bullish

Polymarket gives 28.5% that SCOTUS takes a sports event contract case by Dec 31 too high or too low? New Jersey already asked the court to step in, and Kalshi's response is due Nov 9. the states aren't waiting ＞ Utah sued Kalshi and two Susquehanna firms that make markets on it. it's the first state lawsuit to name a prediction market's market makers. Utah wants Kalshi to give up an estimated $30.6M to $61.2M in fees from Utah accounts ＞ Ohio again told its sportsbooks, fantasy operators and suppliers to cut off platforms that offer sports contracts in Ohio without a license. confirm by Oct 30 or the license is in question ＞ on the federal side, the CFTC told Novig and ProphetX not to list micro markets and scorigami for now. none were live, so no open position is hit if market makers decide the legal risk isn't worth it, sports order books get thinner the Third Circuit says these contracts are swaps and federal law shields them from the states. the Sixth and Ninth say they aren't swaps at all which reading wins at the Supreme Court?

WOOOOW INSAME

A DRAW KILLS A HOME-WIN LEG JUST LIKE A LOSS TONIGHT'S UCL PRICES PUT THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE DRAW IN THESE 9 AT 86% yesterday 2 of 9 games were draws ＞ Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia ＞ Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético the draw is priced highest in Lille vs Galatasaray at 26.5% Bayern vs Arsenal and Como vs Man United are next at 25.5% the 4 big favorites aren't safe either Inter, Real Madrid, Sporting, Aston Villa: 44% chance at least one of them gets held to a draw which one ends level tonight?

@polysuccubus @ProblyHQ

5+ GOALS IS PRICED HIGHER THAN EITHER TEAM WINNING TONIGHT PSG vs Barça on @ProblyHQ ＞ PSG win: 38.5% ＞ Barça win: 40.5% ＞ 5+ goals: 43.5% PSG are at home and have won the last two Champions Leagues. the market still trusts the over more than them for scale, in each of the last two seasons, 39 of 144 UCL league phase games hit 5+ goals. that's 27% this fixture runs hotter. their last 5 UCL meetings: ＞ Barça 1-4 PSG ＞ PSG 1-1 Barça ＞ PSG 2-3 Barça ＞ Barça 1-4 PSG ＞ Barça 1-2 PSG 20 goals in 5 games 5+ goals at 45¢. what's your scoreline?

THE TIMELINE WANTED BLACK MONDAY 2.0. FUTURES OPENED GREEN ＞ S&P futures +0.5% vs Friday's close, Nasdaq futures +1% ＞ VIX 18.7 this morning, down from 19.99 on Friday on @xomarket, YES needs the S&P to close at 7,276.46 or lower that's about 5.4% under where futures point right now since 1990 the S&P has had 22 days of -5% or worse. the day before every one of them, VIX closed above 23. Friday's close: 19.99 history isn't a rule, and the whole session is still ahead so, YES or NO into the open?

NOTED

EVERYONE ON YOUR TIMELINE IS CALLING BLACK MONDAY 2.0 NOW YOU CAN TRADE IT Oct 19, 1987: the S&P 500 lost 20.47% in one day. this year Oct 19 is a Monday again so i made a market on @xomarket : will the S&P 500 close down 5% or more on Monday? [ beta.xo.market/event/will-19… ] why 5%: a 5% down day is a real crash. the S&P has had 20 since 2000, the last on April 4, 2025 why everyone is talking about it ＞ Nasdaq -4.48% last week, chip stocks (SOX) -11.41% ＞ the S&P only -1.95%, and the Dow finished the week up 0.67% ＞ VIX jumped 21% on Friday to 19.99 the selloff is real, but it's a tech selloff. the Black Monday talk is mostly about the date just a scary date, or a real crash? YES or NO?

HUUUGE