Less than 10% of stocks (blue line) are in strong uptrends. Concentrated in high-vol megacaps. Red line is the underperformers - 35% of the market in weak trends. Record breadth means index doesn't reveal lived performance of most stocks. Data from bytetrend.io

Where is the alpha in global markets? Find out here ⬇️

Bad times at $DKS, -28% today. This follows bad results at JD Sports last week, and continued weakness at $NKE.

Sharing this scares me almost as much as doing it! It's our first quarterly webinar on the ByteTree Quality strategy. @AtlasPulse introduced, and I spoke for what felt like an eternity but was in fact around 25 minutes, before we tackled some clients' questions. We talked about how we define "quality" in investing, how the portfolio differs from the index (fewer companies, better companies, cheaper companies), gave some commentary on the current market environment, and finally, gave an overview of the three companies whose notes we have made public - Diageo, Nestlé, and Amadeus. The cheapest service we offer, ByteTree Quality is designed for armchair investors who want a high-conviction, low-effort strategy for the long-term. This webinar gives an overview of our thinking and the portfolio, which was completed in July. youtu.be/H8bxlSy7DHM?si=F8YY…

I never really paid attention to Reddit $RDDT Until I saw that ROIC inflection. +14% today on the S&P inclusion news.

Consumer staples stocks are enjoying a strong couple of months, as they were unloved and cheap. However, this is mainly true in Europe. P&G traded at a wide premium to its peers, based on higher returns on invested capital and a clear, stronger portfolio of brands. Peers are copying its portfolio management, divesting underperforming brands. Its 50-100% valuation premium over Unilever $UL is now shrinking, as $ULVR has risen 10% in price since June, while $PG has gone nowhere. P&G vs world index shows years of underpeformance:

The Chinese biotech revolution isn't slowing down... On Monday, we wrote up WuXi Apptec $WUXIF in our free trend-following note for clients. We said, "China is the new kid on the biotech block. As in many industries, it started small and low-end, but has grown in scale and sophistication and now threatens historic Western rivals. WuXi is one of the companies leading this charge. In China, they are getting bigger drug trials, more quickly, as recruitment is easier. Sales dipped in 2024, but have returned to 20% growth, cash generation is strong, the analysts are bullish, and it pays a growing dividend." Hours later, it surged 11% overnight, as it raised its full-year revenue forecast on strong first-half results. Full note in comments ⬇️

Andy Burnham has commented on $GSK's new innovation hub in Cambridge: "This investment by GSK is a vote of confidence in British business. A boost for home-grown innovation and expertise. And a step towards more people getting access to new medicines and cutting-edge treatments that will change lives for the better." $GSK + 8% today, accelerating up away from its 200d MA:

I post about the 3x leveraged Korea ETF $KORU quite often. Why? Three reasons: 1. It's funny. It makes big moves. It has 300% vol, and makes chart patterns that look like Mt Fuji, or the Matterhorn. 2. It's a leading indicator, as its structure creates forced selling taking Korea down with it, with knock on effects on the global AI/tech trade, and therefore all global markets. So its movements matter. 3. It makes me angry. Look at the chart below. It shows AUM. Most of that is ordinary folk, getting sucked into a stupid product designed to destroy lives, just before it does so. The argument that "people made millions on the way up" is wrong. A few won, a lot lost. We mustn't criticise "people" for "not learning". For many, this might be their first time investing. Sucked in by online hype and their national champions leading the hot sector. It is the cash-grabbing creators and lackluster regulators of these things we should judge. Our industry must do better.

Fundsmith's Momentum Pivot, a 🧵. I have looked at the sales and cash flow multiples for every stock Terry Smith has bought or sold. In short, he is selling low and buying high. But he also says, "We will take more account of momentum — both fundamental and share price — in our investment decisions." Now it just so happens that at @ByteTree, we have spent the last year thinking about momentum a lot, and building a tool to help map and analyse momentum in financial markets. So let's use it to run through Fundsmith's recent buys, and see what we find...

Terry Smith's Fund Sales - A Momentum Analysis 🧵 In my last thread, I ran through everything Fundsmith bought in H1, judging it with the 5-point trend scoring system we use at @ByteTree. Now, let's look through what he sold...