top-3 endowment investor. the world is a productive asset. mostly bullish, always prepared. tyj. disclaimer: I do not own an NFL team.
Whatever’s working
Joined October 2021
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Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
The S&P 500 is now in bear-market territory..
..the valuation, that is. P/E has contracted from 23.2x a year ago to 18.7x today.. .that's just about a 20% de-rating @dualityresearch
Multiple is the cheapest since Liberation Day April 2025
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
For now, I am giving this cyclical (and secular) bull the benefit of the doubt, assuming (hoping?) that the stellar earnings momentum is not about to mean-revert. I suspect that the “melt-up” phase of this bull (since April 2025) may have ended in early June, but perhaps that is just a pause in the momentum during the seasonally weakest timeframe (July-October). I’ll stick to my 60/20/20 playbook, which has held up quite well, even though it diversifies away from the mega cap theme.
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
Volatility on misunderstood newsflow seems endemic to AI:
Deepseek.
Liberation Day.
Kimi.
SALP.
Gross to net confusion for Anthropic.
OpenAI taking share from Anthropic.
Gross to net confusion for OpenAI.
A mistranslation of Hock Tan’s comments yesterday.
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
Two wolves inside the market present are fighting each other
AI - this once a century technological revolution - about to go into recursive self improvement and radically change the structure of knowledge economy forever leading to a productivity boom….
Juxtaposed with
bond yields - step function change higher relative to a large global debt stock we haven’t seen this combo in the modern global economy.
Equities discount the residual value of everything.
“Everything” has a wide cone of outcomes due to these two wolves.
be prepared for anything, which is to say, be diversified
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
Hmm. Let’s think for a second.
Why are the frontier models cutting price? Might it possibly, just possibly, be a result of the fact that they are losing share to open-weight models?
Given positive elasticity, their price cuts are clearly good for AI infra demand.
Open weight models are positive for AI infra demand, exhibit 1002.
And obviously the semiconductor companies and cloud companies would fund open-weight training if necessary. Jensen already is!
OpenAI and Anthropic have locked in years of compute at below market prices. Other companies would happily assume these commitments at *higher* prices.
Also I’ve always wondered if “missing the forest for the trees” is an idiom, a proverb or an aphorism. Do you have a nuanced view on this?
I am going to ask everyone this question from now on when appropriate.
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
Hewlett Packard Enterprise ($HPE) targets low-to-high 50s% annual revenue growth in data center networking through F2029, outpacing an addressable market projected to expand at a 44% CAGR. This marks a sharp acceleration from earlier 15% market growth estimates, driven by hyperscaler demand for liquid-cooled 800G and 1.6T switching architectures across AI clusters. Underpinning this expansion, the group secured a $1.2 bn AMD Helios rack order from Vultr for scale-up switching and expanded a gigawatt-scale infrastructure contract with Oracle. Management expects Helios to generate over $1 bn in revenue across the next two years, though realization speed hinges on component delivery schedules and data center deployment timetables. #HPE #Networking Report date: 2026-10-05 · GS
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
It is becoming obvious that AI is impacting the labor market.
Going back to mid-2025:
-Finance + Tech industries -246k jobs.
-All other industries +812k jobs.
This dynamic will most likely intensify next year and expand into other industries.
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
$HPE SECURES $1.2B VULTR ORDER FOR $AMD HELIOS AI RACKS; RAISES NETWORKING OUTLOOK
HPE secured a $1.2B order from Vultr for AMD Helios AI Rack systems, its first order for the new platform.
HPE raised FY27 Networking revenue growth guidance to high-teens to low-20s %, with a high-teens CAGR now expected through FY29.
By segment through FY29:
Data Center Networking: low-to-high 50s % CAGR
Routing: low-to-high 20s %
Campus & Branch: high single digits
Security: high single digits
HPE also raised expected Juniper cost synergies to $800M annually by FY28, from at least $600M previously.
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
cerebras is schrodinger's cat
$CBRS
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
yeah kind of weird and intentionally misleading.
cerebras has some of the fraudiest marketing. reminds me of Nikola.
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
cerebras may be the most hf-held trashco with de mininus terminal value regardless of success probability
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
amazing to me cerebras wafers are so good yet they can’t sell without giving equity to the buyer
feels like series a at $45bn
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
Bernstein on CXMT: “We believe a new fab of max capacity at 100k wpm is being built in Shanghai now, & is due to begin production early next year. There is no mention of this fab in any company filings”
Models capex rising 70% YoY through ‘28 to $35B
CXMT capex is $ACMR revenue
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
Charles Dickens making sure his youngest son is aware of why he gave him a Bible
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
Literally every conversation I am having with America’s c-suite is about AI Sovereignty.
It’s not just about models, it’s about trust, it’s about the whole stack, it’s about taking back their decision rights.
The entire vibe has shifted
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
Open models continue taking share. Not just tokens, more $ now spent on open models than OpenAI.
Positive for the AI infra trade.
Open models taking share shift $ margin from the model layer to the infra and app layers.
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway:
🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6%
While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2).
(Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
on the other hand, political risk is improperly discounted in AI-leveraged names
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
I was asked to defend Hell at the Oxford Union. Here's what I said. Can I persuade 300 Oxford University students to take Hell seriously?
📰 Read the full text of my speech and find out who won the debate... 👉️ justinbrierley.beehiiv.com/p…