NFL/NBA gambling expert. Psychological background. 9+ years in the business.
United States of America
Joined April 2019
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I TOLD YOU. I FUCKING TOLD YOU. I KNOW WHAT I SEE.
MY MOST CONFIDENT PICK OF ALL TIME.
BEARS NOT ONCE💰
NOT TWICE💰
THREE FUCKING TIMES💰
13-1 ON 4+ UNIT PLAYS.
3-2 on the week. Felt much better than the record suggests.
Feeling mediocre about this next week coming up. Only have 2 things I’m looking at.
The week after this upcoming one though, I have a major play.
2026 NFL Record: 20-10
3-1
I took the value on the alt line at 13.5 (+140). If you took the actual 10.5 line, congratulations.
Browns +4.5✅
Saints ML✅
Raiders +3.5 1st half✅
Raiders Team Total Over 13.5 (+140) ❌
1 to go
Jaguars ML✅ (last week) / Cowboys ML Parlay⏳
2026 NFL Record: 20-9
NFL Week 6 full card:
Browns +4.5
Saints Moneyline (-110)
Raiders +3.5 1st Half
Raiders Team Total Over 13.5 1st Half (+140)
Jaguars ML✅(last week) / Cowboys ML parlay
2026 NFL Record: 17-8
NFL Week 6 Saints @ Giants:
Saints Moneyline (-110)
I have leaned the Saints way since the week opened. Since then, I have done nothing but read how important this game is for the Saints organization. The owners are currently fed up, and the pressure is on.
Luckily, the Saints are on the road, where they are 7-0 ATS in their last 7.
Also luckily... I have found a trend:
The Giants just tied a divisional game. Teams that qualify for this simple trend are 2-14 straight up ALL TIME.
I expect the Saints to play hard today. We should get maximum effort.
Go take a look at the teams the Giants have played, then take a look at the teams the Saints have played. The Saints have played much tougher quarterbacks and running backs, and now play against Jameis Winston and Najee Harris.
2026 NFL Record: 17-8
Browns down to +3.5 now.
Bills dropped from -5.5 to -4.5, 1st half to -3.
Got both the public and line movement correct.
Cowboys ML still active with Jaguars ML parlay.
Tonight I lean Seahawks, only moneyline, nothing else. Maybe parlay 1/4th of your bet on it with Colts ML.
NFL Week 6 Ravens @ Browns:
Browns +4.5 (-110)
My last 3 reads on the Browns:
Week 3 Panthers @ Browns
No play from me, but I took the Panthers the next week because I knew it was just a bad spot for them in this game. The public bet the Panthers here and lost.
Week 4 Steelers @ Browns
Took Browns +7.5 in a teaser. Won straight up. The public lost.
Week 5 Browns @ Jets
Took Jets moneyline in a parlay. Good read. The public lost.
Week 6 Ravens @ Browns
Yet again. The public will likely lose.
3 easy angles:
1. The Ravens are going from Sunday night primetime on the road -> divisional favorite on the road. Psychologically, they are riding high right now. But I think the public perception of them is too high after that win. Other than Week 1, each game has been by 1 possession, and I even think Week 1 was more about the Colts having problems than the Ravens doing good. Also a bit of a revenge dynamic in there as well after Steichen cooked both the HC and DC for 400 yards last season.
2. It is easy to overlook the Browns. Everyone knows how bad the Browns have been while making fun of Deshaun Watson, and on the opposite side everyone knows Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry as faces of the league. Likewise everyone knows Lamar Jackson's trend against the NFC, but what about the Browns at home in division games? That simple trend is 11-2 since the beginning of the 2022 season, and 1-0 to start this year as well. It can be tough to play in Cleveland.
3. Todd Monken's old team is the Ravens. You best believe he isn't sleep walking into this game, and you better believe he is going to help with the defense in reading that Ravens offense. I expect a lot of people to pick the Ravens because it looks too easy, and then hear that news as the game is starting.
So far the strategy for me has been betting the Browns when they have been in a good spot, and this one also looks to qualify for that. I am worried about the Browns injuries, particularly Schwesinger, but he played through it last game and I expect the same here. Judkins is also injured, but the running game hasn't been good, and McLaughlin isn't a big drop off I believe.
The Ravens will easily be a top 5 most picked public team, and I don't expect the line to reflect that.
And a funny stat... Deshaun Watson is 2-0 against the Ravens since joining the Browns. 1 against Lamar Jackson, 1 against Tyler Huntley.
2026 NFL Record: 17-8
Planned on releasing it tonight…
Of course.
Breaking: #Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is out for Sunday due to a superficial blood clot.
Full statement from the #Eagles on QB Jalen Hurts:
“On Thursday, October 8th, Jalen visited the training room after practice requesting treatment for his calf. He informed the medical staff he had been cleated during the Rams game on October 4th. This was his first treatment session for the calf injury following the game, after having practiced in full both Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, Jalen received treatment, practiced in full, and was added to the practice report.
“Out of an abundance of caution, an ultrasound was performed on Saturday following the team’s flight to London and walkthrough. The ultrasound revealed a superficial blood clot. Our medical staff and doctors in London reviewed the results and concluded that activity and mobility were important and that Jalen could safely play. Doctors recommended a follow-up ultrasound within 72 hours of the game and the return flight to Philadelphia.
“Jalen played without limitation in the game Sunday, received treatment on Monday and Tuesday, and practiced in full on Wednesday, as reflected in the practice report. Throughout our time in London and this week, we have remained in communication with the league office regarding the matter.
"On Wednesday night, a follow-up ultrasound revealed movement in the small blood clot. Jalen will be out for Sunday’s game vs. the Panthers as we determine the appropriate course of treatment. His health and safety are our highest priority.”
NFL Week 6 Ravens @ Browns:
Browns +4.5 (-110)
My last 3 reads on the Browns:
Week 3 Panthers @ Browns
No play from me, but I took the Panthers the next week because I knew it was just a bad spot for them in this game. The public bet the Panthers here and lost.
Week 4 Steelers @ Browns
Took Browns +7.5 in a teaser. Won straight up. The public lost.
Week 5 Browns @ Jets
Took Jets moneyline in a parlay. Good read. The public lost.
Week 6 Ravens @ Browns
Yet again. The public will likely lose.
3 easy angles:
1. The Ravens are going from Sunday night primetime on the road -> divisional favorite on the road. Psychologically, they are riding high right now. But I think the public perception of them is too high after that win. Other than Week 1, each game has been by 1 possession, and I even think Week 1 was more about the Colts having problems than the Ravens doing good. Also a bit of a revenge dynamic in there as well after Steichen cooked both the HC and DC for 400 yards last season.
2. It is easy to overlook the Browns. Everyone knows how bad the Browns have been while making fun of Deshaun Watson, and on the opposite side everyone knows Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry as faces of the league. Likewise everyone knows Lamar Jackson's trend against the NFC, but what about the Browns at home in division games? That simple trend is 11-2 since the beginning of the 2022 season, and 1-0 to start this year as well. It can be tough to play in Cleveland.
3. Todd Monken's old team is the Ravens. You best believe he isn't sleep walking into this game, and you better believe he is going to help with the defense in reading that Ravens offense. I expect a lot of people to pick the Ravens because it looks too easy, and then hear that news as the game is starting.
So far the strategy for me has been betting the Browns when they have been in a good spot, and this one also looks to qualify for that. I am worried about the Browns injuries, particularly Schwesinger, but he played through it last game and I expect the same here. Judkins is also injured, but the running game hasn't been good, and McLaughlin isn't a big drop off I believe.
The Ravens will easily be a top 5 most picked public team, and I don't expect the line to reflect that.
And a funny stat... Deshaun Watson is 2-0 against the Ravens since joining the Browns. 1 against Lamar Jackson, 1 against Tyler Huntley.
2026 NFL Record: 17-8
NFL Week 6 Bills @ Raiders:
Check the picture.
Raiders 1st Half Team Total Over 13.5 (+120)
Raiders +3.5 1st Half (-105)
The Bills are coming off a very emotional win vs the Rams and stay on the road here. The Bills defense is not strong, and while they played UP last game, they are now going to come in comfortable and play downwards into a Raiders team that will come into the game extremely focused.
Kubiak has been great as an OC to start the season so far. 27, 26, 35, 27, and then had a bad game with only 17 last week. The team just got beatdown but will be prepared coming into this game. The 1st drive script will likely be executed well, and the players should look better than normal driving the ball down the field due to them being more focused.
This is also the type of game you would get a Josh Allen interception in. Don't be surprised when the Raiders are leading at one point and the Bills are being forced to throw the ball.
I expect the public to hammer the Bills, while I expect the line to go towards the Raiders.
I'm not worried about Jeanty. He's young and will be fine, but as for the Bills... their entire defense is banged up.
2026 NFL Record: 17-8
I got cocky. Think that is my second loss on the Bears since the Cowboys week 3 game last year. If you look below, I should've trusted myself more when I wasn't.
3 picks and detailed writeups for Week 6 come out tomorrow. I got the proof you'll like them.
Not an official play, but I would've taken Bills +2.5 first half today if DJ Moore played. Think they come in more focused. It is across the country, but the Bills have played 3 straight at home. They should be more than prepared. Just my lean and read. Probably going to live bet Bills at half if I think it looks right at a good number.
Week 5 Recap: 1-2
Buccaneers +10 LIVE ✅
Jaguars ML + Cowboys ML Parlay (Pending)
Bears ML❌
Bears ML + Jets ML Parlay ❌
2026 NFL Record: 17-8
NFL Week 5 Bears @ Packers MAX PLAY:
BEN JOHNSON.
I didn't second guess it last week.
I didn't second guess it the week before that.
People believe these are trap lines. They are, to trap the sharps.
It is obvious to everyone he is an offensive genius, but it is not obvious yet that he is one of the few who have truly mastered the psychology of being a head coach.
He has the life of the team in the palm of his hands. Every player will give maximum effort, every play.
Do you actually understand why DJ Moore was traded? Great player, but takes plays off. So Ben Johnson traded him while his stock was high.
And you really tell me this mentality will lose to THIS version of the Packers? The Packers only have one hope, and that is:
This will have to be the most egregious referee ball you've ever seen.
Ben Johnson is not taking this game off. None of the players will take this game off.
Maybe Ben Johnson pulls the ultimate checkmate here... and plays Caleb Williams. It's not out of the possibilities. After all, I was one of the first ones to say that it was Tyson Bagent who would start last week. I understand the psychological games he plays.
This is a game for Mike Ditka as well. Rest in peace.
Bears Moneyline (-120, given out last Sunday)
Bears Moneyline + Jets Moneyline PARLAY (+210)
2 wins when I win. 2 losses if I were to lose.
2026 NFL Record: 17-6
Referees just saved a 30 point blowout on the first play.
NFL Week 5 Eagles @ Jaguars (London):
I've already posted my play for this game during my TNF writeup for the Buccaneers @ Cowboys, but I will explain my reasoning.
The play is simply Jaguars Moneyline + Cowboys Moneyline parlay at +120. To clarify with you, this is the Cowboys NEXT WEEK when they play the Packers. I covered that game some already in that writeup.
The only way I can explain this game is to simply say it like this:
When I was looking at the lines when they first came out, the Jaguars were at -4.5. My first thought was instantly Jaguars -9.5 alt line.
But, because of how public it is, and how much the public has been losing on these types of games, I HAVE to recommend to just parlay it with another moneyline you like this week. This is the same advice I gave for the Bears last week if you were scared.
I've said it since the beginning. This Eagles team is so fraudulent. There was a deep reason why it was failing and I quite literally think it is because Jalen Hurts and the offensive coordinator have absolutely ZERO chemistry. Like I mentioned in Week 1, I fully believe AJ Brown saw this and why he acted the way he did. He wanted out of it. Now look where this team sits.
And now they meet one of the hottest teams in the league in London, in which the Jaguars are very familiar with. If you don't know this, they have played the most London games in the league. Also, what a coincidence their owner quite literally owns Fulham FC... the Premier League soccer team based in London.
There is no possible way I can see the Eagles covering this number. If anything, its Jaguars by 20, but like I mentioned earlier with the public, I have to just take the Moneyline in a parlay with another game I like.
Official play: Jaguars ML + Cowboys ML Parlay (+120)
The Cowboys line will go up much more after the Bears beat the Packers.
2026 NFL Record: 17-6 💰
NFL Week 5 Eagles @ Jaguars (London):
I've already posted my play for this game during my TNF writeup for the Buccaneers @ Cowboys, but I will explain my reasoning.
The play is simply Jaguars Moneyline + Cowboys Moneyline parlay at +120. To clarify with you, this is the Cowboys NEXT WEEK when they play the Packers. I covered that game some already in that writeup.
The only way I can explain this game is to simply say it like this:
When I was looking at the lines when they first came out, the Jaguars were at -4.5. My first thought was instantly Jaguars -9.5 alt line.
But, because of how public it is, and how much the public has been losing on these types of games, I HAVE to recommend to just parlay it with another moneyline you like this week. This is the same advice I gave for the Bears last week if you were scared.
I've said it since the beginning. This Eagles team is so fraudulent. There was a deep reason why it was failing and I quite literally think it is because Jalen Hurts and the offensive coordinator have absolutely ZERO chemistry. Like I mentioned in Week 1, I fully believe AJ Brown saw this and why he acted the way he did. He wanted out of it. Now look where this team sits.
And now they meet one of the hottest teams in the league in London, in which the Jaguars are very familiar with. If you don't know this, they have played the most London games in the league. Also, what a coincidence their owner quite literally owns Fulham FC... the Premier League soccer team based in London.
There is no possible way I can see the Eagles covering this number. If anything, its Jaguars by 20, but like I mentioned earlier with the public, I have to just take the Moneyline in a parlay with another game I like.
Official play: Jaguars ML + Cowboys ML Parlay (+120)
The Cowboys line will go up much more after the Bears beat the Packers.
2026 NFL Record: 17-6 💰
