Haley Meier WX

I’m not bullish on many things in regard to this storm, including whether or not it becomes a hurricane, but what I am bullish on? Tornadoes. I believe there will be a significant tornado threat accompanying any tropical cyclone that makes landfall along the Gulf Coast, hurricane or not. The environment is pristine for tropical tornadoes. The intense subtropical jet that may aid in weakening the system upon landfall will also provide ample upper-level shear to allow already rotating storms imbedded in rain bands to further tighten. Dry air will wrap around the system from the west and also attempt to weaken the system, but this will allow very unstable air to seep into the backside of the storm and inevitably intrude into the dirty side (east side), where rotating bands will be likely coming onshore. Models are picking up on SBCAPE values upwards of 4000 which will support isolated rotating storm development if this were to verify. Significant tornadoes (EF-2+) will be possible on the east side of the core and mini supercellular development will accompany bands coming onshore and even inland. This set-up is extremely similar to Milton and also rivals Isaias (2020), although that system I believe had less dry air intrusion. Alabama and Florida in particular, perhaps even Georgia, should monitor the progression of this event.