NFL/NBA gambling expert. Psychological background. 9+ years in the business.
United States of America
Joined April 2019
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3-2 on the week. Felt much better than the record suggests.
Feeling mediocre about this next week coming up. Only have 2 things I’m looking at.
The week after this upcoming one though, I have a major play.
2026 NFL Record: 20-10
3-1
I took the value on the alt line at 13.5 (+140). If you took the actual 10.5 line, congratulations.
Browns +4.5✅
Saints ML✅
Raiders +3.5 1st half✅
Raiders Team Total Over 13.5 (+140) ❌
1 to go
Jaguars ML✅ (last week) / Cowboys ML Parlay⏳
2026 NFL Record: 20-9
NFL Week 6 full card:
Browns +4.5
Saints Moneyline (-110)
Raiders +3.5 1st Half
Raiders Team Total Over 13.5 1st Half (+140)
Jaguars ML✅(last week) / Cowboys ML parlay
2026 NFL Record: 17-8
NFL Week 6 Saints @ Giants:
Saints Moneyline (-110)
I have leaned the Saints way since the week opened. Since then, I have done nothing but read how important this game is for the Saints organization. The owners are currently fed up, and the pressure is on.
Luckily, the Saints are on the road, where they are 7-0 ATS in their last 7.
Also luckily... I have found a trend:
The Giants just tied a divisional game. Teams that qualify for this simple trend are 2-14 straight up ALL TIME.
I expect the Saints to play hard today. We should get maximum effort.
Go take a look at the teams the Giants have played, then take a look at the teams the Saints have played. The Saints have played much tougher quarterbacks and running backs, and now play against Jameis Winston and Najee Harris.
2026 NFL Record: 17-8
My only fear is that the Bills are the better team and they come back, but I really believe the Raiders could win outright. It's one of those that I would tell survivor pickers to beware
Browns down to +3.5 now.
Bills dropped from -5.5 to -4.5, 1st half to -3.
Got both the public and line movement correct.
Cowboys ML still active with Jaguars ML parlay.
Tonight I lean Seahawks, only moneyline, nothing else. Maybe parlay 1/4th of your bet on it with Colts ML.
NFL Week 6 Ravens @ Browns:
Browns +4.5 (-110)
My last 3 reads on the Browns:
Week 3 Panthers @ Browns
No play from me, but I took the Panthers the next week because I knew it was just a bad spot for them in this game. The public bet the Panthers here and lost.
Week 4 Steelers @ Browns
Took Browns +7.5 in a teaser. Won straight up. The public lost.
Week 5 Browns @ Jets
Took Jets moneyline in a parlay. Good read. The public lost.
Week 6 Ravens @ Browns
Yet again. The public will likely lose.
3 easy angles:
1. The Ravens are going from Sunday night primetime on the road -> divisional favorite on the road. Psychologically, they are riding high right now. But I think the public perception of them is too high after that win. Other than Week 1, each game has been by 1 possession, and I even think Week 1 was more about the Colts having problems than the Ravens doing good. Also a bit of a revenge dynamic in there as well after Steichen cooked both the HC and DC for 400 yards last season.
2. It is easy to overlook the Browns. Everyone knows how bad the Browns have been while making fun of Deshaun Watson, and on the opposite side everyone knows Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry as faces of the league. Likewise everyone knows Lamar Jackson's trend against the NFC, but what about the Browns at home in division games? That simple trend is 11-2 since the beginning of the 2022 season, and 1-0 to start this year as well. It can be tough to play in Cleveland.
3. Todd Monken's old team is the Ravens. You best believe he isn't sleep walking into this game, and you better believe he is going to help with the defense in reading that Ravens offense. I expect a lot of people to pick the Ravens because it looks too easy, and then hear that news as the game is starting.
So far the strategy for me has been betting the Browns when they have been in a good spot, and this one also looks to qualify for that. I am worried about the Browns injuries, particularly Schwesinger, but he played through it last game and I expect the same here. Judkins is also injured, but the running game hasn't been good, and McLaughlin isn't a big drop off I believe.
The Ravens will easily be a top 5 most picked public team, and I don't expect the line to reflect that.
And a funny stat... Deshaun Watson is 2-0 against the Ravens since joining the Browns. 1 against Lamar Jackson, 1 against Tyler Huntley.
2026 NFL Record: 17-8