@PlusEVAnalytics

Actuary. Gambler. Canadian. Small data specialist. King of korrelated parlays. Husband. Father. Bad golfer. Parrot parent. Speaker at Bet Bash '22 '24 '26.

Toronto, Ontario
Joined January 2013
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled is convincing people that sports betting is a contest of who knows the most about sports
36
104
27
734
319,612
"Unsportsmanlike conduct" hold up, he just stepped out of bounds and back in, no need to impugn the man's character
6
2,331
Replies were full of big fancy words so I just asked Claude, he took care of it. Kinda retro-romantic that the way they communicate with each other is by dropping messages into a box and waiting for a reply into the same box
Is there a way to make Codex and Claude argue with each other until they reach a consensus, instead of me shuttling screen shots back and forth?
4
13
8,450
Eric Saubert TD!
2
1,887
Plus EV Analytics retweeted
AI is a big W for 40-somethings. Old enough to have learned how to do things the right way, young enough to learn some new tricks.
366
655
240
11,054
816,015
Is there a way to make Codex and Claude argue with each other until they reach a consensus, instead of me shuttling screen shots back and forth?
13
1
52
20,140
Counting down like it's New Year's Eve
1
20
5,246
Playing both sides so I always come out on top
1
4
1,669
Plus EV Analytics retweeted
Replying to @kalshi_business
???
5
2
63
8,314
The casino lobby and PMs keep one-upping each other on who can be more shameless
Wrote about a new study commissioned by @AmericanGaming . -Gamblers demonstrate higher financial literacy than non-gamblers. -Sports bettors demonstrate more mathematical ability than other types of gamblers and non-gamblers -Prediction market users have more confidence in their math ability than they actually demonstrate closingline.substack.com/p/e…
1
7
5,300
According to Coca-Cola, Coke drinkers are smart, successful and good looking while Pepsi drinkers are stupid and ugly
2
10
1,143
This kinda makes me want to get into survivor. I wonder if anyone has an entry I could buy.
Lighten up dude. It's a Circa Survivor model, not life or death.
2
17
8,960
Plus EV Analytics retweeted
Don't count points of vig. Calculate the hold percentage.
4
2
55
16,306
Plus EV Analytics retweeted
Replying to @AlexGodofsky
Observing the cell collapses the wave function though
5
41
2
2,597
114,785
It's a good old fashioned suck-off
3
1
14
3,510
YOU try typing Penix repeatedly into an autocorrect-happy iPhone
1
1
21
2,921
But when actual winning bettors try this they call it "bot betting" and "syndicate betting" smh
First, we made it possible to see who actually wins. Now we've made it possible to automatically tail them. Introducing Auto-Tail on Juice Reel 🚨 1. Select a capper with a verified track record to ride with, 2. Set your risk parameters 3. Connect the account you want the picks placed on You control your risk per pick, bankroll, and acceptable odds. When they make a pick, you place the pick. Automatically. Auto-Tail is live now.
1
1
41
17,310
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss
1
6
2,608
"We're a poker first business", what a load of crap. Nobody's forcing you to take sports bets but if you take them you take them.
I've been following the discussion around ACR's sportsbook and withdrawals, and I want to clear up several things directly. First, ACR does not have a liquidity problem. We have a long history of paying our players, and nothing about this situation changes that. ACR is, first and foremost, a poker company. Sportsbook, Casino and our other products are secondary services we offer to our poker customers. For a long time, ACR has required players to generate poker rake equal to 10% of their deposits before withdrawing. That requirement exists in part because we're a poker-first business, and it also helps prevent our platform from being used simply as a vehicle for moving money in and immediately back out. After experiencing significant coordinated professional sportsbook activity, including organized betting syndicates using ACR primarily as a standalone sportsbook, we extended that requirement across our auxiliary products. I also need to acknowledge where we got this wrong in the case currently being discussed. Some of our Customer Service representatives misunderstood how the requirement should be calculated and gave the player an incorrect figure based on his sportsbook winnings. That was wrong. The requirement is based on 10% of the player's deposits — not 10% of his winnings. I apologize to the player for the incorrect information and the confusion our communication caused. That's on us, and we're addressing it internally so our teams communicate this policy clearly and consistently going forward. What has never been communicated to this player is that ACR will not pay him. We will. The same published requirement applies here: the player must generate poker rake equal to 10% of the applicable deposit amount. Once that requirement and our normal account requirements are satisfied, his withdrawal can be processed. We understand that some people may disagree with that policy. That's fair. But disagreement with a withdrawal requirement is very different from ACR being unable or unwilling to pay its players. We're also reviewing the wording across our Terms & Conditions, help materials and Customer Service procedures so that there is no ambiguity about what is required, how it is calculated or when it applies. We should have communicated this particular case better from the beginning, and I apologize for that. But to be absolutely clear: this is not a liquidity issue, and ACR is not refusing to pay this player. Phil Nagy
CEO, ACR Poker
12
1
102
13,355
Yes it's a scary headline but is it even a real thing? How can you do margin trading in an asset that could go to zero in an instant?
BREAKING: Kalshi is asking the CFTC to allow margin trading on its platform, which would let users gamble with borrowed funds.
11
41
19,836