Bitcoin market intelligence. 3D & weekly structure, on-chain and ETF flows. Confirmation over prediction.
Joined October 2021
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SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
Bitcoin’s 3-Day Decline Paused. The Structure Hasn’t Repaired.
In our weekly read, we said a 3-day close below $82.5K — Bitcoin’s price at the end of each 3-day period — would weaken the short-term picture.
That happened.
The October 12 close came in at $81.8K, down about 1%.
But Bitcoin did not fall below the recent $80.3K low. That low is now confirmed as the new structural low on the 3-day chart.
The decline paused. The short-term structure has not repaired.
Recent pullback lows have moved from roughly $82.5K to $80.3K, while recent highs have also moved lower.
The bigger weekly picture remains constructive for now: the last weekly close stayed above the 50-week trend average near $78.4K.
What matters next
• 3-day close above $87.2K: the short-term structure becomes ascending again.
• 3-day close below $80.3K: the short-term decline resumes, and the weekly thesis comes under more direct pressure.
• Weekly close below the 50-week trend average near $78.4K: the broader constructive weekly read requires reassessment.
These are observation levels, not entries, stops, or price targets.
This is a short-term, days-level read.
Next 3-day close: October 15, 23:59 UTC.
Next weekly close: October 18, 23:59 UTC.
Confirmation over prediction.
xitter.cf/SentinelBTC214/status/…
ALT BTCUSD 3-day chart through October 12 showing the candle closing near $81.8K, below the prior structural low around $82.5K but above the newly confirmed 3-day structural low near $80.3K. Recent 3-day highs and lows have moved lower.
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
Bitcoin ETF Daily Flow - US$
Morgan Stanley ($MSBT): 2.4 million
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
Remember that Turkish F-16 that was reportedly shot down by a Greek Mirage 2000 in 1996? Well, here’s what it must have looked like from the Mirage’s cockpit 👀 The actual 1996 shootdown remains disputed, but the imagery is a pretty good reminder that the Mirage could yank and bank with the best of them.
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
O mundo não precisa de uma inteligência artificial que diminua a humanidade; pelo contrário, precisa de inteligência humana iluminada pela sabedoria, autoridade política guiada pela consciência e inovação tecnológica orientada pela caridade. Só então a inteligência artificial deixará de ser uma rival da humanidade e se tornará uma servidora do bem comum.
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
#BTC
Bitcoin is pressing beyond the 200-week SMA (orange) for the time being but is still rejecting from the black Lower High resistance
There's been no real change in market structure
$BTC #Bitcoin
#BTC
Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the ~$63k level (orange horizontal) which technically positions price for a bearish retest of this level
Of course, price is pressing beyond this level right now
But at the same time Bitcoin is finding resistance at the 200-week SMA (orange) as well as the newfound Lower High (black) where price upside wicked into
A Weekly Close below the orange horizontal later this week would likely confirm the bearish retest and a rejection from the 200-week SMA is how BTC would get there
$BTC #Bitcoin
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
📊 Bitcoin Aggregated Data — Free Section
Price: ~63.20K USD
📈 Price Action
#BTC is trading around 63,205 USD. After the deterioration from the 65K area, price tested approximately 62.5K–62.7K and has since entered a very tight consolidation around 63K–63.2K. The market has stopped falling for the moment, but there is still no meaningful recovery of the previous structure.
📉 Open Interest — leverage remains the central issue
Aggregated Open Interest is approximately 33.98B USD, with the current candle moving around 34.0B.
This confirms yesterday's observation: the retreat from the recent ~34.5B–35B extreme has been relatively modest.
The broader divergence remains:
BTC: ~65K → ~63.2K
OI: ~32B → ~34B
Price lost ground, but the derivatives market still carries substantially more open exposure than before the decline.
🟡 Coinbase Spot Volume
Current Coinbase spot volume is approximately 14.30M, higher than yesterday's ~3.27M reading. However, the latest price stabilization remains relatively narrow. There is some renewed spot participation, but not yet a decisive price expansion associated with it.
⚡ Liquidations
The latest reading shows approximately 2.68M USD of negative-side liquidations.
This is worth watching because liquidation activity has returned while price remains close to the lower part of the range. Yet even after repeated liquidation events during the decline, Open Interest remains near 34B.
In other words, leverage is being removed locally, but the aggregate positioning has still not undergone a major reset.
🚀 Hyperliquid Activity
Hyperliquid volume has increased sharply to approximately 73.49M, compared with ~15.7M in the previous snapshot.
So while price itself looks quiet around 63K, derivatives activity underneath the market has become considerably more active.
📌 Market Interpretation
Today's configuration is particularly interesting because the surface and the underlying positioning are telling different stories.
Price looks quiet. Leverage does not.
BTC is compressed around 63K, while aggregated OI remains around 34B and Hyperliquid activity has accelerated. This is occurring after several days in which BTC moved lower without producing a proportional reduction in open exposure.
The result is a market that appears calm in price but remains structurally loaded with leverage.
One important distinction remains: elevated OI does not tell us by itself whether longs or shorts dominate. Therefore, it would be incorrect to interpret 34B of OI as automatically bearish—or bullish.
But it does tell us something important about potential energy: if BTC breaks away from this compressed 63K structure and reaches a sufficiently concentrated liquidation zone, the amount of outstanding leverage could amplify the move.
So the next relevant signal is not another small fluctuation around 63K. It is whether this consolidation finally produces price expansion + liquidation acceleration + meaningful OI contraction.
That combination would indicate that the leverage reset we've been tracking is actually underway.
Trading Different — Liquidation Heatmap
⚠️ This analysis is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, either partially or entirely.
Because the market is compressed near 63K while leverage remains elevated, testing whether a breakout is confirmed by liquidation acceleration and meaningful OI contraction would distinguish genuine deleveraging from another temporary range move.
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
🚨 Bitcoin wird gerade zu einem Pulverfass.
Das Open Interest bei Bitcoin-Futures ist auf den höchsten Stand seit 3 Jahren gestiegen.
Und das ausgerechnet jetzt, wo sich BTC seit Tagen kaum bewegt.
Das ist eine ziemlich explosive Kombination.
Extrem viel Derivate-Exposure sitzt mittlerweile im Markt, während die Volatilität gleichzeitig massiv komprimiert ist. Immer mehr Positionen werden aufgebaut, aber die große Bewegung bleibt bislang aus.
Genau dadurch spannt sich die Feder immer weiter.
Wichtiger Hinweis: Ein Rekord beim Open Interest sagt uns nicht, ob Longs oder Shorts gewinnen werden. Für jeden Long gibt es einen Short.
Es sagt uns aber etwas anderes:
👉 Sobald Bitcoin aus dieser Range ausbricht, könnte die Bewegung durch Liquidationen massiv beschleunigt werden.
Und genau deshalb beobachte ich jetzt vor allem:
• Funding
• Futures- & Spot-CVD
• Liquidation Heatmaps
• Verhalten des OI beim nächsten Impuls
Niedrige Volatilität + extremes Open Interest = immer mehr Treibstoff für die nächste größere Bewegung.
Longs oder Shorts? Wen erwischt es eurer Meinung nach zuerst?
Die Ruhe bei Bitcoin dürfte schon sehr bald vorbei sein. ⚠️
Mittlerweile senden gleich drei verschiedene Indikatoren dasselbe Signal:
• Der Choppiness Index ist auf den höchsten Stand seit mehreren Jahren gestiegen.
• Gleichzeitig sind die Bollinger Bands auf nur noch ~4 % zusammengedrückt - eine der stärksten Volatilitätskompressionen der vergangenen zwei Jahre.
• Und jetzt zeigt auch Fidelity: Die realisierte 30-Tage-Volatilität von Bitcoin bewegt sich nahe ihrer Mehrjahrestiefs.
Drei unterschiedliche Metriken. Dasselbe Bild:
Bitcoin steckt in einer extrem engen Konsolidierung. Die Volatilität verschwindet zunehmend aus dem Markt und die Spannung baut sich immer weiter auf.
Solche Phasen halten nicht ewig.
👉 Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass wir schon sehr bald wieder eine größere, impulsive Bewegung bei BTC sehen, steigt deutlich.
Die Richtung ist noch offen. Die Bewegung dürfte kommen.
Jetzt heißt es: aufmerksam bleiben. 👀
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
Bitcoin is approaching one of the most important Long Term Holder MVRV zones.
The Long Term Holder MVRV is currently around 1.28, moving significantly closer to the historical stress zone for long term investors.
This metric compares the market value of Bitcoin held by Long Term Holders with the average cost basis of those coins.
When LTH MVRV falls below 1, Long Term Holders are, on average, holding Bitcoin at an unrealized loss.
Historically, these conditions appeared around some of Bitcoin’s most important accumulation periods:
🔵 2012
🔵 2015
🔵 2018 and 2019
🔵 2022
Today, the metric stands at 1.28.
This does not yet represent the extreme capitulation observed near previous major cycle bottoms.
However, Bitcoin is moving closer to a region where historical risk and reward dynamics became increasingly asymmetric.
A deeper price correction could push LTH MVRV closer to, or even below, 1 again.
If that happens, the market would enter a zone historically associated much more with long term accumulation than distribution.
Short term volatility can remain high.
But from an on chain perspective, the Long Term Holder MVRV is becoming one of the most important Bitcoin metrics to watch over the coming months.
LTH MVRV: 1.28
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
The support under bitcoin:native has started to disappear.
The heavy wall of buy orders that built below price in June has begun to drain away.
What remains is a much thinner floor.
In our weekly updates we've been monitoring this metric closely 👇
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
$BTC closed below the 200W SMA. Does that automatically mean the level has become resistance?
No.
A close below a moving average tells us where price finished. Resistance describes how price behaves when it interacts with that level afterward.
Rejection from below, a failed reclaim or persistent closes beneath it would add evidence.
One close can invalidate a condition without defining the level’s new role.
Location ≠ behavior. Confirmation matters.
ALT Infographic explaining why a Bitcoin close below a moving average does not by itself confirm resistance. The left side shows price closing below a moving average. The right side shows three behaviors that would add evidence of resistance: rejection from below, a failed reclaim, and persistent closes below the level. Key message: location is not behavior; confirmation requires additional evidence.
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
#BTC
Bitcoin is slipping from the ~$63k level (orange) after having produced lesser and lesser rallies from here in recent weeks
A Weekly Close below the orange level would probably set price up for a breakdown
$BTC #Bitcoin
#BTC
Bitcoin would enjoy aggressive buy-back at the 200-week SMA in July but that aggression is no longer evident this month
Which ties in with what I mentioned 1.5 months ago:
"The SMA could act as support in the short-term to enable limited upside relief this July before failing as support mid-term"
Bitcoin indeed enjoyed support in the short-term from 200-week SMA in July but it appears that support is faltering this August
$BTC #Bitcoin
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
$BTC closed the 3D candle at $63,442, slipping back below the 200W SMA ($63,791).
Price also remains below the 21/50/200 3D EMAs. RSI fell to 43.4, while the MACD histogram contracted for a second consecutive close.
That is a meaningful deterioration in the 3D structure — but it is not the same as confirmation of a new bearish trend.
Losing a level weakens structure. What happens after the loss determines whether the market confirms it.
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
We have some difficult news to share. Unfortunately, one of our shipping providers has experienced a data breach that exposed sensitive order data. This affects new customers in the US, UK, Sweden, Colombia, Brazil, Italy, and Portugal who received an order within the 90 days prior to August 8th, 2026.
The data exposed:
- Full names
- Shipping addresses
- Phone numbers
- Email addresses
The incident affects 11,742 customers with full exposure (name, email, phone number, shipping address) and 1,947 customers with partial exposure (name, city, email). The breach is limited due to Trezor’s strict 90-day data storage policy (we were also able to negotiate the same terms with fulfillment partners, who follow the same policy).
All affected customers have been contacted separately by email.
Our systems and devices remain secure, but affected customers could experience an increase in phishing attempts.
NEVER enter your wallet backup on a website or share it with anyone, and only check for updates on official Trezor channels.
We are deeply sorry to the community and those affected.
We are investigating this situation and will post updates on our blog:
trezor.io/blog/news/recent-c…
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
Bitcoin has been chopping around $64k for more than two months, with volatility compressing to extreme lows.
The 30-day price range is now just 5.6%, one of the narrowest on record. Historically, periods of such low volatility tend to occur in very late-stage bear markets, and more often in early bull markets.
In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines this volatility squeeze, how it compares with similar periods in Bitcoin’s history, and the onchain supply structure developing around the 200-week moving average → newsletter.checkonchain.com/…
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
The first cracks have widened.
Bitcoin’s Risk Index has moved from Low Risk, through Destabilization, and into the Distribution Regime.
Selling pressure is no longer being fully absorbed.
This is where warning becomes structural damage.
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
Muita gente está colocando em cheque as carteiras de hardware como OneKey e Trezor por exemplo, por conta do incidente da Coldcard.
Muita gente colocando em cheque o Bitcoin por conta do episódio da Coldcard.
Mas vamos fazer uma conta de padaria:
20.065.000 Bitcoins existentes
1.876 Bitcoins roubados (até agora)
(1.876,83359078÷20.065.105)×100≈0,00935477%
0,009% do supply estava em risco.
Não porque hardware wallets são um risco ou o Bitcoin é inseguro.
A COLDCARD É INSEGURA!
E baseou sua carteira e a segurança dos seus clientes na data e hora do pc de cada um.
Fiquem tranquilos, a indústria Bitcoiner vai sobrevier, O Bitcoin vai sobreviver...
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
1/5 SENTINEL Semanal | 27/07/2026
BTC: estrutura semanal baixista; melhora no 3D e 1D. Mudança: reação tática sem reversão. Risco: abaixo das médias semanais; SMA200W em US$63.341 sustenta a estrutura. Condição: recuperar US$68.036–70.433. Revisão 3D: 30/07.
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
#Bitcoin – What's Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
This is a small Sunday report and should give you more understanding of my point of view rather than an actual BTC analysis, it tells you why I am buying. Everyone Wants to Time the Exact Bottom. Many are talking about the strength in July and they mention it due to the midterms, and many, or let's say most, are arguing that in August and September the market will see a stronger correction to new lows. Some are speaking about 44k, others about 48k, and every single one of them wants to time the exact bottom. This is exactly the mistake I keep warning about. While they debate numbers, I consider the range of 64-54k as a great entry region for DCA. It is a range of 15%, and that is great. I will keep repeating it as many times as needed: I am actively accumulating Bitcoin, and my purchases are shared in real time in Premium. Every single purchase, every single DCA I do, is shared in real time in Premium, and for that reason I am not able to disclose my exact entries publicly. But the accumulation has started, and I am looking forward to accumulating more of BTC, ETH, and some altcoins that will be shared in Premium only. Join Premium here: drprofitcrypto.com/
Look at the chart. The Buy Region between 54k and 64k is exactly where Bitcoin has been trading, and the MA200 weekly is running straight through the lower part of this zone. Bitcoin tested this region several times, and my argument is simple, and history can proof my point: Buying at , or close at the MA200 Weekly always proved to be profitable! This is the confluence I have been describing since the pivot announcement! So let me repeat, I am not buying daily, I am not buying at the current price, I am buying between 64-54k and each time I do so, the purchase is announced in real time in premium, and my goal is to have a solid average price of the next 1-2 months! This is a mid term accumulation game and we will see the results in 1-2 months!
I will be very straight with you:
Nobody can tell you where the exact Bitcoin bottom will be. Just as I did not claim to know the exact top, I identified the region where the top had to form. I started selling my assets and building my short position through DCA between 115,000 and 125,000. That was a range of roughly 9%. I did not need to catch the exact top, and while building shorts between 115-125k I had an average short entry of 119k! I needed to position myself inside the correct region, and that is exactly what I did. Now I am applying the same strategy in reverse. My accumulation range is between 64,000 and 54,000!
And let me make one thing clear: if Bitcoin bottoms around 54,000 and my long-term average ends up around 58,000, That is a phenomenal entry. People who constantly wait for the exact bottom usually end up buying much higher, or not buying at all. I am not here to gamble on one perfect number. I am here to dominate the range, build a powerful average entry, and position myself before the majority realizes the bottom is already behind us. Everyone who is ignoring this will lose.
Calendar This Week
FOMC meeting on Wednesday! Market prices a 65% chance of no change and a 35% chance of a rate HIKE. Think about that: the year started with everyone expecting cuts, now a third of the market bets on a hike, and September hike odds are above 80%. So the market is now really cautious and starts to price in at least 1 - 2 hikes! This is the reason why the Stock Market is currently slow, and Wedneday will give great insights on what the FED really thinks
Join Premium here: drprofitcrypto.com/
THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.
SENTINEL | Market Intelligence retweeted
$ETH: For the first time ever, I'm making Ethereum a serious part of my portfolio. In previous cycles, only around 10% of my BTC allocation went into ETH. Now I'm raising that to 20%! For every $4 USD that I invest into Bitcoin, $1 goes into ETH