

⚡️🚨🌪️🌊 After the current storm #Adam in the Mediterranean western basin, numerical weather prediction models are now hinting at another Mediterranean storm developing around the middle of the final third of October, with the potential to evolve into a hurricane-like structure known as a #medicane close to southern #Italy and #Libya coastlines. Interestingly, this emerging signal aligns with my statistical analog forecasts, which highlighted the possibility weeks before numerical weather prediction models began capturing the same patterns. To me, this reinforces the idea that the atmosphere has a memory—a tendency for certain weather patterns to recur when the necessary ingredients and underlying conditions come together. Atmospheric configurations leave their imprints in the climate system, and when similar conditions re-emerge, these patterns can be born again and again across time. This is the fundamental idea behind my statistical analog forecasting approach: the past is not simply a record of weather events; it can also provide clues to the atmospheric patterns that may unfold in the future. The coming model updates will be crucial in determining the system's potential track, intensity, and whether it could develop genuine medicane characteristics. It is still too early to confirm its eventual evolution, but this is a situation worth monitoring closely especially GFS, ECWMF and CMC models agree on its evolution from now. 🚨Also, to note that Black sea Medicanes can also happen northern Turkiye with published previous destructive events known in history . #Mediterranean #Medicane #WeatherForecast #StormAdam

🔴🚨 Euro-Mediterranean Flood Risk Forecast ( 10-24 October) . The attached four cards show the predicted normalized rainfall probabilities for the period 10–24 October. For this analysis, I am trialing, for the first time, data from a new reanalysis service, Pyreweather (pyreweather.org) , combined with statistical downscaling and an analog ensemble approach. The analog ensemble consists of 18 modern-era seasons since 1950 that may approximate the current season in terms of multivariate and structural climatic characteristics. The attached cards cover the following periods: • 10–14 October • 15–18 October • 18–20 October • 21–24 October In the cards, the 🔴 red-highlighted regions enclosed within ⬛️black boxes indicate areas estimated to have an elevated potential for episodes of torrential rainfall when considering the analog predicted normalized rainfall estimates for the given periods . Such events may generate substantial surface-water runoff and increase the potential for flooding, particularly in low-lying areas, valleys, river basins, and locations with inadequate rainfall drainage. These are probabilistic model estimates rather than deterministic predictions, and the highlighted areas should therefore be interpreted as regions of potentially elevated rainfall and runoff risk rather than as precise forecasts of specific flood events. Use these forecasts along your local meteorological and numerical weather prediction models to anticipate flood risk. NB/ The normalized propensities of rainfall are preferred here to identify the regions with maximum predicted rainfall cumulative rainfall within the specified periods . Hoping this prediction will succeed and be useful for people in affected regions ( nominated in the comments) . 🔴🙏Kindly share those forecasts ♻️, early warnings save lives and porterty! warmest regards Mr. M. @Statisticizer

🚨The Polar Vortex stretching/elongation associated with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) over the Arctic is beginning to materialize, with signals pointing towards early November — as anticipated in my forecasts published four months ago, based on solar space weather, magnetospheric activity, and atmospheric parameters . 🔎 Check the comments for links to the original forecasts and analyses.

🚨⛈️ As forecasted: France 🇫🇷 has experienced record-breaking torrential rainfall across the southeastern part of the country over the past 5- 24 hours , record breaking denotes exceptional torrential rainfall & drenches with high density within a short periods of time . 🚨Further episodes of torrential rainfall remain possible over the coming days, potentially continuing through 24 October, the end of the current forecast period. No images of flooded areas have emerged yet on X. ⏳⏲️Looking further ahead, central France could also be at risk of additional heavy rainfall in the coming weeks. Please refer to my other forecasts for November, which highlight the combined influence of terrain, atmospheric convection, and synoptic-scale weather systems in driving these rainfall events. Be safe!🙏 Mr. M @Statisticizer