@Hypermind_com

Prediction markets since 2000 (previously NewsFutures).

 New York - Paris - Madrid
hypermind.com
Joined May 2014
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Hypermind retweeted
Ochlosophe@ochlosopheOct 15
Candidats à la présidentielle ? 🔴 Mélenchon 98% ⚫ Le Pen 95% 🌹 Glucksmann 90% 🟡 Philippe 88% ⚫ Zemmour 85% 🔴 Roussel 78% 🔵 Lisnard 69% 🔵 Retailleau 63% 🟡 Attal 30% ⚪ Villepin 28% 🟢 Tondelier 23% 🔴 Ruffin 21% 🌹 Hollande 17% 🟡 Lecornu 4% ⚫ Bardella 3% ⚫ Maréchal 3%
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Lend your brain to Ukraine! Glimt is a joint project of the Swedish and Ukrainian governments, powered by Hypermind, open to everyone. Perhaps the first use case of crowd forecasting as a weapon of war against evil. Join us here: glimt.nu/glimt/en/welcome.ht… @kikollan @NunoSempere @jorgebmontanes @PTetlock @robinhanson @JamesSurowiecki @JustinWolfers @IgnatiusPost @pennockd @DavMicRot @Scott_E_Page @page_eco @GlimtCommunity @FOIresearch
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Tuesday morning Election 2024 forecast landscape: Skilled forecasters panels favor Harris, betting platforms favor Trump, and statistical models have no idea.
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Final pre-election day forecast landscape. Skilled forecasters give an edge to Harris. Betting markets (except PredictIt) give an edge to Trump. Statistical models occupy the toss-up middle-ground.
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Harris' chances continued to improve overnight. Interestingly, the US-based mrkts give her better odds (51% avrg) than the foreign-based mrkts (46% avrg). She's the favorite of the skilled forecasters panels (Hypermind, Good Judgment, Metaculus), with 55% probability avrg.
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Accelerating Kamalamentum in the last few days before the vote.
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Comparative analysis of Harris vs Trump forecasts over the last month. @GJ_Open @superforecaster @metaculus @FiveThirtyEight @TheEconomist @ManifoldMarkets @PredictIt @Betfair @Polymarket @Kalshi
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It is remarkable that our prediction market is now (Oct 26) the only crowd-forecasting or statistical model that still gives Kamala Harris slightly more chances of winning (54%) than losing. All others are now favoring Trump more or less boldly.
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Join the FIGHT to make the most accurate forecasts about swing states and congressional control! New contest launched today with > $1,000 reward. predict.hypermind.com
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Are the "real money" markets out of line?
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In today's Wapo, @IgnatiusPost mentions an intelligence estimate that looks very much like an OVERestimate compared to the prediction market's at the time. Just one data point, of course, but it's so rare to be able to compare these things...
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The 2nd assassination attempt on #Trump has had no impact on his chances to win the election as estimated by our prediction market. This is in stark contrast to the uplift he got from the first attempt. #newnormal ?
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Our prediction market thinks that @realDonaldTrump's chances of winning back the White House (33%) are lower than at the same point in time in 2020 (37%) and 2016 (40%). @KamalaHarris @VP is in better position to win than Clinton (pre-Access Hollywood tape) or Biden were.
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Today, on our prediction market Trump's chances of winning back the White House reached a new low, about 33%. In fact, they are as low as Biden's chances on the day that he dropped out of the race in July.
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A few hrs post-debate, our prediction market has @KamalaHarris @ 59% chance of winning, a full 20% ahead of @realDonaldTrump. The "real money" markets likely suffer from Trump bias syndrome: @Polymarket (49% KH) @ManifoldMarkets (52% KH) @Betfair (52% KH) @PredictIt (56% KH)
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Now this question remains...
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As predicted !
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Our probability map for the US election is updated daily with forecasts from of our elite prediction market (not a crypto bro hangout) as well as our new AI Forecasting Machine: tfm.hypermind.com/ai/electio… We're making elections forecasting great again!
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Just added some new forecasting questions on Russia and US politics 👇 predict.hypermind.com
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"Collective intelligence is about using other people's stupidity to compensate for your own" Our e=mc² for great crowd forecasting is @Scott_E_Page's diversity theorem It shows that while expertise counts, diversity counts AS MUCH to reduce error more: xitter.cf/softwareinblue/status/…
softwareinblue@softwareinblue7 Nov 2022
In episode 19 @ctindel and @smayzak talk with @emiless2012 about #collectiveintelligence and how leaders can implement it in their organization using the @Hypermind_com platform. This interview will change the way you think about the world! youtu.be/GsIbvABEGF0
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