@MetrorailModel

This account uses a custom model to forecast daily ridership on the Washington Metrorail and then compares to actual figures when published. Created by @dcadamb

 Washington, DC
Joined June 2026
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To learn about how the Metrorail Forecast model works, read this thread below! 猬囷笍
Adam Bressler@dcadambJun 13
Not sure how many people would be interested in this, but figured I'd share: I made a regression model to forecast ridership on the DC Metrorail. And I am pretty pleased how it turned out! If you want to see how the model is designed and learn some fun discoveries, 馃У below:
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The most accurate station prediction was 馃煚鈿笍New Carrollton (-0.21% error) & the least accurate station prediction was 馃敶Shady Grove (+72.47% error). The station with the highest ridership was 馃敶馃煝馃煛Gallery Place (12,310)
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The actual systemwide tapped ridership on Monday, October 12, 2026 was 305,885, a -11.50% error from the V2 forecast. This is the 55th most accurate forecast since the V2 model began on 8/1/2026 (25th percentile)
Metrorail Ridership Forecaster@MetrorailModelOct 12
Monday, October 12, 2026 is Columbus Day. There is a home preseason Wizards game. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 341,063 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃數鈿笍馃煚Foggy Bottom-GWU (15,289)
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On Monday, October 19, 2026, there are no special events in the Washington region. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 487,810 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃敶Union Station (19,626)
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The most accurate station prediction was 馃數鈿笍Benning Road (-0.98% error) & the least accurate station prediction was 鈿煍礎rlington Cemetery (-108% error). The station with the highest ridership was 馃敶馃煝馃煛Gallery Place (13,872), as predicted
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The actual systemwide tapped ridership on Sunday, October 11, 2026 was 243,802, a -16.70% error from the V2 forecast. This is the 64th most accurate forecast since the V2 model began on 8/1/2026 (11th percentile)
Metrorail Ridership Forecaster@MetrorailModelOct 11
On Sunday, October 11, 2026, the Army 10 Miler is held and there are home Capitals and Commanders game. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 284,511 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃敶馃煛馃煝Gallery Place (15,428)
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On Sunday, October 18, 2026, there is a concert at the Verizon Center. Also Rosslyn, Arlington Cemetery & Courthouse are closed. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 229,063 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃敶馃煛馃煝Gallery Pl (13,677)
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馃數鈿笍馃煚Eastern Market recorded 8,292 tapped entries. This sets a post-pandemic record, breaking the previous amount of 8,038, set on 9/21/24. Saturday, October 10 was the inaugural Capitol Hill Porchfest! 馃搱 @CapitolHillBID
Metrorail Ridership Forecaster@MetrorailModelOct 17
The actual systemwide tapped ridership on Saturday, October 10, 2026 was 373,963, a 2.52% error from the V2 forecast. This is the 18th most accurate forecast since the V2 model began on 8/1/2026 (76th percentile)
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The most accurate station prediction was 馃敶Twinbrook (-0.23% error) & the least accurate station prediction was 馃煝馃煛College Park-UofMD (-59.63%% error). The station with the highest ridership was 馃煝Navy Yard-Ballpark (25,715), as predicted
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The actual systemwide tapped ridership on Saturday, October 10, 2026 was 373,963, a 2.52% error from the V2 forecast. This is the 18th most accurate forecast since the V2 model began on 8/1/2026 (76th percentile)
Metrorail Ridership Forecaster@MetrorailModelOct 10
On Saturday, October 10, 2026, the Banana Bowl is at Nats Park, & there is a preaseaon Wizards game & an international soccer match. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 364,544 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃煝Navy Yard (18,984)
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On Saturday, October 17, 2026, there are home Capitals & Spirit games. Also Rosslyn, Arlington Cemetery & Courthouse are closed. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 335,705 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃敶馃煛馃煝Gallery Pl (22,479)
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The most accurate station prediction was 鈿笍Tysons (-0.71% error) & the least accurate station prediction was 馃數馃煛Pentagon (-43.80% error). The station with the highest ridership was 馃敶馃煝馃煛Gallery Place (18,780), as predicted
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The actual systemwide tapped ridership on Friday, October 9, 2026 was 471,719, a -12.918% error from the V2 forecast. This is the 57th most accurate forecast since the V2 model began on 8/1/2026 (19th percentile)
Metrorail Ridership Forecaster@MetrorailModelOct 9
On Friday, October 9, 2026, there is a home Capitals game. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 532,655 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃敶馃煝馃煛Gallery Place (22,494)
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On Friday, October 16, 2026, there is a concert at the Verizon Center. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 486,204 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃敶馃煛馃煝Gallery Place (18,560)
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Fascinating update! The Metrorail Forecast Model predicted 37,968 paid trips at 馃煝Navy Yard-Ballpark station this past Saturday. It looks like the actual ridership blew this estimate out of the water! Looking forward to the full data release in two days 馃憖馃敎
Metro Forward
@wmataOct 15
Last Saturday at Navy Yard was busy with two huge events: @TheSavBananas Banana Bowl at @NationalsPark and @USWNT vs. Spain at @AudiField. 鈿撅笍鈿斤笍 Navy Yard station saw more than 53,000 trips, leading to the 7th busiest Saturday there since 2020.
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The most accurate station prediction was 馃數馃煛Braddock Road (-0.07% error) & the least accurate station prediction was 馃煝馃煛College Park-UofMD (-31.37% error). The station with the highest ridership was 馃敶Union Station (19,512), as predicted
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The actual systemwide tapped ridership on Thursday, October 8, 2026 was 536,092, a -11.49% error from the V2 forecast. This is the 53rd most accurate forecast since the V2 model began on 8/1/2026 (24th percentile)
Metrorail Ridership Forecaster@MetrorailModelOct 8
On Thursday, October 8, 2026, there is a concert at Verizon Center. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 597,610 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃敶Union Station (23,402)
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On Thursday, October 15, 2026, there is a concert at the Verizon Center. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 583,002 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃敶Union Station (22,859)
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The most accurate station prediction was 馃數鈿笍Benning Road (-0.03% error) & the least accurate station prediction was 鈿笍Innovation Center(+35.36% error). The station with the highest ridership was 馃敶馃煝馃煛Gallery Place (21,642), as predicted
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The actual systemwide tapped ridership on Wednesday, October 7, 2026 was 553,950, a -10.49% error from the V2 forecast. This is the 48th most accurate forecast since the V2 model began on 8/1/2026 (30th percentile)
Metrorail Ridership Forecaster@MetrorailModelOct 7
On Wednesday, October 7, 2026, there is a home Capitals game. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 611,828 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃敶馃煝馃煛Gallery Place (24,563)
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On Wednesday, October 14, 2026, there are home Capitals and DC United games. The V2 Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 622,652 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 馃敶馃煛馃煝Gallery Place (24,696)
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