Founder @hypermind_com - Prof @TheSchoolofCI Collective intelligence and prediction markets
Joined April 2012
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Un projet des gvrnmts suédois & ukrainien, sur une plateforme de sondages prédictifs @Hypermind_com. Ouverte au monde entier, en 🇫🇷🇬🇧🇸🇪 L'intelligence collective comme arme de guerre contre le mal : glimt.nu/glimt/fr/welcome.ht…
@gernelle @mathieulaine @sebastienlefol @guillaumeerner
E J Servan-Schreiber retweeted
Lend your brain to Ukraine! Glimt is a joint project of the Swedish and Ukrainian governments, powered by Hypermind, open to everyone. Perhaps the first use case of crowd forecasting as a weapon of war against evil. Join us here: glimt.nu/glimt/en/welcome.ht…
@kikollan @NunoSempere @jorgebmontanes @PTetlock @robinhanson @JamesSurowiecki @JustinWolfers @IgnatiusPost @pennockd @DavMicRot @Scott_E_Page @page_eco @GlimtCommunity @FOIresearch
I have a feeling this will not even be close.
It looks like there is consensus on Harris trending back up in the final stretch. @Hypermind_com is still the most optimistic for her vs @polymarket the most pessimistic.
Comparative analysis of Harris vs Trump forecasts over the last month. @GJ_Open @superforecaster @metaculus @FiveThirtyEight @TheEconomist @ManifoldMarkets @PredictIt @Betfair @Polymarket @Kalshi
Herding behavior or crowd wisdom? There is cognitive diversity in the sense that all these platforms operate quite differently (geography, demographics, rewards, etc.). Yet, they may not think really independently of each other (except 538).
When we forecast, we win!
Join the FIGHT to make the most accurate forecasts about swing states and congressional control! New contest launched today with > $1,000 reward. predict.hypermind.com
In today's Wapo, @IgnatiusPost mentions an intelligence estimate that looks very much like an OVERestimate compared to the prediction market's at the time. Just one data point, of course, but it's so rare to be able to compare these things...
E J Servan-Schreiber retweeted
The 2nd assassination attempt on #Trump has had no impact on his chances to win the election as estimated by our prediction market. This is in stark contrast to the uplift he got from the first attempt. #newnormal ?
Tired playbook?
Our prediction market thinks that @realDonaldTrump's chances of winning back the White House (33%) are lower than at the same point in time in 2020 (37%) and 2016 (40%). @KamalaHarris @VP is in better position to win than Clinton (pre-Access Hollywood tape) or Biden were.
E J Servan-Schreiber retweeted
Our probability map for the US election is updated daily with forecasts from of our elite prediction market (not a crypto bro hangout) as well as our new AI Forecasting Machine: tfm.hypermind.com/ai/electio… We're making elections forecasting great again!
How the collective intelligence of @Hypermind_com's prediction markets outsmarted (again) the opinions polls in the French presidential election.
hypermind.com/en/accuracy-pr…
Par rapport aux 143 sondages "rolling" publiés entre le 1er février et le 22 avril concernant un duel Macron-Le Pen, la prévision collective du panel @Hypermind_com - @LePoint était plus proche du résultat final dans 128 cas, soit 90 % des fois. lepoint.fr/presidentielle/ma…
Large-scale proof of the super power of forecasting crowds, in one short video.
😷Forecasting Covid-19 is hard
Too many variables, too many unknown unknowns, too few data.
We teamed up with @skirkell from @JHSPH_CHS to put the wisdom of a crowd of 652 medical and forecasting experts to the test.
🎯It beat every single individual
youtu.be/wFKPJd3SqCM