Forensic Analysis: SEC Filings & Tape,Decoding Options, Short data & Macro for Asymmetric plays. Learning one deep-dive at a time. Not Financial Advice

Trading somewhere on a beach
Joined November 2019
Tradelearner2022 retweeted
So here is the logic. Anktiva (IL-15) was ranked number ONE to cure cancer. Keytruda was ranked number TWO by NCI in 2007. Anktiva GROWS T CELLS. Keytruda takes the BRAKES OFF THE T CELLS. Eventually Keytruda fails since there are no T cells to take the brakes off. So if T cells could be replenished by GROWING T CELLS WITHIN YOUR BODY AS THE FACTORY and STIMULATED WITH IL-15 by growing T crlls together with NK cells, Keytruda can be rescued and allow T cells to work again and prolong life. Well that is EXACTLY what we showed in our lung cancer trials and our trial with over 10 different tumor types and presented this data to Saudi FDA… resulting in approval of Anktiva in combination with Keytruda to prolong lives of patients with lung cancer who had failed all standards of care and whose tumors were spreading and growing while on Keytruda! So in short the combination of number 1 with number 2 ranked molecules of the immune system is both biologically rational and logical based on their MECHANISMS OF ACTION. And last night @DrJBhattacharya mentioned loudly that FDA wants to accelerate approvals based on their doctrine of “plausible mechanism of action”. Anktiva’s mechanism has been validated by FDA themselves within the approved package insert! With regard to single arm trials: Number two ranked drug developed over last decade (with 40 FDA approvals and approved for multiple tumor types with SINGLE ARM TRIALS FOR MSI high for Merck). So when combined with the Number ONE ranked drug to rescue the number two, then magic happens. But it’s not magic… it’s the biology of your immune system… NK cells rescue T cells. The single arm trial with very mature data was accepted by Saudi FDA to enable their population to have access to this combination. This is the enlightenment that is needed! nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/NEJ…
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Tradelearner2022 retweeted
$VUZI-Headline: The Friday Hold & The CES Playbook 1️⃣ What Happened Today (Friday): The "Bullish Consolidation" Instead of the typical Friday sell-off, $VUZI held its ground. The Data: We successfully backtested and held above the $3.77 breakout level (previous resistance from Dec 23). The Signal: Closing the week >$3.80 confirms that smart money is willing to hold risk over the weekend. They want to be positioned before the CES headlines hit on Monday. Technicals: Daily chart shows we are still "walking the bands" (riding upper Bollinger Band), a sign of sustained institutional buying pressure, not just retail FOMO. 2️⃣ Next Week: The "CES Hype Cycle" (Jan 5-9) We enter the most volatile week of the year. Here is the likely roadmap: Mon-Wed (The Run-Up): Expect PR drops regarding the Ultralite Pro and Quanta partnership. The algo target is the $4.00 - $4.25 zone. If volume spikes >5M shares, we could see a squeeze toward $4.50. Thu-Fri (The Reality Check): Be cautious of "Sell the News." Once the demos are done, short-term traders often lock in profits. 3️⃣ Critical Levels to Watch Resistance (Ceiling): $4.00 (Psychological wall) $4.25 (Profit-taking zone). Support (Floor): $3.77 (Must hold) $3.55 (Trend reversal line). The Bottom Line: This isn't just a "CES Pump." With Defense production approved (Collins Aero) and Amazon rollout rumors swirling, the floor is higher than in previous years. But volatility cuts both ways have your stops ready. $VUZI #CES2026 #Stocks #Trading #AR #TechAnalysis
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$CIFR -MONDAY BATTLE PLAN: The Warrant "Lid" is Finally Off Friday’s 5PM warrant redemption deadline is HISTORY. The artificial sell pressure and arbitrage trading that pinned us down all week is gone. Monday starts a new structural environment. The Floor: We successfully defended the $14.80 "Double Bottom" hard deck on Friday. As long as $14.80 holds, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. The Setup: Watch for potential morning chop as final cashless shares settle, then look for the "relief rally." First target is a reclaim of $15.90. The Big Picture: The dilution fear is in the rearview. We are no longer just a miner; we are an AI Infrastructure play (AWS/Google deals) trading at a massive discount. The "Infrastructure Arbitrage" is real.
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$BULL- Analyst Brief: Who is Yorkville Advisors And Why the Fear Around $BULL's SEPA Is Misguided 1- Firm Background Yorkville Advisors Global LP is a New Jersey-based private investment firm specializing in structured equity facilities, notably Standby Equity Purchase Agreements (SEPA). These deals give public companies flexible, non-binding access to capital, typically used to support: Strategic expansions Product rollouts Debt restructuring Opportunistic growth Yorkville has executed hundreds of these across small- and mid-cap names since the early 2000s. 2- The SEC Case (2012) Yes, Yorkville was sued by the SEC in 2012 for allegedly overvaluing assets and misrepresenting risk. Important: A federal judge dismissed the core claims in 2018 ruling no material fraud was proven. The SEC dropped the remaining charges with prejudice meaning the case is legally closed. Since then, no regulatory actions have been filed against the firm. 3- Yorkville’s SEPA Track Record Yorkville has signed standby deals with both high-potential and struggling companies — including: Growth-stage (e.g. Plug Power early) Speculative / high-risk (Nikola, Lordstown, FFIE) Some of these companies collapsed  but not because of Yorkville: These firms burned cash, had weak fundamentals, or poor management Yorkville did not cause dilution unless the company chose to issue shares Yorkville provides the option to raise capital, not a mandatory dilution trigger. 4-How SEPAs Actually Work SEPA = "at the company’s discretion" Company controls: Timing Size Frequency Shares are sold only when the company requests, at a formula-based discount (e.g., 2.5% below VWAP) No shares are registered until a Form 424B3 or similar prospectus supplement is filed on EDGAR 5-Why $BULL’s Deal Is Structurally Safe Webull ($BULL) is: Profitable Growth-focused Recently cleared float (warrants redeemed) Sitting on cash  no urgent raise required This SEPA was likely signed as a strategic buffer, not a liquidity lifeline Webull has not filed to issue any shares yet -zero dilution has occurred 6- Final Take “Yorkville’s reputation isn’t pristine —but the structure of their deals is sound. And $BULL has full control over execution. The SEPA only becomes dilution if misused not by default.” #BULL #Webull #Yorkville #SEPA #EquityMarkets #FinTwit
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$BULL - As folks are getting to know about BULL. here are the earnings data
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$BULL - Short Squeeze Thesis Cleared $13.20 resistance → breakout confirmed 3rd highest volume day in history (20M+) = real accumulation. Day is still not done Float cleaned — all unexercised warrants voided on June 30 CTB >150% = shorts paying to hold in a rising stock ADX >30, +DI surging = active trend ignition If volume sustains above 25M and $14 holds… We’re staring at a squeeze zone toward $17–19+ #BULL #shortsqueeze #technicalbreakout #floattrap #fintech
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Tradelearner2022 retweeted
$BULL, clear green. High likelihood of reaching 18-20
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$SBET- 🧠 SBET: Why the 72% Crash Was an Overreaction and Why a Snapback Is in Play Here’s a concise breakdown of why we believe the recent 72% plunge in $SBET was a severe market overreaction, and why we could see a sharp reversion to the $24–28 range in the coming days — assuming a few key conditions hold. ⚠️ The Trigger: An S-3 Filing — Not an Offering On June 12, SBET filed an S-3ASR shelf registration to legally allow PIPE investors (who funded the $425M ETH treasury deal) to resell up to ~58.7M shares and ~16.6M warrants. This was a standard, procedural post-PIPE filing not an active offering or direct dilution. But many traders misread it as insiders dumping shares, triggering a wave of fear-based selling. In reality: No insiders or PIPE investors sold (confirmed by Joseph Lubin and ConsenSys) The filing was already expected from the original PIPE terms The panic was mostly driven by misunderstanding, thin liquidity, and algo triggers The Crash: 72% in One Day A Historical Outlier SBET dropped from ~$32.53 to $9.21 over 70% wiped out in hours. After-hours it briefly hit ~$8.11 before bouncing to ~$10.45–12.20. That kind of move does not align with historical comps: Other S-3 shelf registration cases (AMC, MVIS, SPACs) typically drop 8–15%, occasionally up to 30% if there's heavy follow-on selling. None dropped 70%+ on a filing alone. Most recovered 40–70% within 1–4 weeks once the market digested the news and no mass selling followed. This tells us: SBET’s crash was extreme, sentiment-driven, and likely overcorrected. Why a Snapback Is Plausible Let’s look at the math and narrative: SBET is now trading ~1.6× NAV of its ETH holdings, while MicroStrategy trades at ~1.9–2.5× its Bitcoin NAV. Some traders argue SBET should trade at 4–5× NAV, implying major upside. With ~$463M in ETH, a conservative NAV floor is ~$6.50 per share current prices imply only modest premiumto ETH alone. Post-crash volume has been massive, suggesting forced liquidations and algo flushes, not controlled investor exits. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits, Reddit, and X has turned bullish again, viewing the crash as a buyable error. Joseph Lubin publicly clarified: no shares were sold, and the filing is just legal structure no insider dump. After-hours action Friday showed buying strength, with a 30% bounce off the lows signaling absorption and dip demand. What we Expect Next If the market realizes this was a misread and no PIPE selling hits the tape early next week we expect: Reversion to a more rational 10–15% correction from $32, which puts SBET around $27–29. Fast money and quant desks may re-enter if SBET reclaims the $14–16 zone with volume. Retail traders are watching $12 and $15 as near-term breakout zones. Crypto tailwinds (ETH bounce) would amplify any upside. 🧷 Risks to Watch PIPE holders actually start selling now that shares are registered. SBET uses its $1B ATM program too aggressively and tanks sentiment. Ethereum dips and drags SBET down with it. Retail loses conviction if there's no price response by mid-week. 🏁 Final Thought This feels like a textbook overreaction. The sell-off priced in immediate dilution that hasn’t happened, against a backdrop of strong fundamentals (largest public ETH holder, strategic leadership, staked treasury, etc.). If we follow the pattern of similar setups and insiders continue to hold a 40–60% snapback from the low is entirely plausible. That puts $24–28 as a realistic short-term upside range.
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Tradelearner2022 retweeted
Ethereum is the opposite of capital controls Crypto will be the last open financial system remaining and therefore the largest
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$NEHC - 10 Key points from Investor presentation. newerahelium.com/_resources/… So is this $4.20 Stock.. with only 4 Mil float. Do we really understand the potential of this stock? 1- Strategic Location:Operates in the Permian Basin, Southeastern New Mexico, a region rich in helium reserves, with proximity to major U.S. helium liquefaction plants and interstate pipelines. 2-Helium Reserves:Holds 1.5 billion cubic feet (BCF) of gross proved and probable helium reserves, validated by independent engineering reports. 3- Production and Expansion:Actively producing helium and natural gas from 400+ wells, with plans to develop an additional 540 drilling locations on its 137,000-acre leasehold. 4-Helium Processing Plant:Construction of a helium processing plant (Pecos Slope Plant) is 30% complete, with an expected operational start in Q2 2025. The plant will process helium, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL). 5-Long-Term Offtake Agreements:Secured two 10-year “take-or-pay” contracts with Tier-1 and Tier-2 international buyers, expected to generate $113 million in revenue over the contract period. 6-Market Opportunity:Targets capturing at least 2% of the North American helium market, with plans to consolidate helium production across the region. 7-Vertical Integration:Aims to become a fully integrated helium producer, encompassing upstream exploration, midstream processing, and downstream marketing, enhancing operational efficiency and revenue potential. 8-Growing Demand for Helium:Helium demand is rising due to its critical applications in semiconductors, healthcare (MRI scanners), aerospace, and defense. The helium market is projected to grow 2-4% annually through 2025. 9-Strong Financial Backing:With $3.7 million funded for the plant, the company is positioned to scale production while benefiting from consistent revenue streams through secured contracts. 10-Attractive Investment Proposition:Positioned to leverage increasing global helium shortages, long-term revenue stability through contracts, and proximity to infrastructure, making it an attractive opportunity for traders focused on growth markets. ...
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$NEHC-In our previous posts, we covered many of NEHC's fundamentals. Please review them if you're interested. Now, let's switch to technical analysis, where a few points become clear: 1-After the NASDAQ bell ringing this week, there was an unfounded expectation that the stock would skyrocket to triple digits, similar to LPA's rise. When this didn't happen, people sold off their shares, and short-sellers capitalized on the downward momentum. 2-Consequently, the last two trading days saw significant selling pressure. However, the stock found support and finished at $4.21 on Friday. 3-The stock price might continue to decline as the market may not fully grasp the company's inherent value. 4-While many stocks experience artificial pumps and dumps, NEHC possesses genuine differentiation within the niche helium market. 5-If the market accurately assesses this company in the short term, the stock could climb to $7.87, nearly a 100% increase from its current price. 6-Should the price surpass $7.87, there's significant upside potential. However, remember that this is speculation. None of us can definitively predict market behavior in the coming days.
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$TANH-Key Points on Tantech Holdings Ltd (TANH): Overview Specializes in bamboo-based charcoal products and electric vehicles. Two segments: Consumer Products (charcoal briquettes, air purifiers, bamboo vinegar) and Electric Vehicles(buses, logistics cars, specialty vehicles). Expanding into biodegradable packaging and commercial factoring services. Founded in 1998, headquartered in Lishui, China. U.S. Expansion Established two U.S. subsidiaries (Gohomeway Inc and Gohomeway Group Inc) to focus on green building materials. Signed a $5 million annual contract with Heidi Enterprise Group for flooring products. Aims to build a distribution network and franchise system in the U.S. Financials Raised $2.1 million in private placement, issuing units with common shares and warrants. Strong cash reserves exceeding $3.00 per share. Insiders own 25% of the stock, with only 5 million shares in float. Market Potential Expansion into the U.S. could attract retail investors. Stock poised for short-term upside; potential gap fill to $0.50 or higher.
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$GEVO - $2.24 is where the resistance is.. We need volume to pierce through it and hold that level of $2.24 for further increase in price. We have volume though. We already had 10.3 mil volume. If you review the gap marked by circle (red candle ) it had downward volume of 17.9 Mil. If we can get more than that volume of 17.9 mil $2.24 resistance will be pierced and held and then $2.24 becomes new support. Let's see
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$XAIR - There has been lot of positive and negative discussions about this Stock. Fundamentals are not strong. Leadership is concerning. Dilution may happen. But if you purely apply technicals on a weekly chart few points emerge. Here is it: 1- All time low is $0.30 and based on the negative chatter on Friday it can still go down to $0.30 2- But it held the level at 0.38 after hours. 3- If all the negative chatter has been absorbed by the market and sellers are gone it can go up because there may be buyers who see value in this company may buy and If it happens price can start climbing back up and key levels of resistance will be $0.56, 0.68 and $1.14. But it requires buying volume. Let's see what happens on Monday
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Tradelearner2022 retweeted
🚀 Why $IREN is the play of the year! Let's dive in: 1️⃣ MicroStrategy $MSTR holds 215K BTC valued at $14.4B, which is currently worth $27.4B. That's a 90% premium. 2️⃣ Marathon $MARA holds 17,631 BTC worth $1.18B, market cap: $5.5B. Subtracting the BTC premium using MSTR's 90%, we get $3.14B for pure hash rate. Operating at 22 EH/s, each EH/s is worth ~$0.14B. 3️⃣ CleanSpark $CLSK holds 5,739 BTC worth $384M, market cap: $3.9B. Subtracting the BTC premium using MSTR's 90%, we get $3.13B for pure hash rate. Operating at 17 EH/s, each EH/s is worth ~$0.18B. 🚀 Iris Energy $IREN just hit 10 EH/s. Using MARA's numbers, IREN should be worth $1.4B, and using CLSK's numbers, $1.8B. If IREN hits 30 EH/s by year-end, it could be worth $4.2B (MARA) to $5.4B (CLSK)! I believe hash rate is the most important metric for Bitcoin miners. Then, it's Bitcoin hodl. Hashrate dictates how high miners can go, but hodl dictates how low miners can go. I've never seen such an asymmetric opportunity before! #Bitcoin #Crypto #MiningStocks #BTC
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$GCT- If you look at the daily chart today it retraced slightly with 0.07% with lower volume. If volume comes back tomorrow it can breach 16.86; Also getting tighter at 5MA. And if you look at weekly chart it already has higher volume than last week. So can buyers come in tomorrow which is the last day of the week and push it further? Dont know. But as always we are speculating
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Tradelearner2022 retweeted
$ASMB $0.70 Wow, this I didn't know... "Gilead $GILD has agreed to purchase additional shares to reach 29.9% of the outstanding voting stock of Assembly." So, let me get this straight, they fully fund development, buy 30% of the co. and then split profits 60/40 in lieu of royalties. That's a sweet deal for $ASMB. Not surprising then that an 11.5% holder with almost $6M invested just added to his position at $0.72. Seems Mr. Market is sleeping on this one. Tick, tock until they pay attention to what the insiders already seem to know...🧐
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