top-3 endowment investor. the world is a productive asset. mostly bullish, always prepared. tyj. disclaimer: I do not own an NFL team.
Whatever’s working
Joined October 2021
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dave tepper - hands down, GOATED investor
the only investor the other greats admire and respect and would not dare disrespect
he's also misunderstood... known as a great distressed investor, he's also a great macro investor... skates to where the puck is headed, full cycle
frontier closed api labs must do unnatural things for competitive reasons
open source is inevitable
I’m about to cancel Claude Code man I swear to God.
It’s REQUIRING me to sign in to a TEST account on LOCALHOST so it can QA!
This is absolute 🐴💩 !!
I am so close to cancelling my subscription and switching to Codex or open-source models that won’t slow me down.
I really don’t care for the extra intelligence cuz Fable isn’t that much better than Astra anyway. Neither is Opus 5.5 vs. 6.1 Sol.
I just got a taste of what these AI companies will do once they have power and it’s going to be a total dictatorship.
They will decide what you can or cannot do even though you’re paying for it and they’re stealing all your data.
This made me realize I really need to invest in my own infrastructure and have an unrestricted model to free myself from the chains of these AI overlords.
This is insane!
@AnthropicAI please do something about this!
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
The S&P 500 is now in bear-market territory..
..the valuation, that is. P/E has contracted from 23.2x a year ago to 18.7x today.. .that's just about a 20% de-rating @dualityresearch
Multiple is the cheapest since Liberation Day April 2025
america is toast. look at this guy. and they've got 9 billion just like this
Chinese bride gifts her partner a flagship GPU at wedding — he breaks down in tears
She handed him an ASUS ROG Astral RTX 5090 that costs around $12,000
Daave “3 and 30” Tepper retweeted
For now, I am giving this cyclical (and secular) bull the benefit of the doubt, assuming (hoping?) that the stellar earnings momentum is not about to mean-revert. I suspect that the “melt-up” phase of this bull (since April 2025) may have ended in early June, but perhaps that is just a pause in the momentum during the seasonally weakest timeframe (July-October). I’ll stick to my 60/20/20 playbook, which has held up quite well, even though it diversifies away from the mega cap theme.
Nearly impossible to say what the market is pricing in at divergences like this - with reference to s&p tech p/e now vs then.
But in hindsight it’s completely obvious.
not saying we’re going higher or lower, just saying the market probably isnt missing soemthing.
and if you want to say the blue sky isn’t priced in, I’ll just say the capital constraint is pretty damn obvious at this point and I don’t think 5tn market caps double overnight.
Bumpy roads ahead.
Still 65% net long and primarily ai.
1. Meta and major other enterprise customers moving away from Claude AGGRESSIVELY and
2. Distillation crackdown
But if you think that’s bad, wait til Zuck does a $100bn equity offering right before Anthropic prices it’s IPO
$meta
that "felt" like a capitulation, but haven't bought anything
still 24% cash
think the market will be deeply surprised by the upcoming nebius quarter but trump is fking retard and the next few weeks in middle east / oil headlines could be bleak
can confirm, anecdotally, houses in ski towns with beautiful water are in fact finally softening fast
Home values are falling, and falling fast in many markets.
On this 2021 new build, the seller bought for $550,000 near the peak.
And is now listing at $499,000 in an unapproved short sale.
However, the surrounding ZIP code in Atlanta has fallen 17% in value since purchase.
Indicating even bigger price cuts could be ahead.
In this case, the owner purchased with a low downpayment FHA mortgage in 2023 (2% down).
They tried renting it out, and now they're listing at a loss.
To see how much to offer on houses like this, use Reventure's listing tool: reventure.app/listingtool
hock is seriously wrong on the gpu vs asic argument. in capital intensive industries, the more flexible the asset base the better full cycle outcomes.
i'll extend it to the aircraft industry.
airlines are notorious serial bankruptcy filers.
here's the list of current u.s. airlines.
southwest has been a great airline over time, as has jetblue. what's unique about them?
they have effectively ONE, generalizable aircraft type each, and pilots are therefore trained across the entire fleet. no matter where the aircraft takes off or lands, it does so flexibly. no switching cost, no stranded capital.
gpu has a major operating leverage advantage vs asic reflected in risk-adjusted terms.
i know i know delta is doing great at the moment, have to look at cost of capital over a full cycle. southwest and jetblue have superior full cycle models.
as does the nvidia gpu
$nvda $avgo
Hock Tan and Lip-Bu Tan at DBS Bank Conference:
Hock Tan: "Most companies out there cannot find any bloody return on investment, im telling you, people are just wasting money, spending tokens, trying to understand."
Lip-Bu Tan: "If you look at the AI growth, a lot of concentration on two companies, and that is potential risk. And then you talk about China's lower cost of tokens, that is true. Right now, for example, in a US company, we try to deploy the AI and the token cost, if you don't control, is out of control. And so the token for a China frontier model is much, much lower and the adoption is very fast."
"Next 2-3 years, we don't see any slowdown. If there's anything that slows down, these are the few areas we are focused on. One is the memory shortage. Secondly, some of the subscriptions."
Via @BusinessTimes
$AVGO $INTC
$crwv debt trading 15% yields lulz
Not too late to sell the $crwv stonk and go long and strong nebius
in fact even though $crwv is now DOWN on the year and $nbis is UP 140%, $nbis still offers a great rel val
