RFI enhances RAND's ability to understand complex global challenges through advanced forecasting capabilities.
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Joined March 2020
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RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
@INFERpub will challenge your brain, teach you about the world, and connect you with other curious people!
This was my favorite question of this month:
On 31 May 2025, will NVIDIA be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
infer-pub.com/questions/1414…
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Our March #newsletter shares several recent highlights, including:
🤝a partnership with @RANDCorporation & @INFERpub
📊a workshop during a @BertelsmannFdn transatlantic relations event
🏛️2 experts' take on forecasting for national security
Read more >> bit.ly/3Vlvfcd
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Our latest blog explores the value of crowd forecasting for #government and #industry.
🔄This methodology builds a cycle of information, in which experts can tap into a crowd's collective intelligence to bolster decision analysis.
Learn more >> cultivatelabs.com/posts/the-…
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
vox.com/future-perfect/2024/… Wide-ranging piece about the crowd forecasting space with some nice mentions of our @INFERpub project
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Forecasting platform @INFERpub is now being run by @RANDCorporation, taking over from @umdARLIS
@INFERpub is an excellent source of predictions on AI, Iran & Taiwan, among others
(It will continue to use @cultivatelabs tech)
We are pleased to share that #INFER is now led by @RANDCorporation. We look forward to this new chapter that will enable INFER to leverage #RAND expertise in our mission to advance the #forecasting capability of the US govt.
See our announcement>>infer-pub.com/the-pub/rand-p…
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Our @INFERpub project published its latest forecast on the likelihood of Iran developing a nuclear weapon. You can download the report here (pdf): bit.ly/3PYztSS
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Thank you for sharing my advice. I love seeing people grow. Given the challenges of the human species and the Earth that we inhabit, we need as much foresight as possible. INFER shares our forecasts with world leaders and the public via this Twitter feed, a good reason to join us
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Notice anything different about our binary forecast question interface?👀
We recently launched an update for binary questions to now show both "yes" and "no" answer options, rather than a single "yes" option.
Learn more in our latest blog >> bit.ly/3J0IhF6
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Meet INFER - a mobile app for #crowdsourced #forecasting, where you can submit forecasts, review forecast questions, and submit and update forecasts and rationales cultivatelabs.com/posts/intr… - via @cultivatelabs
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Thanks @GianlucaSgueo for the spotlight on @INFERpub and our work to bring crowdsourced insights to U.S. policymakers 🙌
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
If I were a betting man (which I am), I'd wager INFER is the open forecasting platform with the best chance of significantly impacting major policy decisions.
Honoured to be named to their first cohort of "all stars", alongside some truly gifted forecasters 🙏
10 outstanding INFER Pros were recently named All Stars for the 2023 season.
Read more about the new designation >> bit.ly/3K1JZqs
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Excited to see this unique collaboration between our 2 governments!
INFER is launching a collaboration with Cosmic Bazaar, the crowd forecasting program run by the UK’s Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment.
Forecast questions will focus on #biofuels and the #futureoftheInternet.
Learn more: bit.ly/3Iuj85R
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
I'm pleased to be in the top five on several of these leaderboards, and kudos to others on the pro team appearing in several, such as @dkcoutant and @cmeinel
Just released...
Check out who made it onto our Best of 2022 list, highlighting forecasters who topped our leaderboards in various categories including most accurate and best overall participants! bit.ly/3l0XVXF
#INFER #crowdforecasting #leaderboard #bestof2022
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
I'm so happy to announce our partnership w/ our longtime colleagues at @cultivatelabs, & @INFERpub! Last week our company @pytho_io launched the pilot for the Cognitive Training System we built for INFER's forecasters; this Thursday, we launch our 1st live training Zoom! #OSINT
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
TY for the insightful and fun Fireside chat today @INFERpub Beth Sanner. Great to hear @AndyKilianski thoughts on #biosynthetics for fuel and chem industries. Best quotes "the living world is going to keep throwing us curve-balls" & problem solving by "diversity of thought"
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
One week away! Looking forward to seeing everyone virtually at 1pm ET next Wednesday #biotech
Have you registered for next week’s Fireside Chat yet?
Don’t miss out on the chance to hear @AndyKilianski, Senior Director for Emerging Infectious Diseases at @IAVI, discuss the impact of #SyntheticBiology on society: bit.ly/3vJCaOz
#SynBio #BioEconomy
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Excited to talk about the future of the #bioeconomy via #syntheticbiology with the @INFERpub team! Very timely with the recent CHIPS Act and it’s impact on #EmergingTech @WHOSTP
Don't miss our next Fireside Chat with Beth Sanner as she talks with expert @AndyKilianski about the many implications of #SyntheticBiology to our life and what it means for U.S. policy.
Register today and join us on August 24 at 1 PM EST: bit.ly/3vJCaOz
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
With a dedication to all members of the forecasting community (forecasters from @Metaculus, @INFERpub, @GJ_Open, @superforecaster, @pytho_io, @Hypermind_com and others) and with special thanks to @PTetlock @bamellers @dgardner, @AnthonyNAguirre and all who made it possible.
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
We turned "pre-mortems" on today for several of our forecasting platforms like infer-pub.com/activity - interesting to see people's own rationales for why they may be wrong. Will be even more interesting to aggregate for decision makers. If only people IRL did this all the time.
RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Nice write up in Maryland Today @UofMaryland about our partnership with @umdARLIS on the @inferpub project today.umd.edu/project-seeks-…