amateur wx forecaster primarily focused on NJ/NYC/EPA. Occasionally dabbling in biology/metabolic heath. All views expressed are my own.
New Jersey, USA
Joined June 2017
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
This nor’easter is forecast to make just 10 miles of net northward progress over 37 hours from late Saturday to midday Monday 🤯
The storm's pit stop near New York and New Jersey will keep water levels elevated through several high tide cycles, leading to major coastal flooding.
Mike Mostwill retweeted
18z Euro AIFS is certainly something... the trend for a stronger, slower, tucked ULL just off the NJ coast seems to be coming to fruition. This will worsen impacts on Sunday from the eastern shore to NYC, with impacts being felt as far west as the DC/Balt region. Big hit for NJ/NYC. #MdWx
This. Beach erosion from this system will likely be awful in places with repeated bouts of moderate coastal flooding causing problems. The LLJ will engender the higher impact surface winds. But the strength, placement and duration of that is TBD. Periods of hvy rain as well. – at Denville, NJ
I generally keep this account to weather and a few other niche arenas. Though for today, a brief crossover share from my IG page as we reflect on this day, 25 years ago.
Signal is there for training cells⛈️ today across the area, especially in NNJ into SNY. Some of those areas have already seen rainfall on the order of 0.75-2"+. Severe weather and flash flooding dual threat today, though the latter seems to be more prominent for NNJ on east.
Mike Mostwill retweeted
I am decently confident somewhere between Perth Amboy, NJ and Saratoga Springs, NY will walk away with double digit rainfall totals. We don’t know who exactly, and it will be isolated, but this is the perfect environment for something like that to happen.
Mike Mostwill retweeted
A significant event is looking more likely Saturday. Multiple rounds of storms expected, which may begin before noon and extend after sunset. There is a significant risk of wind damage, w/ a notable risk of flooding & potential for tornadoes. See reply post for larger graphics.
Mike Mostwill retweeted
Can’t get over how wild this is. Disturbance rapidly fires off storms as it encounters a likely boundary setup at the edge of thick Canadian wild fire smoke.
Mike Mostwill retweeted
HRRR model simulated vertically integrated smoke from tonight through 12pm on Thursday. Oof.
Mike Mostwill retweeted
A string of wildfires that has erupted across Northern Minnesota and Southern Ontario is going to be a major player in our air quality here over the next few days...
Mike Mostwill retweeted
These precipitable water values are quite concerning for tomorrow. We shall see what happens tomorrow.
Mike Mostwill retweeted
It's fair to say New York City narrowly dodged a bullet today. Sitting between 2 intense bands on the Raritan Bay to LI and near I-84, NYC experienced subsidence while 15 miles S of Midtown saw very heavy rain. Why the location of these super bands matter yet are hard to predict.
