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The'weathershot retweeted
8pm Video Update: High Impact Nor'easter on track.
Here is the latest for the storm that will impact the region Sat morning through Sunday.
The'weathershot retweeted
FRIDAY NIGHT STORM UPDATE: Play by Play
Rain enters the area by daybreak, just an appetizer
Expect a lull in the action tomorrow afternoon
Main event tomorrow night though Sunday...heavy rain, gusty wind, big coastal impacts
The'weathershot retweeted
It's a bit of a misconception that SAL is always a hurricane killer. The stable/dry air associated with it can slow systems down, but strong waves (that often layer turn into hurricanes) kick up SAL. The low SAL this year is associated with weak waves due to strong subsidence over Africa and a weak African monsoon.
The'weathershot retweeted
Up and down this week for East PJM CDDs...not record heat in most cases, but well hotter than 10Y and 30Y normal (dashed black lines below).
The'weathershot retweeted
Our next potential candidate wave in the Atlantic is currently around 5 degrees East longitude, and will move off the coast Monday sometime. Some ensembles are showing some signal for development, though the environment still looks pretty marginal. A Kelvin wave will be crossing the basin in 7-10 days, which could give this wave a boost, but we'll see if it can survive the dry air and subsidence to take advantage.
The'weathershot retweeted
🔵 There's no question that the North Atlantic cold blob, linked to AMOC, has become more persistent in recent decades 🔵
The current cold blob has remained for about a year, coinciding with a negative AMO, which is associated with less northward heat transport in the Atlantic.
The'weathershot retweeted
Some medium range modeling disagreement for week two, but at least general agreement for north-based warmth, as southern tier stays cooler and mostly wetter.
The'weathershot retweeted
The amount of people upset that a tornado outbreak didn’t happen today is honestly ridiculous.
When severe weather doesn’t materialize the way it could have, that’s a good thing. Yes, it may mean the setup didn’t fully come together the way forecasts suggested, but the alternative would have been communities dealing with destructive tornadoes, injuries, and lives permanently changed.
Forecasting is about preparing people for the potential of dangerous weather. If the worst-case scenario doesn’t happen, that’s something to be grateful for, not disappointed about.
The'weathershot retweeted
Our first AM Ag Weather Report of the season was today and one key note following the very active stretch in early March: Dry Time.
Should be a decent stretch of less active weather to get outside work done ahead, but expect the E. Ag Belt to roll right back into an active pattern to close March.
The'weathershot retweeted
New Nam isn't finished processing yet but it continues to double down. Look at trend in amping this. Focus on Tenn. Incredible
The'weathershot retweeted
That's right... get those ridiculously overly optimistic red and orange colors out of the Northeast US!
We are staying cold.
#wxtwitter #wxX
The'weathershot retweeted
Surprise! Chris Broyles has released his Tornadogenesis website, with all his thoughts and dozens of meticulous, interactive illustrations. His studies support and inspire work from myself and @wxkylegillett . Be sure to check out his "3D Analysis" page:
tornadogenesis.org/
The'weathershot retweeted
Alright this week...cold 🥶...tough better than last week. Two shots at *minor* snowfall.
IMAGE 1: First is with a weak wave Tuesday night - Wednesday AM. Likely would not be a huge deal normally, but ground is super cold, so flakes will stick. Precipitation simulation are very light with it, limited moisture. Coating to 1" possible in spots my best guess right now.❄️
IMAGE 2: Second is with a clipper passing far north on Friday night. We typically do much better here with snowfall when the central clipper passes closer to us. Cold front comes through with it, but mountains often eat up most of that moisture. Scattered snow showers possible. Spots that see them maybe a coating.
IMAGE 3: Some of the better longer range models suggesting a respite from all this crazy cold by the middle of NEXT week. We're talking 40s and if we're lucky, some 50s. Would be good for a little thaw!
IMAGE 4: Models a little more split towards mid-month. Best signals are for a -NAO blocking regime and a fading 50/50 low. If southwest energy gets ejected east, it will have to pass under this block. This would be your next shot at something more than a coating *somewhere* in the East...HOWEVER it is far from an ideal setup. You're need a few things to shift around as we get closer in if you want the shot at more snow. But we're talking the mid-month here...so models are not going to be great with the pattern just yet.
We'll keep you posted! Stay safe and stay warm!
The'weathershot retweeted
Elaborating on this point a bit more:
As the saying goes, "all models are wrong, but some are useful." Each model has its own set of biases & weaknesses and strengths, which forecasters leverage to try and get at a better forecast.
The NAM has many weaknesses for sure - it's too slow with precipitation onset as was the case here, and accordingly underestimated front-end snow totals.
But one of its strengths is resolving mid-level warm layers and warm air advection, and when it has a good handle on the synoptic evolution of the storm, it does well with the sleet extent, as was the case today.
When we say things like this, we don't mean "use the NAM exclusively" or "the NAM is always right", but that it does well with this aspect of forecasting winter storms.
Replying to @burgwx
The sleet has been advancing slightly faster than even the NAM nest modeled at this point.
I’ve repeatedly tried to say this in spite of relentless harassment over the last few days — the NAM nest excels at northward sleet extent when it has the synoptic evolution correct.
Replying to @nynjpaweather
@nynjpaweather so Nam was correct with sleet?
The'weathershot retweeted
As I have done every night this week, I will say a prayer for my fellow meteorologists who are all working just as hard as I am to get this forecast right and for all those who are hoping for snow instead of sleet 🙏
I’ve felt your pain in the past and I know how it feels. I want everyone to be happy, but sadly I know that is rarely ever the case.
~Meteorologist Mark Margavage
#wxtwitter #wxX
The'weathershot retweeted
Great cold, overrunning setup. Certainly indications of suppression for our area which would lead one to favor the Piedmont/SE US for the heaviest snows. But a key modulator is the TPV feature in S-Canada which can be quite fickle on models. Check back later in the week.





























