Trading Polymarket: entries, exits and the numbers behind them. Building @PredyX_bot, a terminal for Polymarket traders. @zscdao
Joined March 2022
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Polymarket was 90.2% accurate a month before its markets resolved
Four hours out it hits 98.5%. Real money pricing real outcomes.
So I start every trade from the price and read the news second.
My entries and exits go up here, with the size and the result.
I think the market is still the best signal most ppl ignore.
Price first, headlines second.
NCAA's enforcement chief is on stage talking about 18-21 year olds trading
That age band is the athletes and their classmates. The integrity risk sits in the dorm, not on the venue.
The edge in college markets often sits one room away from the player.
VIDEO: @NCAA Managing Director of Enforcement Mark Hicks on prediction market integrity and those 18-21 being able to legally trade on prediction platforms
IG starts UK event contracts with pros only, sports in 2027
Financial contracts this quarter. Politics and sports wait for regulator sign-off, early 2027 at best.
A licence application ships zero liquidity.
New UK betting exchange incoming?
"IG applies for UK gambling licence as it readies prediction markets"
tradeinformer.com/broker-new…
Senator Blumenthal just put Polymarket and Kalshi on notice over VIP programs
Senator Blumenthal had said FanDuel wouldn't be the only company asked about its VIP programs. He meant it.
Today he demanded VIP program info from six more companies:
- Polymarket and Kalshi
- DraftKings and Fanatics
- Caesars and BetMGM
All six have until Nov. 6 to answer.
The sponsor puts up the liquidity, and the sponsor also decides the outcome
In the hiring example the company picks who gets interviewed and is the only one who sees the prices.
Private lists still need a public referee.
2 forms of privacy in prediction markets;
1. odds are hidden but outcomes being traded are public
the benefit: if a company is providing liquidity to get information, keeping the prices private prevents free riding behaviors where competitors can also see the info and act on it
2. outcomes being traded are kept private but whoever has access to them can see the odds
the benefit: companies can't create markets where the outcomes themselves are proprietary information.
for eg a market on "if we review (candidate) application for an open role, would they reach the interview stage?" is useful, but they obviously can't make the list of all applicants public
overall (2) seems more important than (1) in unlocking information finance use cases, since getting good options is much harder than selecting among them
A Polymarket combo pays ~$3.67M on a $10 size
Polymarket upgraded its combo mechanics, which stack several markets into one trade, so ppl can stack "never happens" outcomes across geopolitical markets.
The highest multiplier seen so far is 366,560x. That turns $10 into about $3.67M.
The combo includes:
- China invades Taiwan by end of year
- U.S. invades Iran by end of year
- Putin out as president by end of year
The wild part: someone on the other side has to lock $3.67M for an upside of $10.
A trader is holding 1,459,302 YES shares on an R Senate, R House sweep
The holder is whoareyoun, sitting on YES in Polymarket's 2026 Balance of Power market at 8c.
That's worth $109,448 at the current price. If this side wins it pays $1,459,302, $1 per share.
Wild payout for an 8c ticket. The market prices NO at 92c, so ppl mostly think this misses.
The market traded $1,368,098 in the last 24h, so the position is 8% of one day's volume.
SMALLER than a day of trading. Plenty of turnover to get out before resolution if needed.
The biggest holder on the other side, ndb1, has 641,423 shares. Big conviction on both ends.
I see this as a calendar trade: 13 days to 2026-11-04, and the whole stake rides on one night.
Check this 8c ticket against the 92c NO price before you copy it.
Cole retweeted
what the f*c*.. Grok Bot can now REVERSE ENGINEER any app on the internet and rebuild it on YOUR laptop
I packed my whole reverse engineering workflow into one bot. it's the same setup that rebuilt Bubblemaps, whose API plans run $170-850 a month
throw any app at it and it hands you back a working copy, with proof of how the original works
I needed wallet connections in my token research app and wasn't about to pay for their API, so I sent it Bubblemaps and went off to do other stuff
first thing it did was check the REA package before running it, which made me trust it a lot more with my machine
then it opened four live maps on Ethereum, Base and Solana and worked out which requests pull the top holders, the wallet links and the prices
the data side it rebuilt on public blockchain data, so my version doesn't touch their API at all
I didn't have to sit and watch it. when I got curious I'd type "status?" and it came back with exactly what was done and what was left
now my app has its own bubble map with wallet sizes and shared funding links, and Bubblemaps got $0 from me
most frontier models refuse the second they see "reverse engineer" in a prompt. Grok Bot sets up REA on its own computer and keeps digging until there's something working
grab the bot below ↓
BUBBLEMAPS API PLANS RUN $170–$850/MONTH. I GAVE GROK BOT + REA THE JOB OF BUILDING MY OWN WALLET MAP WITHOUT THAT BILL
I was building a token research system and wanted to explore wallet connections directly inside each report. that's where the idea came from
so I gave Grok Bot the original site and asked it to investigate the data requests and interactions, then build a local version I could adapt
for this kind of work, I'd take Grok Bot over Dots. the speed and initiative are what make it useful to me, especially when I want to leave an investigation running and focus on something else
it can work through websites on its own computer and bring other bots into the job. when something needs my approval, it comes back to me, and I can answer follow-ups from a notification
at $30/month, being able to hand over work this involved is what makes the subscription interesting
my research app already has its own bubble map now, with wallet sizes and shared funding connections. $0 spent on Bubblemaps API access
I've put a recording of the working local build in the comments so you can see it in action ↓
An AI bubble burst definition needs three crashes inside one 90-day window
I went through a contract that calls the AI bubble burst only if 3 of 6 events land within 90 days of the deadline.
Stock triggers: NVDA -50% from its closing high, SOXX (a semiconductor ETF) -40%, or TSM, ASML, AVGO, ANET or SMCI -50%.
Others: OpenAI or Anthropic bankrupt, OpenAI acquired, or H100 rent at $1 or less 5 days in a row.
I think those stock triggers are so linked that one chip crash ticks all three and pushes YES without any OpenAI collapse.
Read the trigger list before the headline.
Limitless prices Juventus at 66% against Rennes today
Limitless, a prediction market for crypto, sports and world events, lists the match with Juventus at 66%, the draw at 21% and Rennes at 14%.
That makes Rennes the clear underdog on the order book.
Kickoff is at 18:45.
Kalshi wants BTC and ETH posted as margin on perps
Leveraged positions backed by collateral that swings with the same market. Wild stack of risk.
When crypto dumps, the margin call and the haircut arrive on the same candle.
Know what your margin is made of.
excl: Kalshi plans to start accepting crypto as collateral for margin trades against perpetual futures. BTC, ETH and stablecoins to start, under a tri-party arrangement w/ BitGo
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
SOL if the Fed cuts is a cool product with a liquidity problem
Every condition splits the same money into thinner books.
Stack all five ideas and I think spreads get brutal before the product gets interesting.
Depth decides which of these survive.
have a feeling prediction markets × AI will produce some of the most interesting financial products over the next few years.
a few mechanisms already being tested:
> conditional futures: trade SOL's price if the fed cuts, not just whether it cuts.
> decision markets: traders put money behind which strategy a DAO or company should execute.
> impact markets: trade how much an event moves BTC rather than whether it happens.
> interconnected markets: new information in one market updates the probabilities of related outcomes, exposing potential mispricings.
> agent markets: AI agents paying each other for forecasts, trading outcomes and competing to allocate capital.
i'm especially bullish on combining these.
we might be looking at the early stages of financial markets where AI isn't just helping people trade, it's an active participant.
Kalshi goes to court on Election Day, three appeals in one room
Kalshi CT, Coinbase CT and Kalshi NY heard together on Nov 3. One panel sets the tone for both states at once. Wild timing.
Watch the ruling, the audio is the easy part.
Kalshi is listing markets on admissions rates at top colleges
Kalshi told federal regulators it is putting up markets on the admissions rate at top schools.
The list includes Princeton, Stanford, Penn, Duke, UCLA, WashU and others.
College acceptance numbers as a tradeable contract. Wild.
It also creates new insider trading risks at every one of these schools.
72 million new SpaceX holders right before a possible merger vote
$10.5B in gifted shares landing just as SpaceX and Tesla set up merger committees. Wild timing, and I think the timing is the point.
Read the cap table before the headline.
Daily Market Report #829
It’s Wednesday, the middle of the week, and the big news comes from Elon Musk. He will give one of his own SpaceX shares to every child in America next year. There are just over 72 million Americans under 18, and SpaceX closed Friday at $146.03, so that’s about $10.5B.
It’s worth looking at what else happened at SpaceX this week. The company reported Q3 revenue of $14.58B against expectations of $12.87B, and Elon says SpaceX and Tesla have set up special committees to consider a merger that could become the biggest corporate deal ever. Giving 72 million children a share is generous. It also creates 72 million new SpaceX shareholders right before a possible merger vote. Both things can be true.
And back home, Switzerland approved its first spot Bitcoin ETF for retail investors, offering direct BTC exposure under Swiss fund rules. Another bank-grade on-ramp in the country I live in, after Sparkassen went live next door in Germany this week.
Bitcoin is at $82,728, up 0.9%. ETH is at $2,443, SOL at $106, and XRP at $1.33. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 63.
Bitcoin is coiling. Its Bollinger Band width is at one of its tightest levels in 2.5 years, while one-year realised volatility has fallen to 43%, compared with a 10-year average of 64%. The daily uptrend is broken, and $80K keeps getting tested, with weaker bounces each time. The big bids that used to sit below $80K have been filled. Altcoin open interest is still higher than Bitcoin’s, and funding remains positive, meaning people are still paying to stay long. Tight ranges like this usually end with a big move. Nobody knows in which direction.
Here’s the part I want to be honest about. Fear & Greed is showing greed, not fear. In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin corrected heavily around the midterms before finding a bottom. Durable bottoms came with real fear, and we’re not there yet. That doesn’t mean another move down is guaranteed. It means the kind of washout people usually expect at a bottom hasn’t happened.
BTC ETFs took in $526.6M on October 19, led by BlackRock, while ETH ETFs lost around $103M. Solana ETFs extended their outflow streak, and XRP ETF demand paused. The money that does come into the market is going into Bitcoin first.
Inflation is heating up again. September CPI rose to 3.7% from 3.4%, while producer prices jumped 1.3% in a single month, the biggest increase since March 2022. Warsh, when asked about it in Bangkok, said, “I don’t prejudge meetings.” The market gives the October 28 meeting only about a 15% chance of a hike but is pricing in roughly an 89% probability of a higher rate by December 9. December is now the meeting to watch. The 10-year yield is at 5.15%.
Oil is approaching $110 for Brent after a missile struck an office tower at Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters, while the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi energy and airport facilities. WTI is at $98.87. Meanwhile, Trump waived new tariffs and banking sanctions on Russia, and a Treasury licence allows Russian diesel to flow until April 2027. Gold is at $4,115, trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while silver is at $57.32. Several Indian fund houses have paused new subscriptions to gold funds.
Ken Griffin says investors are “almost certainly” in an AI bubble and compared the situation to the period before the dot-com crash. The credit market already appears to agree with him. CDS volume tied to hyperscaler debt has increased nearly 5x since June, Oracle’s CDS reached new highs, and CoreWeave’s hit a record. Broadcom’s CEO compared AI investors to casino gamblers. In Korea, Elice, an AI data centre company, raised $151M in an IPO that was 400 times oversubscribed by retail investors, only to fall around 30% on its first trading day.
And according to the WSJ, Anthropic’s draft IPO filing shows soaring revenue but an $80B net loss, with up to $750B in computing expenditure planned over the coming years.
Tesla and Meta report earnings after the US market closes tonight. Their AI spending plans are now being presented to a market that is openly calling the sector a bubble.
The tokenisation fight is getting real. Goldman, McDonald’s, and Microsoft are pushing back against having their shares tokenised under the new SEC framework, after 9 firms objected to OKX and ICE yesterday. Some of the biggest public companies don’t want their shares onchain without their permission. Ripple backed the SEC’s Reg Crypto proposal, arguing that the investment contract is the security, not the token itself, and that oversight should end once an issuer’s promises have been fulfilled.
Utah sued to halt Kalshi, joining New York, Minnesota, and Baltimore. By one count, at least 82 crypto projects have shut down this year because of weak demand, empty treasuries, declining revenue, and hacks.
One small thing from the Abstract shutdown I wrote about on Monday. The Bearish NFT collection has started moving its bears from Abstract to Ethereum. On the first day, 3,405 bears migrated, representing 48.7% of the collection across 414 holder wallets. A new mint of 500 bears sold out in less than 90 minutes, with all the ETH going into the BURR liquidity pool.
ZEC is at $1,258, up 9.4%, bouncing strongly. Monero is at $576, down 4.8%. PENGU is at $0.0080, up 5.4%. HYPE is at $80.72, LINK at $12.33, TAO at $271, and DOT at $1.16. ARB is at $0.1907, down 4.3%, while STRK is at $0.0570.
NEAR launched NEAR Business, a private multisig treasury solution that allows crypto teams to pay employees and move funds across more than 35 chains. Pumpfun expanded into perpetuals through Hyperliquid and launched “prestocks” tied to AI and prediction-market names. Citi says Aave could become the main collateral layer for tokenised assets.
Lagarde speaks this evening, 8 days before the ECB’s decision. US services PMI is due on Friday, and a strong reading would add weight to the case for a December rate hike.
Fear & Greed is at 63. The bottoms in 2018 and 2022 came with fear, not greed.
What are you watching?
Official volume dashboard goes live at @Polymarket, updated every hour
It shows daily volume for Polymarket US, the CFTC-regulated exchange, and Polymarket International, the onchain venue.
It was built by Max "Primo" Mershon, who ran the early stats site Polymarket Analytics and now sits on Polymarket's data team.
A $4.13 trade lands onchain as two events, buyer and seller, so most dashboards show $8.26. Paradigm flagged it last year.
I see this one-side count, the same method as the API, as the first volume figure ppl can quote as is.
Count every trade once.
