Author of the One-Armed Pundit Substack https://xitter.cf/t.co/tSYzhBHl4c Pro forecaster at @Metaculus and @INFERpub (michal_dubrawski)
Poland
Joined August 2011
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@TomChivers thank you for the conversation! This time I really wish I was wrong, but things look as they look. I am practically certain that they won't stop with annexing Donbas alone. I hope I am wrong. I am not a Superforecaster but I put a lot of work into this forecast.
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
Ever wanted to learn how to forecast like a top forecaster? Now is your chance.
ExMateriae, a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, will host a free walkthrough in which he moves step-by-step through his reasoning process on a single forecasting question.
🗓️ Saturday, April 11
⏰4-5pm CEST / 10am EDT / 7am PDT
📍Discord (link below)
It’s a rare chance to learn from one of the best; ExMateriae was ranked #1 on both the baseline accuracy and commenting leaderboards for 2025.
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
I took @davidhagmann's idea, and made a thing!
If people like this and/or subscribe, I'll try to keep going or automate this.
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
I’ve known many talented forecasters over the last 35 years. And Warren Hatch is among the most modest about his achievements & most gracious in sharing credit
A gentleman and a scholar in the truest sense
This quoted post is unavailable.
The NonProphets: @rdeneufville, Scott Eastman and Atief Heermancee are back with the new podcast episode, and they use their forecasting superpowers on the US Presidential Election! open.spotify.com/episode/3kL…
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
The scientific method isn't only for scientists. It can help us all learn faster.
Study of 759 startups: teaching scientific thinking boosts revenue. Founders become quicker to abandon bad ideas.
A key to good judgment is treating plans as hypotheses and choices as experiments.
I stared a new series on my blog. If you are interested, read "The Forecaster's Bookshelf: Books About Forecasting - Part 1" open.substack.com/pub/onearm…
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
The results in "LLMs Are Superhuman Forecasters" don't hold when given another set of forecasting questions. I used their codebase (models, prompts, retrieval, etc.) to evaluate a new set of 324 questions—all opened after November 2023.
Findings:
Their Brier score: .195
Crowd Brier score: .141
We've created a demo of an AI that can predict the future at a superhuman level (on par with groups of human forecasters working together).
Consequently I think AI forecasters will soon automate most prediction markets.
demo: forecast.safe.ai
blog: safe.ai/blog/forecasting
ALT Mock-up. Forecasting is _not_ currently integrated into X.
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
My new book, “The War for Ukraine” is now available at Amazon and USNI Books. It explores Ukrainian, Russian & western #strategy and #adaptation since Feb 2022. All my royalties from sales will be donated to Ukrainian charities & crowdfunders. @USNIBooks #Ukraine
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
Can we figure out how to incentivize not just accuracy of forecasts but also quality of questions? Here's a new FRI report that describes a conditional tree method of generating high-quality questions that beats business-as-usual on a major forecasting platform. I hope this will jumpstart vigorous competition from which “super-questioners” might someday emerge
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
On The @PowerVertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful @KofmanMichael to break down Ukraine's Kursk offensive. powervertical.org/2024/08/22…
Superforecasting Rap #2 - my second AI song about the principles of Superforecasting: suno.com/song/fb1e9f7a-702e-…
My attempt at creating a Superforecasting Rap song with AI (ChatGPT + Suno) based on some some key insights about forecasting process from @PTetlock @dgardner the Good Judgment Project @TLiptay and @foxyforecaster suno.com/song/0def8172-1cf8-…
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
Superforecaster Vijay Karthik is a technologist, engineer, and one of the first Superforecasters from South Asia at Good Judgment. From analyzing obscure topics to debiasing, his insights are a must-read for aspiring forecasters.
goodjudgment.com/about/our-t…
#Superforecasting
My attempt at creating a Superforecasting Rap song with AI (ChatGPT + Suno) based on some some key insights about forecasting process from @PTetlock @dgardner the Good Judgment Project @TLiptay and @foxyforecaster suno.com/song/0def8172-1cf8-…
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
Ukraine's path to survival then victory all starts and finishes with the protection and replenishment of the Ukrainian infantryman. No high-tech weaponry can help if there is nobody left to man the zero line. My latest, from there, for @KyivIndependent:
kyivindependent.com/eye-of-t…
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
She predicted the Tet Offensive during the Vietnam War but nobody listened to her.
Dr. Doris 'Lucki' Allen, who changed the way intelligence is done, passed away at 97 trib.al/2M1EZDT
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
An update on my US election model 🇺🇸
DNOM: 90% Biden, 7% Harris, 4% Other
POTUS:
* Trump: 64%
* Biden: 31%
* Harris: 4%
* OtherD: 1%
Expected Biden result: D+0.2 (80%CI: R+2.8 to D+3.1)
p(Biden wins EC) = 32.6%
p(Biden wins popular vote) = 60.1%
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
Pro forecaster @DippySkippy, works in high-value philanthropy investing in London, and shares why participating on INFER is important to him.
See forecasting lessons from him and other top forecasters >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson…
Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 retweeted
We're making @metaculus open source: Soon you'll be able to audit, critique, and build on our code.
We want to live in a better epistemic environment, and we can get there faster working together: metaculus.com/notebooks/2507…
