@_Checkmatey_
Account based inAustralia
About this account
- Account based in
- Australia
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- Australia Android App
Account-level information from X, not a live location or the device used for a specific post.
Helping navigate #Bitcoin's volatility Newsletter https://nitter.cf/t.co/omfQHUqMjb Onchain Analyst @_checkonchain Charting Suite https://nitter.cf/t.co/5DH6Z9lWT1
UTXO
Joined January 2018
- Tweets51.6K
- Following1.5K
- Followers134K
- Likes76.6K
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Personal Update:
I am very proud to announce I'm launching the @_checkonchain Newsletter on Substack!
After 6 years studying and educating folks on the power of #Bitcoin onchain data, it's time to put my skills to the test.
Our first edition is live!
checkonchain.substack.com/
🧵
My old man used to run his own computer repair business.
Tiberian Sun somehow made it's way onto one of his master disk ghost images.
Everytime he rebuilt someones computer, I knew just where to find it.
Diablo II is just a chefs kiss game, there is a reason it is on everyone's list.
The nostalgia of DII is unreal, and they actually did a tremendous job with the remake.
Pretty sure I was given Diablo II and the expansion as a burned disk from a family friend.
I sat down with my long time friend Mark (who bought the top alongside me back in 2017) to discuss the current state of the Bitcoin market.
We covered the 2026 bear market, why I think we're on the other side of it, and how I ground my views in onchain data.
youtube.com/watch?v=DMAIPK4M…
I was very honoured to have @_Checkmatey_ on to discuss the weekly close above the 50 MA and the previous bear market and what that means for everything going forward . 🙏
youtu.be/DMAIPK4M9QU?is=ifQ4…
who's using brk/bitview in prod for a for or soon to be for profit product ?
@_checkonchain
@newhedge_io
@qfilabs
@TheBitcoinLayer (not sure?)
@PapangLabs
@atreidis_app
anyone else ?
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ retweeted
For the first time since Bitcoin’s October 2025 ATH, we’re seeing multi-billion-dollar weekly ETF inflows again.
Around $2.1B flowed into the ETFs last week, signalling that this pool of investors has started taking notice of Bitcoin once again.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the return of ETF demand and what the onchain, futures and ETF data tells us about the current Bitcoin market.
Get it here -> newsletter.checkonchain.com/…
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ retweeted
I'm going to share something new I just learned about Bitcoin returns... I STRONGLY encourage you to follow @_Checkmatey_
From his last newsletter:
"... around 3% of all trading days account for 100% of the bull cycle return!
In other words, for a classic 3-year long bull market, just 33-days account for the full return profile. All the other days of slightly positive moves are offset by all the negative days, including the nastiest sell-off events.
If you’re not invested for those 3% of days, you do not enjoy the fruits of the maximum bull market returns."
This brings home what I've been saying. Buy. HODL. Done.
Don't trade.
Don't try to time.
Smash buy if you can stomach it.
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ retweeted
Even in a Bitcoin bull market, the odds of an up or down day are roughly 50:50.
The difference is that a very small number of outsized positive days drive almost all of the cycle’s returns. Only ~3% of trading days account for 100% of the bull market gains.
In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ breaks down what the statistics tell us about how Bitcoin bull markets actually trade.
Get the Article here -> newsletter.checkonchain.com/…
API series explorer: explorer.bitview.space
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ retweeted
Pour la 1ere fois, le $BTC sort d'un bear market sans avoir plongé sous le prix réalisé
Portés par des chercheurs chevronnés tels que @_Checkmatey_, @dpuellARK ou @_nym21_, d'autres heuristiques permetttent de mieux décrire la réalité du marché
Article à venir sur le sujet ✍️
_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ retweeted
Je partage beaucoup moins de métriques qu’avant.
Dans les phases de rush ou quand je suis moins disponible, je me focalise sur les 3 sources auxquelles j’accorde une confiance presque aveugle :
📌 La Boussole qu'on a mis en place avec @profchaine
📌 James Check @_Checkmatey_ qui est pour moi le meilleur de son domaine
📌 Mon expérience et mon ressenti
Je suis un investisseur fainéant, mon objectif n’est pas de passer ma journée à regarder des charts.
C’est de savoir quoi regarder, quand ça compte, et pouvoir ensuite laisser le marché faire son chemin.
C’est aussi ça pour moi l’intérêt de l’analyse on-chain.
I've seen folks adjusting goalposts, claiming the 4yr cycle still works because 3 months over 4yrs is a small delta.
Missing prior tops by a quarter missed a median of 80% of the cycle upside.
Missing prior lows by a quarter missed a median of +50% moves off the low.
Let it go
When bitcoin breaks $87,500, it will be green year to date. That’s the price it was on January 1, 2026.
RIP “cycle theory”