
Prediction Markets Researcher & Analyst @Polymarket Bull DMs open
Alpha Caller
Joined January 2022
- Tweets28.5K
- Following409
- Followers2.3K
- Likes87.5K
Knight retweeted
Polymarket gives 28.5% that SCOTUS takes a sports event contract case by Dec 31
too high or too low?
New Jersey already asked the court to step in, and Kalshi's response is due Nov 9. the states aren't waiting
> Utah sued Kalshi and two Susquehanna firms that make markets on it. it's the first state lawsuit to name a prediction market's market makers. Utah wants Kalshi to give up an estimated $30.6M to $61.2M in fees from Utah accounts
> Ohio again told its sportsbooks, fantasy operators and suppliers to cut off platforms that offer sports contracts in Ohio without a license. confirm by Oct 30 or the license is in question
> on the federal side, the CFTC told Novig and ProphetX not to list micro markets and scorigami for now. none were live, so no open position is hit
if market makers decide the legal risk isn't worth it, sports order books get thinner
the Third Circuit says these contracts are swaps and federal law shields them from the states. the Sixth and Ninth say they aren't swaps at all
which reading wins at the Supreme Court?
Replying to @KyleDeWriter
thanks for keeping me in the loop! appreciate the updates
for traders it's mostly liquidity. if market makers back off, sports books get thinner and spreads wider
Replying to @polyfactual @morganlai
makes sense for a social layer, you find markets through the people you follow
