Nothing here should be considered investment advice.
Joined January 2020
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MicroValue retweeted
Remembering Welles Crowther, the Man in the Red Bandana, 25 years later 🙏
A former lacrosse player at Boston College, Crowther worked in the South Tower of the World Trade Center and is remembered today for his heroic actions during the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
On the day of the attacks, Crowther (who had experience as a volunteer firefighter) encountered multiple groups of survivors inside the Twin Towers and led them to safety, according to firsthand reports.
Crowther ultimately lost his life in the Twin Towers, but a New York Times article mentioning “a man in a red bandana” helped bring his story to light. Crowther always wore a red bandana under his lacrosse helmet. While rescuing victims inside the burning buildings on 9/11, he wore that signature bandana over his face to protect from the smoke.
Crowther’s red bandana has since become a symbol of his sacrifice, for which we honor him every anniversary of the tragic attacks.
With today being the 25th anniversary of 9/11, please take some time to reflect on Crowther’s heroic actions and the impact his story has on our country, as well as the game of lacrosse 🕊️🥍
MicroValue retweeted
Spread on $FONR privatization is way too wide.
- Highly asymmetric setup
- 23% spread with limited downside
- Controlling family has no reason to keep it public
- Def. agreement is likely soon
p.s. currently offering 30-day free trial to my blog, so be sure to check it out.
MicroValue retweeted
If wondering why banks are so weak, part of it is a legal complaint from $ZION around their charge off.
Basically nobody at Zions did their job for years, so some goons stole $60 million from them, like the time I lost my wallet and it got turned in but without the cash inside.
MicroValue retweeted
I don't own any BDC's, but the BDC squad is flashing a warning sign. All names in the toilet this year, and a lot of the sponsored BDC's like HSBD, CGBD, OBDC are absolutely tanking.
MicroValue retweeted
This is the story of the Man in the Red Bandana...
A former lacrosse player at Boston College, Welles Crowther worked in the South Tower of the World Trade Center and is remembered today for his heroic actions during the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
On the day of the attacks, Crowther (who had experience as a volunteer firefighter) encountered multiple groups of survivors inside the Twin Towers and led them to safety, according to firsthand reports.
Crowther ultimately lost his life in the Twin Towers, but a New York Times article mentioning “a man in a red bandana” helped bring his story to light. Crowther always wore a red bandana under his lacrosse helmet. While rescuing victims inside the burning buildings on 9/11, he wore that signature bandana over his face to protect from the smoke.
Crowther's red bandana has since become a symbol of his sacrifice, for which we honor him every anniversary of the tragic attacks.
Please take some time today to reflect on Crowther’s heroic actions and the impact his story has on our country, as well as the game of lacrosse 🙏🥍
MicroValue retweeted
If a company that trades at a large discount to intrinsic value signalled that it was going to sell, how much should it be up?
Well in the case of $FMBL, the answer is: "not at all". But, in fairness, the signal was very subtle and $FMBL is an illiquid stock. And, most people aren't paying attention. But I am!
This week the company sent out proxies for its 2025 annual meeting, with two very revealing items (see attached), namely reducing the voting threshold on a sale of the company from 80% to 65%.
$FMBL, family owned and essentially run like a private company for over 100 years, has always been known as a cheap bank that will stay cheap bc its OTC, conservative and mgmt won't sell. Well, I wanted to get a sanity check to see how meaningful this voting matter was - so I asked my good friend ChatGPT (isn't AI great?). Well, ChatGPT said in precedent situations that the probability of a sale after this type of change is somewhere between ~33-50%. But, the probability tends to be higher within the banking sector. Perhaps some of you reading this can share precedents!
My take is that the Walker family shareholders (4th thru 6th generation) are so diversified in their holdings and points of view, that Daniel Walker (Chairman) and Kenneth Walker (CEO) felt that they needed to lower the threshold to get around possible dissident family shareholders in the event of a sale.
But why would they do this all of a sudden? I think this also easy to answer. Daniel Walker and Kenneth Walker's father, Ken Walker, died earlier this year at age 97! (fmb.com/ken). The father started at the bank at age 11 and worked with CJ Walker, the founder of the bank! Since Ken Walker's death, we now have this voting change, and at the $QUCT annual meeting earlier this summer, they announced that all of a sudden they were going to finally push forward with selling the ranch, presumably to get $QUCT shareholders some cash.
$FMBL is trading at a large discount to its TBV, driven in part by HTM securities and a low coupon loan book, but also due to a conservative positioning and its OTC listing (and absurdly high share price). It seems that in the next few years (2026-2027+), much of the loan book should reprice and earnings should inflect meaningfully higher.
Meanwhile, Daniel and Kenneth Walker are getting older (70s) and they don't have kids that are in the company's executive ranks, so succession is an open question. My gut feel here is that the probability of a sale in the next few years is pretty high, maybe 70%+. In the event of sale today, I could see this business transacting at $9-11k/share (or higher) but that number would be higher in a few years too. $FMBL is a good, conservatively run regional with a decent base of non-interest bearing deposits. As an added bonus, it also probably owns a decent chunk of land at its branches (held at historical cost), which means real TBV could be a bit higher.
In summary, this voting item at the annual meeting seems to me to be a very interesting signal. It's hard to find deeply discounted (and relatively safe) values in this market. I encourage others to take a look.
cc: @PhilTimyan @thebankzhar @leveredvalue @colarion @Ron284Ron @StocksOddball
MicroValue retweeted
$NBY (+75.0% pre) NovaBay jumps after $6 million investment, new CEO
ooc.bz/l/74572
MicroValue retweeted
$MCEM CEO in its annual video update gave a strong forecast for $8 per ton price increase sticking and expectations for future price increases this year. It also guided to flat volumes this year. In addition he instructs any shareholders who want to sell their stock to reach out to the company. You can watch the full video here:
monarchcement.com/wp-content…
MicroValue retweeted
The story behind the "Man in the Red Bandana." ❤️🕊️
We are proud to honor Welles Crowther's sacrifice and share his story. Never forget the tragic events of 9/11.
MicroValue retweeted
$MCEM Announcement showed up on LinkedIn. Going to enter into a partnership with Evergy Energy Solutions for a 20 MW Solar project on its property in Humboldt, KS. monarchcement.com/4713-2/
MicroValue retweeted
"There are hunting grounds where one would want to look. We think real estate is an area with fundamental challenges...there might be opportunities to buy," says billionaire investor Seth Klarman. "On the whole, this environment feels like a 4 in terms of opportunity."
MicroValue retweeted
1/n) FRP Holdings reported earnings $FRPH
Aggregate revenue up 35.3% due to 1) acquisitions 2) 10.8% price increase, and 3) volume
DC apartment rent increases of 8% for The Maren and 4.5% for Dock 79 on renewals
Warehouses rent increase and lease up stabilization 100% leased
MicroValue retweeted
Another $100/share special dividend from Boston Sand & Gravel $BSND makes $200 in the last 9 months. Who says you can’t make money with boring stocks?
MicroValue retweeted
1/n) FRP Holdings $FRPH is compelling here 1) It is trading at about 60% of NAV 2) Pristine balance sheet with 33% of market cap in cash 3) Great management team 4) Assets with strong moats. IMO NAV grows at 10% a year, buying it at 60% of NAV gets you mid-high teens CAGR for.
