Polymarket gives 28.5% that SCOTUS takes a sports event contract case by Dec 31 too high or too low? New Jersey already asked the court to step in, and Kalshi's response is due Nov 9. the states aren't waiting ＞ Utah sued Kalshi and two Susquehanna firms that make markets on it. it's the first state lawsuit to name a prediction market's market makers. Utah wants Kalshi to give up an estimated $30.6M to $61.2M in fees from Utah accounts ＞ Ohio again told its sportsbooks, fantasy operators and suppliers to cut off platforms that offer sports contracts in Ohio without a license. confirm by Oct 30 or the license is in question ＞ on the federal side, the CFTC told Novig and ProphetX not to list micro markets and scorigami for now. none were live, so no open position is hit if market makers decide the legal risk isn't worth it, sports order books get thinner the Third Circuit says these contracts are swaps and federal law shields them from the states. the Sixth and Ninth say they aren't swaps at all which reading wins at the Supreme Court?

A DRAW KILLS A HOME-WIN LEG JUST LIKE A LOSS TONIGHT'S UCL PRICES PUT THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE DRAW IN THESE 9 AT 86% yesterday 2 of 9 games were draws ＞ Fenerbahçe 2-2 Slavia ＞ Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético the draw is priced highest in Lille vs Galatasaray at 26.5% Bayern vs Arsenal and Como vs Man United are next at 25.5% the 4 big favorites aren't safe either Inter, Real Madrid, Sporting, Aston Villa: 44% chance at least one of them gets held to a draw which one ends level tonight?

5+ GOALS IS PRICED HIGHER THAN EITHER TEAM WINNING TONIGHT PSG vs Barça on @ProblyHQ ＞ PSG win: 38.5% ＞ Barça win: 40.5% ＞ 5+ goals: 43.5% PSG are at home and have won the last two Champions Leagues. the market still trusts the over more than them for scale, in each of the last two seasons, 39 of 144 UCL league phase games hit 5+ goals. that's 27% this fixture runs hotter. their last 5 UCL meetings: ＞ Barça 1-4 PSG ＞ PSG 1-1 Barça ＞ PSG 2-3 Barça ＞ Barça 1-4 PSG ＞ Barça 1-2 PSG 20 goals in 5 games 5+ goals at 45¢. what's your scoreline?

THE TIMELINE WANTED BLACK MONDAY 2.0. FUTURES OPENED GREEN ＞ S&P futures +0.5% vs Friday's close, Nasdaq futures +1% ＞ VIX 18.7 this morning, down from 19.99 on Friday on @xomarket, YES needs the S&P to close at 7,276.46 or lower that's about 5.4% under where futures point right now since 1990 the S&P has had 22 days of -5% or worse. the day before every one of them, VIX closed above 23. Friday's close: 19.99 history isn't a rule, and the whole session is still ahead so, YES or NO into the open?

EVERYONE ON YOUR TIMELINE IS CALLING BLACK MONDAY 2.0 NOW YOU CAN TRADE IT Oct 19, 1987: the S&P 500 lost 20.47% in one day. this year Oct 19 is a Monday again so i made a market on @xomarket : will the S&P 500 close down 5% or more on Monday? [ beta.xo.market/event/will-19… ] why 5%: a 5% down day is a real crash. the S&P has had 20 since 2000, the last on April 4, 2025 why everyone is talking about it ＞ Nasdaq -4.48% last week, chip stocks (SOX) -11.41% ＞ the S&P only -1.95%, and the Dow finished the week up 0.67% ＞ VIX jumped 21% on Friday to 19.99 the selloff is real, but it's a tech selloff. the Black Monday talk is mostly about the date just a scary date, or a real crash? YES or NO?

the $1WIN sale filled its $3.9M in 8 minutes, per @1winToken can it get 5x oversubscribed? easy imo. i'm in YES one day in, deposits sit at $5.54M i made a market on @xomarket : does the sale pass $20M in deposits by Oct 30? ＞ $20M is 5.13x the sale size ＞ that needs about $1M a day from here ＞ after the first 8 minutes, day one added $1.64M ＞ the top 8 wallets put in 29% of the pool if it gets there, $1,000 in gets you about $195 of tokens at sale price. the rest comes back after the sale 14 days left. YES or NO?

UPtober in 4 dates. the 4th one is today Oct 2: bitcoin:native peaks at $87,220 Oct 8: dips to $80,394 Oct 14: hot core CPI. Fed hike odds on Polymarket go 17.5c → 54c in under an hour. bitcoin:native $83,169 → $81,682 → $80,226 overnight today: PPI and retail sales 3 numbers to watch before the data hits: ＞ 27.5c Polymarket odds of another 25 bps Fed hike on Oct 28. the odds gave back most of the CPI jump. bitcoin:native didn't recover ＞ 84.5c Polymarket odds bitcoin:native falls to $80,000 in October. a single 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at or below $80,000 resolves it YES. the overnight low came within $226 ＞ 26.5c Polymarket odds bitcoin:native reaches $87,500 in October, a new high for the month. it was 54c right before CPI UPtober needs +3.3% from here to finish green. can PPI bring it back?

Polymarket's token $POLY talk is back look where the money comes from first since Sep 1, per @DefiLlama: ＞ Polymarket US: $13.9B traded, about $100M in fees ＞ Polymarket International: $6.2B traded, $44.8M in fees ＞ Perps: $757M at the mid-September peak, $341M last week the US app runs on KYC, dollars and a CFTC license the international app and perps are closed to US users. a token built on that side would be too Bloomberg says Polymarket is choosing between equity and a token the part that earns the most already works without a token and the crypto market structure bill stalled in the Senate in September i think an IPO is the safer move for the business until US token rules are clear what would $POLY give Polymarket that the US app isn't already giving?

the whale's 10x survives a 25% drop. yours survives 7% trader 'Bright Owl' on @entropyIO, long io:NBIS (Nebius): ＞15,000 NBIS, $3.03M, average entry $207.74, -$89k on paper ＞leverage is set to 10x, but there's $820k of margin behind it. real leverage is about 3.7x ＞liquidation sits way down at $152, 25% below the current price ＞on Oct 6 they sold 1,000 NBIS at about $253. today they bought 1,000 back at about $205 ＞hold 43% of this market's open interest ＞funding paid since opening: $126k open a fresh 10x long on the same market at $202 and liquidation is near $188, about 7% down. this perp fell 7.2% in the last 24 hours [ entropy.io/?r=knightpredict ] when you copy a whale, do you copy the entry or the margin?

the busiest market on @entropyIO is SanDisk. the biggest is Anthropic ＞Anthropic perp: $43M in open positions, $7.7M traded in 24h ＞SanDisk perp: $4.8M in open positions, $49M traded in 24h the SanDisk perp is down 7.4% in 24 hours and traded over 10x its open interest. on Oct 7 it was 5.5x Anthropic stays under a quarter the perp kept trading after the stock market closed. between Friday's close and Monday's open, $64M of SanDisk changed hands on Entropy. Anthropic, $21.5M weekend moves are capped at 10% from Friday's close. at the open the cap comes off the SanDisk perp traded as high as $1,619 on Sunday and as low as $1,466 after today's open. a 10x long opened on Sunday would have been liquidated [ entropy.io/?r=knightpredict ] would you rather hold Anthropic before its IPO, or trade SanDisk while the stock market is closed?

a Hormuz deal headline isn't enough to get paid on this Polymarket Senate control plus a US-Iran deal by Nov 2 almost 1,000 words of rules, here's the short version [ polymarket.com/event/who-win… ] what counts ＞the US and Iran both accept the same deal by Nov 2, 11:59 PM ET, jointly or in separate statements ＞the deal has to commit Iran to letting ships through Hormuz what doesn't ＞talk of progress, like Trump's "productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran" on Oct 8 ＞Iran letting ships through on its own, outside a deal ＞one side announcing a deal the other doesn't confirm the Senate ＞majority wins. at 50-50 it goes to the party holding the vice presidency ＞independents count with the party they caucus with timing ＞no deal by Nov 2: "No Hormuz Agreement" resolves right away ＞a deal: you wait for the full Senate count, runoffs included, even past November ＞a vague announcement can sit unresolved for up to 14 days on Oct 11 Iran called the US response "insufficient". on Oct 12 it said it will reply once its review is over this market prices a deal by Nov 2 at 17% the standalone deal markets, same deal wording, have Oct 31 at 13% and Nov 2 at 14 to 15% no on "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" costs 93¢ and loses only on a deal plus a Republican Senate not free money. the market gives that combo 7%, and a deal turns it into a Senate trade still the cleanest side here would you take 93¢ now or wait for Iran's reply first?