Here are the numbers you want to see while evaluating the predictive claims of the data people on here about AZ early voting based on comps to 22:
How many early voters this year voted in 22, but did not vote early? What percentage of those voters are reliable voters? Meaning, their voting timing has likely changed because of organizing efforts but they aren't some sort of surge demo.
Ducey said he’s so partisan he had no problem supporting Wendy Rogers after she spoke at a nick Fuentes rally & called for her political enemies to be hung because she was at least “better than a Democrat.”
And not sure you should be campaigning on Sinema’s judgment these days
In case you don’t believe me because I’m a Dem listen to @treyterry who is an R. We both agree it’s problematic to read too much into early votes this cycle in az. Only thing I’d add to his post would be to consider when people vote along side how people vote.
A thread to expand on my point: (1/5)
It's tempting to read a lot into early returns this cycle in Arizona, but I'd be careful about drawing any real conclusions from them this year.
There are three things to look at with turnout. How people vote, how many people vote, and which people vote.
Compared to 2024, this election will likely look similar in how people vote. More people are comfortable voting early and by mail again. But it will look nothing like 2024 in how many people vote, because a midterm draws far fewer voters than a presidential year. And it will look different in which people vote, because the voters who show up in a midterm are not the same mix as a presidential electorate.
Compared to 2022, it will look very different in how people vote. In 2022, many Republicans were told not to vote by mail and not to trust early ballots due to unfounded election conspiracies pushed on the right, and that changed how the early numbers looked. Turnout will likely come in under 2022 with low enthusiasm and no Senate race. But which people vote should look fairly similar.
How, how many, and which. All three are moving at once, so there's no clean year to compare against.
Now in big contrast to 20 and 22, in 2026 we see vote early featured as a huge part of the GOP candidates and TPUSAs final closing message, though some static is thrown in by the Maricopa Recorders Office and other hungry grifters that are fed by putting our election system in doubt. I imagine that will change gop behavior at least some. Maybe even a great deal.
Throw in Dem fears that Trump’s USPS will muck with mail ballots and from my perspective there is less of a core “vote early” message coming from our candidates and that adds more variables.
And finally consider that it’s new that now ballots that are dropped off can be accounted for faster if a voter shows ID and that’s another wrinkle. (4/5)
But are my assumptions above correct? I don’t know. But that actually proves my point further.
A final point: i am not saying early voting isn’t important. From a GOTV perspective the campaigns that bank the most early votes free up resources for ballot chase to go after the voters who need the encouragement to vote since they don’t have to bug otherwise reliably voters to get their ballots in. As a Dem I want more of our people turning their ballots in, and right away. But my overall point is trying to make guesses based on past performance is very flawed. (5/5)
Tony Cani retweeted
Every newsroom has a social media policy.
What’s most telling is when they choose to enforce it.
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Tony Cani retweeted
In NV, DOJ said it found 16K noncitizen voters. When NV asked for a list, DOJ sent 185. NV checked those and found all of them were actually citizens.
In CA, DOJ first said it found 190K noncitizen voters. Now, it says 20K. Told CA officials they had 48 hours to check, then sued
.@USAttyEssayli for @USAO_LosAngeles to @FoxNews on the complaint against California over its voter list: “When we're telling them you have 20,000 non-citizens on the voter rolls, you're going to be diluting the votes of American citizens. Their response is, ‘It's too late; we already mailed the ballots.’ That's not how the law works, and we're going to go to court. This is a matter of law…All we are asking them to do is sequester the ballots.”
In this post Heap claims 80% of people bringing in their ballots are opting to have them ID verified & stamped rather than dropped off.
This is a new option & is yet another reason why breathlessly comparing day by day returns to 22 & 24 to forecast outcomes is problematic.
EARLY VOTING UPDATE:
Today, we received approximately 80,000 early ballot packets. All packets were processed, and signature verification was completed by 2:00 p.m., breaking our previous record!
We continue to see higher daily voter turnout at our early voting locations compared to previous elections.
Now that the Recorder’s early voting staff are informing voters of their options, more than 80% of voters bringing in their green early ballot envelopes are choosing to have them ID-verified and stamped. This is a dramatic increase from the Primary and clear evidence that voters welcome this new option.
HAPPY VOTING!
So you don't have to reward the clickbait Twitter post: Twenty years ago, Hermes was against abortion. Now he supports abortion rights, and the top abortion rights organizations in the state have endorsed him for Phoenix City Council.
Ed Hermes is endorsed by Planned Parenthood in his Phoenix City Council bid but once said he opposed almost all abortions. azcentral.com/story/news/met…
You are going to get whiplash on this hellscape if you read any analysis of AZ early returns as predictive in any way.
It’s way too early for that AND az voter behavior has been in flux over the last 4 or 5 cycles to the extent that anyone’s big proclamations shouldn’t be trusted because they rely on very weak assumptions.
Wonder if Warren Petersen will mock this the same way he mocked Katie Hobbs needing to get security during his cyber ninjas audit due to credible threats against her life.
BREAKING Arizona Capitol's Executive Tower evacuated after Secretary of State's office received envelope with white powder that was opened by staff, per @AZSecretary.
Agree. Partisan registration should become the top priority for local and state dem parties. We should not measure our local party impact by how many PCs we have or even how many doors we knock (even though both are impt). It should be how many completed dem registrations we collect.
Sean famously (in my own head at least) said he wasn’t worried about Trump II because the billionaires who funded Trumps election would keep him in line.
Said it on a radio show we were both on shortly after the 24 election. @broomheadKTAR agreed with him.
I was just speechless.
Guess they were both wrong.
Trump and Andy Biggs were on stage together today, but they're singing a different tune behind closed doors.
Watch @andybiggs4az's top consultant @SeanNobleAZDC admit that Trump and Biggs' policies are crushing Arizona families:
"Affordability is nonexistent. Nothing is affordable."
So we can presume then that Sam called the FBI after his office was caught moving voting equipment when they were not supposed to?
Since as he says below “when questions about potentially fraudulent activity in an election come to light the proper reaction is not for the organization at hand to clear themselves, but to bring in an appropriate outside investigative agency to do it.”
kjzz.org/elections/2026-06-1…
1. Do I think anything nefarious was at play in this situation?
No
2. Did I recommend and contact the FBI and MCAO immediately to pass what we had been given on?
Absolutely did. Would do it again. Every time. Because when questions about potentially fraudulent activity in an election come to light the proper reaction is not for the organization at hand to clear themselves, but to bring in an appropriate outside investigative agency to do it.
3. Brahm asked why we didn’t just tell Scott Jarrett
We did, via MCAO, immediately authorizing them to share what we received with MCED and BOS
So what Brahm is really wanting, and some members of this board are leaking to him to try to get, is MCRO to play the duck and cover game that has already cost one group of BOS members and two Recorders their seats
Sorry, not sorry. Never gonna happen
You’re not going see me drawing any conclusions (at least publicly) from early vote returns in AZ, especially not this early.
One of the things that happened in 2022 was Republicans were certain after election night that Lake was going to close the gap enough to overtake Hobbs because that’s how the votes came back in 2020.
But their prediction didn’t come true in 2022 because voter behavior by both Democrats and Republicans changed pretty significantly. Democrats were not returning ballots as quickly as they had in 2020 and were reverting in part to their previous cycle habits of turning mail ballots in later and a large chunk of MAGA Republicans, who had a mail ballot in hand, refused to vote it and instead voted ballots at polling places which were counted faster than if they were late returns.
How people cast their vote is too in flux to draw meaningful conclusions at this point and how people vote is in flux in large part due to turnout strategies by both political parties and things like how complicated a ballot is or how quickly mail is being processed.
It’s just wild how these AZ Republicans think nobody will remember when they themselves either explicitly called for political violence or refused to condemn violent threats made by their allies.
azmirror.com/2025/09/25/john…
This is the result of years of leftist propaganda.
This nut job actually believes the false narrative set by the Democrats.
He has not, any shread of evidence, charges or convictions... still thinks its true.
Now he will be investigated by law enforcement, probably sued. This is a result of the Marxist Democrats.