@Hypermind_com

Prediction markets since 2000 (previously NewsFutures).

 New York - Paris - Madrid
hypermind.com
Joined May 2014
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Hypermind retweeted
Ochlosophe@ochlosopheOct 15
Candidats à la présidentielle ? 🔴 Mélenchon 98% ⚫ Le Pen 95% 🌹 Glucksmann 90% 🟡 Philippe 88% ⚫ Zemmour 85% 🔴 Roussel 78% 🔵 Lisnard 69% 🔵 Retailleau 63% 🟡 Attal 30% ⚪ Villepin 28% 🟢 Tondelier 23% 🔴 Ruffin 21% 🌹 Hollande 17% 🟡 Lecornu 4% ⚫ Bardella 3% ⚫ Maréchal 3%
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In today's Wapo, @IgnatiusPost mentions an intelligence estimate that looks very much like an OVERestimate compared to the prediction market's at the time. Just one data point, of course, but it's so rare to be able to compare these things...
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Recently, I have written how Russia’s strategy for Ukraine is evolving (again), as well as the potential impacts of winter. Looking beyond the next few months, what might Russia’s options be for 2023, and what are the vulnerabilities Ukraine can attack? 1/24 🧵
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Forecasting newsletter for July 2022: forecasting.substack.com/p/f…; highlights in thread.
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Forecasting newsletter for June: forecasting.substack.com/p/f…. Oxford Workshop on Longterm Forecasting happened, track record of science-fiction authors unearthed, forecasters surprised by ML models' math ability jump. Highlights in 🧵.
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Qui présidera la #CommissionDesFinances de l'#AssembleeNationale ? (% de probabilité) 🔴 Eric #Coquerel (#LFI) 80% ⚫ Philippe #Tanguy (#RN) 20% 🌐 predict.hypermind.com/dash/d… 🗳️ #politique 🇫🇷 #France
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#legislatives2022 Prédiction dans le mille 🎯 😌
Ochlosophe@ochlosophe5 Jun 2022
Combien de ministres seront battus aux #legislatives2022 ? Probablement 3 (sur 15) 🌐 predict.hypermind.com/dash/d… #Abad #Attal #Beaune #Benin #Borne #Bourguignon #BraunPivet #Darmanin #Dussopt #Fesneau #Gerini #Grégoire #Montchalin #Riester #Véran 🗳️ #legislatives 🇫🇷
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How should we best predict whether disease outbreaks and epidemics will turn into pandemics? New insight from @BathSofM colleague @fotpetr (with @M_O_F_C and Neophytos Stylianou) in the International Journal of Forecasting. @IIForecasters @ORMS_Elsevier sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
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Our encyclopedic article on forecasting is available for free. We offer an overview of many theoretical and practical areas of forecasting. Either you are a student, a seasoned forecaster or a forecast enthusiast, this article has something for everyone. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast…
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With a dedication to all members of the forecasting community (forecasters from @Metaculus, @INFERpub, @GJ_Open, @superforecaster, @pytho_io, @Hypermind_com and others) and with special thanks to @PTetlock @bamellers @dgardner, @AnthonyNAguirre and all who made it possible.
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Quel #gouvernement suite aux #legislatives2022 ? (% de probabilité) 🟨🟨🟨 #Ensemble 75% 🟦🟨🟥 #Coalition 21% 🟥🟥🟥 #NUPES 4% 🌐 predict.hypermind.com/dash/d… 🗳️ #legislatives #France 🇫🇷
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We're excited to share ACM's announcement for the Collective Intelligence Conference 2022 this October 20th-21st from the @mpib_berlin. This year's fully virtual conference is still accepting papers. See you there! #collectiveintelligence #datascience #ai lnkd.in/eDEXd-Vy

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Qui sera (ré)élu aux #legislatives2022 ? (% de probabilité) 🔵Éric #Ciotti >90% ⚫Nicolas #DupontAignan ≈70% 🟡Damien #Abad ≈70% 🔴Cédric #Villani ≈50% 🟡Jean-Michel #Blanquer ≈30% ⚫Éric #Zemmour ≈20% 🟡Manuel #Valls <10% 🌐 predict.hypermind.com/dash/d… 🗳️ #legislatives 🇫🇷
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In play-money markets, all traders start with the same initial endowment, so the only way to accumulate wealth is to make correct bets, making this assumption is somewhat warranted.
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6/ A useful way to think about it is the wisdom of crowds, as popularized by @JamesSurowiecki. For accurate results, you need a/diversity, b/aggregation, and c/incentives to all be in place properly. Inefficiency occurs commonly when diversity breaks down. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wi…

The Wisdom of Crowds - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org
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NEW PAPER! Crowd Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters, with Jens Witkowski, Barb Mellers & @PTetlock. ACM EC'22 Covers: 1.CDA v. LMSR prediction markets 2.Superforecasters in polls v. super-markets 3.Skill spotting in markets/polls 1/n bit.ly/superpolls_supermarke…
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How the collective intelligence of @Hypermind_com's prediction markets outsmarted (again) the opinions polls in the French presidential election. hypermind.com/en/accuracy-pr…
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Yes! It's hard to draw sensible lessons from history when our policy failures have the status of undeniable facts (pandemics, wars...) & our successes are easy-to-dismiss counterfactuals (to see how well we’ve done, you have to imagine how much worse it could have been)
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀
@peterwildeford15 May 2022
The preparedness paradox is perhaps the most important bias today - when preparedness works, it looks like preparedness was unnecessary. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prepar…
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What is #dataviz animation good for? A thread with examples.
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I want to create a brief overview of useful tools for research. Any further tips? As of now I'd include intros to - Zotero - connectedpapers.com - Google Scholar - Preregistration (aspredicted.org) - Research code (goodresearch.dev/) - Mturk or Positly
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