Actuary. Gambler. Canadian. Small data. Correlated parlays. Inventor of probit vig removal. Husband. Father. Parrot parent. Speaker at Bet Bash '22 '24 '26.

Toronto, Ontario
Joined January 2013
Plus EV Analytics retweeted
If it was a gambling product regulated by the AGCO, the standards prohibit ads that "Link gaming to seduction, sexual success or enhanced attractiveness." This ad wouldn't fly. People fail to realize their arguments against gambling are often the best arguments for regulation.
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Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlinOct 2
ok so instead of the house picking you off, it's susquehanna, i feel much better now
Sports betting is correct but for you all that look at LeBron or any other person that are involved in prediction markets are totally misinformed on the subject. calling prediction markets sports gambling is like calling the stock market a casino. you don't have to like it, but it's a regulated exchange where people trade with each other, not a house that profits when you lose. Know the difference
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Kyle Kuzma is an investor in Kalshi. frontofficesports.com/article/kalshi…
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This month I'll be in New York with Gillian Flynn and Las Vegas with @RWM21. Come say hi 👋
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AI is a big W for 40-somethings. Old enough to have learned how to do things the right way, young enough to learn some new tricks.
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Replying to @kalshi_business
???
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Don't count points of vig. Calculate the hold percentage.
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Replying to @AlexGodofsky
Observing the cell collapses the wave function though
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Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlinSep 18
apparently you'll be able to satisfy medicaid work requirements in a lot of states with *gross* gambling winings of $580 every six months, meaning you could take offsetting bets, pay the vig, and be employed aei.org/commentary/the-medic…
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Replying to @sharpedgelv
Honestly @sharpedgelv I hear you out u make a lot of good points ✅ Ignore the hate and keep grinding
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Effective Altruism is the natural enemy of the left and right because the right doesn't believe in altruism and the left doesn't believe in effectiveness.
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SCOOP: FanDuel and other sports betting operators are market making on Kalshi. In its Q1 earnings report, FanDuel-parent Flutter announced that it was market making "on a major, third-party prediction market platform.” That platform is Kalshi, according to a person familiar with the matter. Many other sports betting operators are trading on Kalshi, too, according to a Kalshi spokesperson. “FanDuel competes with thousands of other users in a fair environment on an open platform,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “If a regular user wants to offer a better price, or market make on the same terms, they can. There’s no special deal just for FanDuel. We have hundreds of market makers on combos, including individuals.” FanDuel’s trading on Kalshi is concentrated in combo trades, where multiple individual yes-or-no predictions are linked together for a massive payout if each prediction proves correct. When a trader builds a combo, power-users and institutional players on Kalshi’s platform—known as market makers—offer competing bids to take the other side of the combo bets. From FanDuel’s perspective, market making for combo trades on Kalshi is not so different from setting parlay odds on its sportsbook. “It’s a way of us making money from our pricing expertise,” Flutter CEO Peter Jackson previously told me in an interview. “That’s ultimately what we do in our core business.” That market-making opportunity is growing quickly. Kalshi saw $21.4 billion in combo trading volume over the past 30 days, according to @AldrinResearch, accounting for 49% of all trading volume on its platform. @FanDuel and other operators’ presence on @Kalshi underscores the similarities between sports betting on prediction markets and sportsbooks. No matter how they wager on Sunday football, retail traders and casual bettors are up against professional oddsmakers.
NEW: When you make a parlay bet on a prediction market, FanDuel might be your counterparty. Flutter, the parent-company of FanDuel, announced in its Q1 earnings report today that "in April, we began trialing market-making services on a major, third-party prediction market platform.” FanDuel has its own prediction market platform, FanDuel Predicts, which $FLUT CEO Peter Jackson tells me is mainly for onboarding new bettors in states yet to legalize traditional sports betting. “I want to do both,” Jackson says. “I want to make money through market-making and I want to acquire customers.” The prediction market market-making Flutter is doing is mainly in prediction market parlay or "combo" bets, Jackson says. Prediction markets say they differ from sports betting operators because they aren't the house. But now they may be pitting you against the house of Flutter.
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This the POV from a front-row end zone seat at the NFL's game at Melbourne Cricket Ground
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Replying to @tejfbanalytics
Analysts like you are the real MVPs
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Two scientists walk into a bar. "I'll have H20," says the 1st. "I'll have H20, too," says the 2nd. Bartender gives them water because he's able to distinguish the boundary tones that dictate the grammatical function of homonyms in coda position and pragmatic context.
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Just received a media advisory that @DraftKings will provide free gas for passenger vehicles between 10-2 today at Danforth Gas & Wash in Scarborough (while supplies last).
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lets give the wheel a spin!
NEW: @DKCasino is launching “Spin Your Way,” a new DraftKings Casino campaign bringing personalized play to life through bold creative directed by award-winning filmmaker Joseph Kahn. The campaign was developed in collaboration with creative agency The Tenth Man and highlights the variety and flexibility of the DraftKings Casino experience. 🎥 Watch the new spot: More: draftkings.com/draftkings-ca…
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Riley, Will and I have taken several trips to the casino for “research.” Can’t wait to take more. 📕—>📺 deadline.com/2026/08/riley-k…
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They’re back! Caesars is running the same no-point-spread Pro Pick’em Contest with the same sketchy “$1,210,000 in cash prizes” advertised. A couple of changes were made from the previous five years.
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Derek Stevens, tell us what you really think. @CircaLasVegas owner slams prediction markets. “They’re pirates. They’re thieves,” he told @CDCNewswire Says prediction markets are enjoying a parasitic relationship with the sports betting industry. cdcgaming.com/circas-stevens…
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