NFL Week 4: Cardinals @ Giants One of the rare times I will side with the public, but I think it is now slightly more likely for the public to win currently, than to lose. I'm impressed with the Cardinals. Maybe it is because other teams aren't taking them serious, or maybe they are simply lucky, but I believe they have played quality football through 3 weeks so far, except for the 2nd half against the Seahawks. I believe this is more so the Seahawks themselves, rather than the fault of the Cardinals. The Seahawks are clearly a better team with much more experience and chemistry. They also played pretty well last week. I had a strong feeling the Cardinals would cover vs the 49ers, and they got it done, despite the 49ers hyper-offense putting up 36 points on them. This week though, they find themselves against the weakest team they have faced so far. Think about it. They have played 3 teams who were projected to be in the playoffs, and now face the Giants who are celebrating a win vs the TITANS. I feel like psychologically, the Giants are coming into this with a small amount of complacency, while the Mike LaFleur is going to do his best to get his guys to bounce back this week in a game they SHOULD win. Jameis Winston is in to play QB here, an although I like him as a player, he is not the type of QB you want here in a game that could be seen as not serious. He will likely have at least 1 interception. I'd like to point out Brian Burns tore his ACL last game, and won't be on defense for the Giants as well. I like the Cardinals here. I don't really know why they haven't hung the -3.5 for them yet. Cardinals -2.5 2026 NFL Record: 14-3

NFL/CFB Week 3 Free play: Jaguars ML/Florida ML Parlay (+160) Patriots @ Jaguars Week 1 I gave my outlook on the Patriots for the future. To sum it up, they have the quarterback, the head coach, and are building the pieces now to become a serious team that doesn't have to rely on an easy schedule. Well, a major piece to this immediately gets injured vs the Seahawks and won't be playing till around week 7. Without AJ Brown, I don't expect them to win vs this Jaguars team. The Jags have everything you could possibly want from a growing franchise, and now you get them at home in weather they are used to versus a team from about as far North as you can go. I LOVE the Jaguars to bounce back here off their loss. Ole Miss @ Florida I don't play college much, and when I do, it has to be a special circumstance. This game definitely has one. To put it simply, the last game that Ole Miss played was a SuperBowl. High emotion, high etensity, high effort. A great amount of energy was given to beat Lane Kiffin and now they are "playing down" into a team that I believe is "playing up". Psychologically, think about it like this: If a very good team plays a bad one, sometimes that good team will do just enough to try to get by and win. This is that scenario, except Florida is by no means a bad team. I believe they will catch them by surprise. Even though this has a college play in it, I will still be counting it to my "NFL" record because it involves NFL. 1 more free play will be posted later tomorrow. 2026 NFL Record: 9-3

NFL Week 2 first play: Bengals @ Texans + Giants @ Rams This is an easy 2 for 1 that relies on one side much more than the other. Bengals @ Texans Even though the Texans lost, I am still impressed with the game itself. The Bills clearly have a ton of life to their team (evident in their preseason games) and were not going to be easy to beat with a familiar change to the Head Coach position as well as the addition of DJ Moore. Many got caught in the "Josh Allen 0-3 @ Texans" 3 game sample, and ignored the rest. To put up 31 points combined with 2 turnovers though, shows me exactly what I though about the Texans: It can't get worse than last year. Last year, the offense for the Texans was TERRIBLE. But this year, they finally helped the offense. +Braden Smith (Guard, but injured) +Wyatt Teller (Guard) +Evan Brown (Guard) +Ed Engram (Guard) +David Montgomery (Great RB they NEEDED) +Kayshon Boutte (underrated role WR) It's pretty clear what the message is. Stroud better work with this, or he is out. As for the Bengals, I'm optimistic, but not by much. Sure they put up 33 points... while receiving 4 turnovers. Maybe you can say this is good on the defense, but I believe this is more about the Buccaneers. To put it bluntly, I believe the Buccaneers are fraudulent. 3rd place in NFC South AT BEST. I've had this team as the #2 regression candidate since last year (also due to the rise of the Saints/Panthers) and there is real potential of a top 5 pick. So saying that, the logic here is simply the Texans played great against a great opponent, and now get to play AT HOME against a decent team that played a bad one (and also benefited heavily from it). I'd also like to say TrendCenter put out a trend for the Bengals that scared me at first. It is something like the Bengals against NON-DIVISIONAL opponents since 2022 are 30-14-2 ATS. But add "as a dog" to that and... they have lost 10 outright in a row. The last win wasn't last season, or the one before that, but in December of 2023 where they won in overtime. I like my odds here with the Texans MONEYLINE, combined with: Giants @ Rams This is easy I believe. The Giants made an impressive upset, but now have to fly from New York all the way across the country to LA after playing on SNF. Certainly not something you want to do as a team with an entirely new coaching staff, young QB, and after a divisional game. Especially not an angry and fully complete team like the Rams, who get extra rest in return after playing on Thursday. The film study sessions during this time have probably been as focused as ever. Hopefully the public rides on the Giants so I can play the Rams by themselves at the -7 as well, but we will see. THE PLAY: Parlay Texans moneyline + Rams moneyline (+110) I have a play for the 2nd window I'll post ~2 PM CST Sunday. 2026 NFL Record: 6-1

Week 2 NFL Lions @ Bills pick+writeup: I said it last week, I'll say it again today, and I'll say it again 10 more times this season. These aren't the same Lions you saw from 2021 to 2024. The ones that went 47-19-2 (71.2%) ATS in the regular season is such an unprecedented and unsustainable level that is has to have regression to the mean. What does that mean exactly? It simply means we saw the peak, and they are more likely now to LOSE against the spread, than to win. That is of course, unless you somehow believe they will still cover 71.2%+ of their games. Talent-wise they are pretty good. I'll give you that. But as for coaching... all they really seem to have is Dan Campbell's motivation factor. Not disrespecting their intelligence, their scheme, whatever you want to say, but they don't have the experience to stand up against these top teams anymore at the coordinator position. Now, in a few years... maybe so. I'd also like to say the Lions straight up got bailed out multiple times in that Week 1 game vs the Saints. The Saints should have had 2 fumbles (1 for a touchdown) and should have never been down 21-0 like they were. And to back this up, Tyler Shough played TERRIBLE for 3 quarters until he picked apart that defense that I explicitly also said was missing their best 2 corners. As one of you commented under that post, this was going under the radar. But not only are they missing them again this game, they also have 3 of their starting O Line out. So not only do you have to keep up with the Bill's hyper-offense in the first place, you are weaker to defend it... while being at an experience disadvantage.... for their first game in their new stadium. Yeah good luck, because with DJ Moore, they got even better. There's a reason I had Bills/Texans as a lean to the OVER. I just had to verify my thoughts there. Now, you guys know that I do not enjoy riding with the public. I sent that screenshot Tuesday with the ????? when I saw that Action Network was reporting that the public was at 72% on the Lions, because I expected a small to medium public percentage favoring the Bills around 60%. I am not entirely sure why it is still being reported that the public like the Lions this much, but I am going to commit to the mindset that the Bills are public here by around 65%, instead of the Lions. If the public are truly on the Lions still, then take the Bills -5.5 and don't think. So what do I recommend if I hate riding with the public? I already took the Bills -4.5 on Monday so I personally didn't take a 1 point CLV loss, and -5.5 is just about the same because I don't see it being close. If you are a little scared or want a bonus play, take the Bills moneyline + Cowboys moneyline. I watched both NFC East matchups last week, even won on the most confident play of the week (Commanders +5.5), and can confidently tell you that the likelihood of the Cowboys losing this game is highly unlikely. Dak Prescott has an insane record at home against divisional opponents, and he has gotten it done with much worse, against much better opponents. I'll be grading both of these as my plays for this game: Bills -5.5 Bills ML/Cowboys ML Parlay (+110) 2026 NFL Record: 5-1

NFL Week 1 picks: All 3 have insightful, in-depth analysis. ⭐️Ravens @ Colts🏈50 Retweets+Likes ⭐️Saints @ Lions🏈100 Retweets+Likes ⭐️Commanders @ Eagles🏈150 Retweets+Likes ⭐️My read on every game🏈200 Retweets+Likes NFL Record: 2-0 Patriots +3.5✅ 49ers +3.5✅

NFL Week 1 Rams @ 49ers (in Australia) Good win on the Patriots +3.5 last night✅, now it's time for some more NFC West propaganda. We all know the Rams have been building a superteam. They have the: Ownership/Front Office Head Coach Offensive Coordinator Defensive Coordinator Quarterback MULTIPLE great receivers Solid running back depth Solid O-Line And a top 10 defense **WITHOUT MYLES GARRET AND AARON DONALD** They only lack in 1 area... special teams, and I believe this is the main reason the Seahawks were successful over them last year. I also need you to know, the Rams are 3-0 in international games. The combined score of all 3 of these games are... 92-17. 2017 Week 7: Rams 33-0 Cardinals 2019 Week 8: Rams 24-10 Bengals 2025 Week 7: Rams 35-7 Jaguars These games are heavily one sided, but I have to state that out of all 3 of these games, not 1 of those opponents were more than average at the time they played them. None of these were even close to the best. This matters because when comparing those 3 results to the 49ers, the 49ers: 1. Were recently successful (the rest had bad seasons previously). 2. Have a solid team + HC/OC + an identity 3. Actually stand a chance in their divisional series (the Cardinals do not). In the history of the Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay, Shanahan holds the upper edge with 11 wins to 7 losses. But, most of these wins come from before 2024. Here are the matchups in the last 2 years: 2024 Week 3: Rams win 27-24 as 6 point dog 2024 Week 15: Rams win 12-6 as 2.5 point dog 2025 Week 5: 49ers win 26-23 as 8.5 point dog 2025 Week 10: Rams win 42-26 as 6.5 point fav Even though the last game wasn't that close, the rest are 3, 3, and 6 points... and this is considered as when McVay finally gets the upper edge on him. I will say, I DO BELIEVE the Rams are the better team if they played out of 100 games TODAY, but not by much. The 49ers have been in Australia for much longer than the Rams have, and it isn't past week 3 yet so the 49ers have at least 40% of their starters healthy. And lastly as a little bit of extra information, Shanahan is 7-1 ATS vs the Rams in his last 8 matches when he was the dog, with the only loss being the last matchup. I'll take my field goal. The sportsbooks would also like this result I believe. 49ers +3.5

Looks like AJ Brown to the Patriots post June 1. Even if it isn't the Patriots though, I believe it is a less than 10% chance he stays with Eagles.

Tease the Bears to 7.5 Tease the Chargers to 9 And collect the check

Vikings @ Chargers 8u writeup: You'll learn something reading this. I hate losing. Last week, I successfully won on both of these team's games. I took the Colts +2 against the Chargers, and then I also took a teaser with the Colts to 8 and the Vikings to 8 as well. The Colts was a breeze but the Vikings was extremely sweaty, and I believe this is because the Eagles were in a real get-right game. This combined with the fact that Carson Wentz threw an interception in the red zone, and then a pick 6 on top of it, yet the Vikings still hung on to the very end and only lost by 6. So far this season, I believe the Vikings have followed this story: Week 1 vs Bears: Got luck vs a rookie head coach, even though you know how much respect I have for Ben Johnson. Week 2 vs Falcons: After getting lucky, and the Falcons getting unlucky, I played Falcons here simply because I believed Falcons would play UP while the Vikings played DOWN. This ended up going well because their new QB JJ McCarthy was caught off guard by the great Falcon's defense. Week 3 vs Bengals: I've already called this game before, it was simply the Vikings then playing UP to a team that just lost its quarterback and who got LUCKY because the Jaguars choked their game. Pretty much the opposite of what happened week 2 for the Vikings where they got lucky vs the Bears and then got smacked by the Falcons. The Vikings season numbers will be inflated here, simply because I believe they wanted to run the score up to boost their locker room morale early in the season. Week 4 vs Steelers: International game. These are hard to judge in my opinion, but the line was -2.5 and I remembered leaning towards teasing through 0. In all honesty, I had no play, because on twitter if you tease through 0 and win, you are considered lucky, and if you lose, you lose all credibility. So I'm not being a part of that. Skipped this game. Week 5 vs Browns: Here, I leaned the Browns at +3.5. I believe earlier they were at 4, but I didn't take anything here because my read wasn't fully ready yet on this team, and I don't want to partake in back to back international games usually. I believed Dillon Gabriel was both slightly underrated, and his own backup QB (Sanders) called him out on Instagram, which would definitely have activated a dog inside of him for his first start against the Vikings defense. I believe this game went the way it did because of a lot of variables, but I can sum it up to this: Vikings had a decent game against a GREAT defense. Opposing quarterback did WELL for his first start. Week 6 vs Eagles: This game was always Vikings +2 or a teaser in my eyes. There is a big difference in the DOMINANT Eagles of last year vs the GOOD Eagles of this year, and I believe the Viking have experienced play calling to push through the good teams that are struggling. Only this game, it was more of an Eagles get-right game, and it almost cost me there, but we still win. And now we are into Week 7 vs the Chargers. You see, I chose the Chargers to win their division this year. I think their QB is good, their scheme is good, their head coach is highly motivational, and I expected a slow Chiefs start (which I got, but it didn't last too long.) But there is a problem with the Chargers. They are clearly struggling. Whether it be because of play calling, injuries, or just unlucky matchups, to have had such an amazing start but to fall to the level they have now, is not a good sign. I'll give them their credit of winning and covering 3 straight division games. But... To then lose to the Giants in Dart's first start. Okay, unlucky I guess. To then lose to the Commanders by 17, when they were one flag away from returning a punt to be up 17-3. Unfortunate? To then go to Miami, and BARELY scrape by with a win at 29-27???? Tua threw THREE INTERCEPTIONS and 15 points of the Chargers 29 is from FIELD GOALS. What??? And then the Colts game, which was, at no point at all, a close game that I expected. Every single sharp lined up to take the Chargers, because they expected their offense to be able to put up points on that secondary... and they only scored 24... despite being in a HIGHLY FAVORABLE environment to put up points... This team has a problem. And you know a team I think that doesn't have a problem? The Vikings. They have the play-calling edge on both offense and defense in my eyes. If you want to say the Chargers have the better quarterback, go ahead, but don't forget this guy has thrown 6 picks in 4 of the last 5 games. The MVP chants have gone away just as quick as they started. And speaking of Quarterback/Offense/Play-calling, go look at the summary of the play-by-plays for the Vikings @ Eagles. The Vikings marched down the field just about every single drive vs that Eagles defense with Vic Fangio, while the Eagles certainly did not. All Carson Wentz has to do is not throw a pick, because Kevin O'Connell is a pretty high-end offensive coordinator and will keep it moving. One last note. Both the referees and the public favor us tonight. This is usually the side I always like to be on. I do believe shady shit does happen in this league, so it is favorable to know my side has insurance. Speaking of the public though, the Chargers are a "what if" team today. That is why they like them. I'm taking 2 bets today. One is my main pick, and one is insurance + another pick that I will likely do a writeup for. This strategy has only given me 1 loss, with the one singular leg loss being cooked by Baker Mayfield #5. This strategy even survived betting on the shittiest offense that money can buy (Texans). And they got 4 turnovers, got a defensive TD, Jason Myers missed his biweekly clutch field goal, Seattle had 12 penalties as well. Fuck the Texans and the Bucs. Forever. Had to get that out in here somewhere. I've also bet on the Falcons a lot this year, with last week being my first loss on them. And in all honesty, it was easily the worst pick I have put out. While I accept my Texans loss, the Falcons was absolutely not my type of wager. My apologies. Vikings +3 (-102) 4.00 units to win 3.92 6 point teaser (-120) 4.00 units to win 3.33 Vikings +9 Falcons -1.5 Baker Mayfield cooks me week in and week out. Because when I am against him, he does the impossible, and when I'm on him, he turns into the most scared quarterback to ever sling the rock on the field. Any week that I am on a Buccaneers game, just know, I lost. I respect the dog in him, but he don't respect my coin.🤘

Steelers @ Bengals 4u writeup: Before the season, I believed the Bengals were going to be slightly better than they were last year. Unfortunately... the captain of their only win condition gets injured. In comes Jake Browning to try and save them. STARTING IMMEDIATELY, IN WEEK 2, he plays: Week 2: Jaguars (3 ints in 3 quarters, and won?) Week 3: @ Vikings (T10 defense) Week 4: @ Broncos (T2 defense) Week 5: Lions (T15 defense, but it's the Lions) I mean let's be real. LOOK AT THESE TEAMS. They have ELITE coaches with ELITE quarterbacks and GOOD to GREAT defenses. The only case you could make, out of all these head coaches and quarterbacks, is Carson Wentz. But I believe that game went the way it did because the Vikings were playing extremely hard after that Falcons loss, and they wanted a locker room boost so they ran the score up. Even if you think Jake Browning sucks, like I do, I have to admit that he didn't really stand a good chance. But do you also know who had no chance? Joe Flacco on the BROWNS. Unless you know exactly what you are talking about, anyone who touches an organization like the Browns, Jets, Panthers, Giants, ect., MUST BE THOROUGHLY REVIEWED. This has been proven now, for just about most players. And my personal review of Joe Flacco is: he is trustworthy, and I believe in him. In just his first start, with hardly any preparation against the team I predicted to win the Super Bowl (Packers), he kept fighting, got 2 touchdowns, and protected the ball. This is exactly what I need. On the other hand, we have the 🔥SURGING🔥 Steelers. Take a look at these MASSIVE victories: -Week 1 against the DYNASTIC Jets with JUSTIN FIELDS AND A ROOKIE HEAD COACH, where they only allowed 32 points💪 -Week 2 against the Seahawks, where they got BLASTED by my 5 unit play against them💰 -Week 3 against the Patriots, where they had a +4 fumble margin and put up a HUGE 21 points🔥 -Week 4 in Ireland vs Carson Wentz, where they won the turnover margin 2 to 0, and still only put up 24 points. 7 of those came from a DK METCALF 80 YARD TOUCHDOWN. (actually somewhat respectable👍) -But wait, 4 days ago they beat the BROWNS in Dillon Gabriel's 2nd ever start. This guy, as a rookie, really started his FIRST game IN LONDON, and then went on the road AGAIN, INTO A DIVISIONAL GAME. Nobody but the 🔥SURGING🔥 Steelers can take advantage of that!!! And now the public media, that overblows everything to ever exist, is now smashing that Steelers -5.5. They must not know Mike Tomlin's Thursday night record... Or who Aaron Rodgers plays next week... Maybe you should go check those two things out. 6 point teaser (-120) 4.00 units to win 3.33 Bengals +11.5 Cowboys +7.5 Trust me on the Cowboys. You already know I bet the NFC East the best. 💰13-1 on 4+ unit plays💰

Bears @ Commanders WRITEUP 💰THE BIGGEST PLAY I HAVE EVER PUT OUT💰 As of today, I am 10-1 on 4+ unit plays. And as of now, I have 3 separate 4 unit plays all riding on the Bears: Rams -1.5✅/Bears +10.5 Teaser Chiefs +3.5 ✅/Bears +11.5 Teaser Bears +5 In all of my years of betting the NFL, I will never get a team that will play with as much heart, passion, and hunger, as the Bears will today. Nobody truly understands me when I say this, but Ben Johnson thinks, AND KNOWS, that he is, AND WILL BE, known as one of the best to ever do it. The amount of belief and inspiration that radiates from this guy has completely transformed his team AND this franchise. And before you tell me they are just 2-2 in week 6, I will simply tell you this: I do not care. My eyes don't lie to me. Now why does this make this such a big play? On October 27th, 2024, the Bears lost to the Commanders by a freak Hail Mary touchdown with 2 seconds to go. At the time, the Bears were 4-3, and actually having a decent season... But this game completely broke the team. The Bears went on to lose 9 straight games afterwards, and only picked up a win at the end of a season by luck in a game that didn't matter. But you know what else? Ben Johnson was also robbed of the ring by this same team. Had the Lions beat the Commanders, I believe they would have beaten the Eagles and went on to win the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. The Lions put up 31 points, but they lost because they turned the ball over FIVE TIMES TO ZERO. They completely beat themselves in that game. And knowing Ben Johnson's pursuit of perfection, he probably thought about this game for months and months. I'd also like to add the fact that I have been very good at betting on NFC East games. So far this season, I have taken ONE loss on the Giants +6 because Daboll's dumbass wouldn't put in Dart at half, or any point during the game really. Other than that, ALL are wins. I have had this Commanders team REGRESSING from their perfect season last year, while I have had the Bears as the biggest buy low stock of the offseason. And here, they come to face each other in the ULTIMATE revenge spot. And one last note. I don't care what type of fan or hater you are. The quarterback that paints his nails has proven that he deserved the first overall pick. And he will be THE MAN today. I dream of these spots. Bears +5 Watch the clip. Bet responsibly. Tell your girl that the vacation is on me.

NFL Week 7: Saints +3 (+100) 3.00 units to win 2.86 Seahawks -1.5 (-102) 3.00 units to win 2.94 Of my 5 plays this week, these 2 are the only ones lower than 4 units. Also need to do recap of last week. It was pretty good but just been locked in. 10-1 on 4u+ plays.