Finding bangers in SPACland.

Joined January 2021
$CCXI Agility board member Matt Ocko said they have almost no China supply chain exposure already and expect to be zero by EOY. Customers will trust and want to use Agility’s Robots because made in USA. The @agilityrobotics team is very engrained into shaping right politics.
*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaoneJul 28
TRUMP TO BAN CHINESE ROBOTS, POWER INVERTERS The Trump administration is set to ban imports of new Chinese humanoid robots, quadruped robots, and connected power inverters. The move aims to protect the U.S. AI supply chain from cybersecurity and national security risks while encouraging manufacturers to shift production to the U.S. amid growing demand for AI infrastructure.
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$CCXI options start trading tomorrow
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Welcoming @BoostRunGPUs [BRUN] to the @Nasdaq Opening Bell. xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1OxwbbLLk…
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SPACzilla retweeted
Since today is $BRUN / @BoostRunGPUs first official trading day on the NASDAQ stock exchange, it's important we understand the shares outstanding and float mechanics. I've put this together in FAQ format so it's easier to digest, with light explanations of the SPAC mechanics where needed. Q: What's the actual tradeable float in the first 30 days of trading? Just 12.65M shares. Zero redemptions at the April 28 deadline means all 12.65M public WLAC shareholders convert into BRUN. Insiders (Sponsor + Boost Run sellers) hold another 48.78M shares but they're locked up for 6 months. Total shares outstanding at close: 61.43M. Tradeable float Day 1: 12.65M. So even though the company has 61M shares in existence, only 12.65M are actually available to trade hands on the open market. Q: How many founder shares does the Sponsor hold and how long are they locked up? The Sponsor holds 4,628,674 founder shares. These are locked up for 6 months after closing. BUT 10% of these shares (~462,867) get released early if BRUN closes ≥ $12.00 for any 20 trading days within a 30-day period commencing AFTER closing. The Boost Run sellers' 44.15M shares have the same structure: 6 months locked, with 10% (~4.42M shares) released early on the same $12 condition. Total founder shares = 4.6M + 44.2M = 48.8M Important detail: the clock for the 20/30-day observation window only starts when BRUN begins trading. The WLAC price action before close doesn't count. At ~$20 today, the $12 condition will clear easily, but expect the 10% releases ~30-45 trading days post-close, not immediately. Q: How many earnout shares can Andrew Karos (CEO) and the Sponsor + SPV receive? Up to 7,875,000 shares across three tiers: Tier I: 2,625,000 shares if VWAP ≥ $12.50 for 20 of 30 trading days Tier II: 2,625,000 shares if VWAP ≥ $15.00 for 20 of 30 trading days Tier III: 2,625,000 shares if VWAP ≥ $17.50 for 20 of 30 trading days VWAP = volume-weighted average price, aka the average price weighted by how much volume traded at each level on a given day. The Sponsor + SPV (a separate vehicle that bought some of the Sponsor's stake) get a separate earnout block of 3,093,750 shares on the same tiered structure. Total contingent share issuance: 10,968,750 new shares. At $20, all three tiers are mechanically in striking distance. If price holds, expect all three to trigger within the first 60-90 trading days post-close. Q: What's the dilutive effect of the public warrants? There are 6,325,000 public warrants outstanding (ticker BRUNW). Each warrant lets the holder buy 1 BRUN share at $11.50. Two ways this plays out: 1. Cash exercise: Warrant holder pays $11.50 in cash, company receives $11.50 in cash, company issues 1 new share to the holder. If all 6.325M public warrants cash-exercise, the company pockets ~$73M in cash and issues 6.325M new shares. 2. Forced cashless exercise (the more likely path): When BRUN closes ≥ $18.00 for 20 of any 30 trading days (after a 30-day waiting period from closing), the company can issue a redemption notice at $0.01/warrant. Holders are then forced to either exercise their warrants or effectively lose the value. Under cashless mechanics at $20: Shares per warrant = ($20 − $11.50) / $20 = 0.425 6.325M warrants × 0.425 = ~2.69M new shares issued Company receives zero cash but issues ~60% fewer shares than the cash exercise path. At $20, the $18 condition is already cleared mechanically. The company will likely call redemption once the 30-day post-close waiting period passes and the 20/30 observation window completes. One critical detail: the Sponsor's 5,145,722 private warrants are NOT subject to the $18 forced redemption. They sit as long-dated optionality and could be exercised anytime over the next 5 years, a permanent overhang that won't trigger through mechanical conditions. Q: What will shares outstanding look like after the 6-month lockup expires? Roughly 75M shares, up from 61.43M at close. Build-up of the share count growth: 61.43M: basic shares at close +3.66M - Tier I earnout (Andrew + Sponsor + SPV) +3.66M - Tier II earnout (Andrew + Sponsor + SPV) +3.66M - Tier III earnout (Andrew + Sponsor + SPV) +2.69M to 6.325M - Public warrant exercise = ~75.1M to 78.7M shares outstanding At the 6-month lockup expiration (mid-November 2026), 43.9M previously locked insider shares unlock simultaneously. The tradeable float jumps from ~31M to ~75M (or 79M) essentially overnight. Even modest insider sell-through (say 10%) = 4.4M shares of supply hitting a then-float of ~31M = ~14% of float for sale. The bottom line on float: For the first 6 months of BRUN trading, only ~17% to ~41% of total shares outstanding will actually be tradeable. The low end (~17%) reflects the initial 12.65M float against 75M ultimate share count. The high end (~41%) reflects the float after the 10% early releases, earnout issuances, and warrant exercises trigger, but before the main 6-month lockup expires. This small float relative to total shares outstanding will likely introduce volatility in both directions over the next 6 months. Small float + AI infrastructure narrative + mechanical supply events stacking = expect sharp moves on relatively modest news. But understanding the share structure helps you contextualize the price action you'll see in the coming months. This can all be found in the S4 btw, hope it helps! cc: @stepnotonpets @SPAC_zilla @StableBread
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SPACzilla retweeted
The biggest winners in the market in 2025 were the memory stocks. The big money in the hyperscalers and the DC plays has already been made in 2026 the money will be made again by those who are controlling or solving the bottlenecks in the AI buildout This is a great video to understand the field of play. youtu.be/KTyNig7enkQ?si=UHoH…
a new set of 3 for 3 dropping over your holiday cheers!
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Quick reminder, $RGTI is 8b market cap and literally does nothing with quantum. $CCCX Infleqtion products being adopted by 100 billion dollar aerospace and defense companies and is valued under 3 billion. Do what you want with this information.
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Almost $1 swings on a SPAC with low volume almost always tells the story of a tight float $WLAC Algos are off PM and AH and we are able to see the full picture
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SPACzilla retweeted
$HOND closed. The new ticker will be $IMSR tomorrow.
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another one added on the dip.... $CCCX
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Replying to @SPAC_zilla
Fun fact... at $100, $HOND would still trade at a lower market cap than $OKLO and $SMR
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$HOND $IMSR This standalone Safety Evaluation will not get the reactor built. But, it is a significant win for the Terrestrial team that will be used to help streamline future licensing efforts
Congrats to @TerrestrialMSR on receiving the final Safety Evaluation on their Principle Design Criteria topical report 🥳 The original topical report was submitted back in Jan 2023!!!
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$CCCM will actually get interesting closer to NAV. Some of the best price action comes from the worst deals. Chamath IPOC was HORRIBLE. Everyone hated $CLOV but squeezed to … $17 I think. #BTC is a cult, so you never know…
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This week, we speak with Marc Nemati, CEO of @grabagun and Omeed Malik, CEO and Chairman of Colombier Acquisition Corp. II $CLBR. The two announced a $197M combination in January of this year that is now nearing close. Marc explains why GrabAGun’s platform and the inroads it has already made with Gen Z consumers would be difficult to replicate. And, why a public listing presents a unique opportunity in the traditionally fragmented and illiquid space. Omeed lays out how the market has already reacted to the transaction as well as others that share a similar investment thesis, and how Colombier II has built its strategy around the enthusiasm the parties are already seeing. Give it a listen. spacinsider.com/news/intel/i…
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Launching today or this weekend. List is short now but seems like it will grow. Will keep this a free feature
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SPACzilla retweeted
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RT @stepnotonpets: $FLD The incentive for insiders to push this over 20 is too good to ignore. Seen this before on $OKLO from the same gro…
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I'm not sure if $DOMH will be the $DXYZ of Anduril, but it's the only company I've found with an ownership position. Anduril is really hot and will probably have many favorable headlines this year, including possibility to IPO - and I believe this is the only way for regular folks to trade it. Plenty of other interesting holdings as well. I also don't mind that they added the EVP of the Trump organization to the board last month. Trump connections have been good for other trades. As far as speculative trades go, I like the $DOMH r/r. DXYZ has shown that the inherent value may not matter too much when people need a way to express a trade, and I've sure bought worse stuff for worse reasons than this.
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SPACzilla retweeted
Public M&A coverage is now live on ListingTrack.io. + Activism, Shorts tracking (under More Situations section)! Next up is SPAC Warrants screener... You can already screen by warrant details in the SPAC Screener, but want to make a dedicated page for SPAC / De-SPAC warrants. What are some features you would want to see in that tool?
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Some fun predictions for 2025 and a single stock wishlist: Predictions 1. Law of large numbers takes hold and $MSTR largely converges to its NAV 2. S&P 500 has a mediocre year (and looks ugly at some point mid year) and small cap value finally outperforms the S&P 3. Ackman somehow gets a US permanent capital vehicle 4. IPO window re-opens and we get SpaceX or Starlink transaction (maybe thru the Pershing SPARs) 5. OpenAI proves to be the "Altavista" of AI and is overtaken by a better option 6. Trump tax cuts get extended, with only a modest improvement vs. the current rate of 21% (maybe 18-20%). Single names 7. $CBBI either converges to fair value or finally gets acquired by $OPBK, $HOPE, $PCB or $HAFC 8. $FPH finds financing partners for SF and Valencia, with some big cash coming in 9. $JACK normalizes to a mid-teens P/E multiple 10. $HHH gets acquired for a big premium 11. $BWEL monetizes its excess inventories and buys back more meaningful stock 12. One (or more) of my unnamed super illiquid OTC/expert names gets acquired
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