The question as it relates to week 6 is not figuring out what to bet, it's how much. It's very rare for me to struggle when trying to size my positions according to my edge. The underlying issue? There are 5 spots grading out as 3+ unit plays --> The opportunity is massive!

Raiders 1H+3.5✅ Raiders+5.5✅ Raiders+6✅ Raiders ML✖️ Raiders+9.5 *Live*✅ We came through the backdoor.... Which will be open in perpetuity against the Buffalo Bills.

RAIDERS vs. BILLS (NFL WEEK 6) I find this game to be fascinating, particularly because I faded the Raiders with a max bet in week 5. As I started handicapping this game, I quickly realized that all the reasons I was buying the Patriots are not present this week. In fact it's the exact opposite. Patriots Defense = Elite vs. Play-Action Bills Defense = Terrible vs. Play-Action (Kirk Cousins Elite via play-action) Patriots Defense = Single High/Middle Closed Bills Defense = 2 high/Middle Open (Kirk Cousins attacking in between the numbers) Situionally, does it get any better? Bills off OT win on the west coast. Raiders off back-to-back losses, back at home, indoors on a fast track. And don't even get me started on this market environment..... Which is about as Bullish as it gets.

The 1st multi-unit bet: Texans+3 (2u)✅✅ Texans+3.5 (1u)✅ TexansML (1u)✅ Texans+8.5/Bucs+8.5 (TBD) CJ Stroud was built to take advantage of the Jags defense.... We got 3 more big wagers still pending... 1 kicks off in 10 mins. 2 of them in the afternoon slate

Let’s go a little deeper with the Patriots vs Raiders spot… Is Kirk Cousins equipped to take advantage of the injuries the Patriots have at the outside corner back position? Kirk is an immobile QB, who lacks arm strength, targets the center of the field at a top 5 rate, and 65% of his yards are in the center of the field. (Leads the NFL) The Patriots play single high shell at a ridiculously high clip, which comes with a middle hook and deep 3rd safety. Single high safeties force QB’s to operate outside the numbers; An area of the field Kirk doesn’t want to attack because of his physical limitations. There’s a reason this number is at 3/3.5, the bookies are taking a stand and siding with the Patriots.

Tough handicap for Thursday Night Football, but I think the streak shall continue. If you want a breakdown on a particular game, let me know in the comments. (Recording tomorrow) Seahawks vs Broncos Prediction: Best Bet for NFL Week 6 youtu.be/q_i5amYdG6s?is=AyBc… via @YouTube

Let’s go a little deeper with the Patriots vs Raiders spot… Is Kirk Cousins equipped to take advantage of the injuries the Patriots have at the outside corner back position? Kirk is an immobile QB, who lacks arm strength, targets the center of the field at a top 5 rate, and 65% of his yards are in the center of the field. (Leads the NFL) The Patriots play single high shell at a ridiculously high clip, which comes with a middle hook and deep 3rd safety. Single high safeties force QB’s to operate outside the numbers; An area of the field Kirk doesn’t want to attack because of his physical limitations. There’s a reason this number is at 3/3.5, the bookies are taking a stand and siding with the Patriots.

To elaborate further on this spot between the Patriots vs. Raiders as it relates to the Patriots defense vs. Play-Action. There is a real sharp group talking about the Patriots woes vs. the play-action pass. I don't see it in the numbers or the tape. Patriots are 7th in Play-Action rate against. Yet they are 5th in defensive EPA/Dropback. If you watch the tape vs. Buffalo, the only real success the Bills had via the play-action pass was due to a blown coverage by Craig Woodson playing the middle 3rd. All of the other successes were created by Josh Allen's mobility, something Kirk Cousins simply does not have. What about Trevor Lawrence? 82 passer rating in play-action passes. What about Aaron Rodgers? 68 passer rating in play-action passes. So immobile Kirk Cousins is going to play outdoors for his 1st time all-season, without a run game, and run play-action with a high success rate? Uh huh......