Assistant Prof of Political Science @TAMU. US political economy & ag policy. Trying to follow Jesus, work in progress.
Joined July 2018
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Thrilled my paper with @namalhotra is out at @apsrjournal! Have you always been captivated by the impacts of trade policy on political behavior, applications of causal machine learning, and shocks to soybean prices? Ok well regardless this is still the paper for you! A thread 🧵
Just published on APSR First View: “Policy Impact and Voter Mobilization: Evidence from Farmers’ Trade War Experiences”, by Jake Alton Jares and Neil Malhotra. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Jake Jares retweeted
Check out our new package!
Parallel trends in doubt? The Triply Robust Panel (TROP) estimator relaxes it and now has official Python and Stata packages.
Python (pip install trop): github.com/zhaonanq/TROP-Est…
Stata: github.com/justinwaddy/TROP
Built by Zhaonan Qu, Xuelin Yang, Justin Waddy & Damian Clarke
Why "triply robust": TROP combines unit weights, time weights and a regression adjustment based on a low-rank factor model. Its bias is bounded by the product of unit imbalance, time imbalance and misspecification of the regression adjustment, so it is asymptotically unbiased if any one of the three removes the underlying bias.
In 20 of 21 simulation designs calibrated to widely used datasets (CPS, Penn World Table, and case studies such as the Basque Country and German reunification), TROP had the lowest RMSE of six estimators, including DID, synthetic control and SDID. With few treated units and periods, other estimators become more competitive.
Both packages choose tuning parameters by cross-validation and report bootstrap standard errors and confidence intervals.
Paper by @Susan_Athey (our Faculty Director), @guido_imbens, Zhaonan Qu and @VivianoDavide , now in the Journal of Applied Econometrics: doi.org/10.1002/jae.70061
(arXiv version: arxiv.org/abs/2508.21536)
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This pic isn't a warning to us. It's a warning to other countries. We will take your smartest, hardest-working citizens and turn them into Americans. We're a machine and you can't stop us. Look upon our soft power and despair.
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Impressive @ThadKousser @namalhotra et al. field experiment had few effects on election attitudes of TX conservatives despite exposure to "an average of 20 online videos, 18.5 cable TV videos, 23.9 display ads, 3 text messages & 3 postcards" - high-quality content crafted by pros
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BREAKING: Over 10,000 two-way fixed effects analyses recalled due to contamination with heterogeneous treatment effects.
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Elizabeth Warren comes out strongly against happy hour
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We don't need to buy Immanuel Kant's books, we have Immanuel Kant at home
Immanuel Kant at home:
Really admirable scholarship on display. Sorry about the (somewhat) failed manipulation, but thanks for setting an example for scientific honesty / transparency.
(And maybe the failure itself is substantive re how tightly bound people view income / status / working conditions!)
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New paper w/ @hannohilbig : we examine how local exposure to the Great Recession affected politics over the long run.
Counties where unemployment rose more in 2007–09 moved toward Democrats, not the populist right. The shift remained visible in 2022.
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Why is it always communist coffee shops. Has anyone tried a communist regional beverage distributor? What about a communist B2B software startup
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I find political scientists' lack of attention to effect sizes/substantive significance deeply troubling.
Jake Jares retweeted
using the term as it was devised (a luxury belief being a thing wealthy people say to signal status while not being something they actually do and has big cost to poorer people), a left-wing luxury belief might be something like "abolish prisons" and a right-luxury belief might be something like "teen pregnancy is good" or "don't go to college"
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me, begging, crying, on my knees: "Please just use plain english, I don't understand what you're saying."
Claude: "The right fix, and the book's lesson applies: the tutorial rotted as a front door because a front door full of claims always rots. So the new root holds only what's timeless — the thesis and three doors — and every claim lives behind it in the thing that goes red when stale."
Jake Jares retweeted
To be rich without a 4 year college degree usually involves being a small business owner. In this article, we do one of the most in-depth surveys of the political preferences of small business owner and why they lean right: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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Crazy number of people on my timeline acting as if they’ve ever heard of the Jacobian conjecture before
Jake Jares retweeted
The first paper from my dissertation is now out in Political Science Research and Methods.
A short thread 👇
🌐 What shapes high-end cooperation among militant groups?
➡️ Using network data on 53 groups in Northeast India, @ilaydaonder shows that cooperation is more likely between groups with complementary capabilities and distinct constituencies. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Anyone else who studies climate change getting their Claude Fable 5 conversations flagged as a security risk? I don't see what's so dangerous about soil moisture and heat trends, unless they suspect I'm some kind of cartoon movie villain who is trying to blot out the sun.
Jake Jares retweeted
Many people think business influence pushes policy to the right, in favor of smaller government. But when it comes to *local* governments, businesses and business associations often support well-funded, competent government. My new @PoPpublicsphere article explains why.
