Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.
Joined April 2024
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Quant Chad retweeted
🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES !
Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him.
Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to promote the site.
WSJ investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign.
It found:
- $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real.
- 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings.
- Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning
Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own
But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all.
- > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account.
- anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing.
- he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades
This is a BIG blow for Shayne !
Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket.
Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone.
And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses.
His position has never been weaker.
It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.
Kalshi just got scammed by a fake Indian Chief !
They wanted to sign a deal with a tribe to launch a Kalshi branded prediction market.
but the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi is trying to gain the support of Native American by bribing they with juicy partnerships.
They thought they had struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, Chief of the Quassarte tribe.
Except Wilson Yargee was not the real chief.
the next the actual Chief of the Quassarte denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (legit) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now the legality of the deal rests on this succession dispute :
> The legitimist faction behind Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, backed by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi thought they were smart trying to buy the support of tribes before their supreme court case and now they are stuck solving Tribal succession disputes.
Well deserved.
This is the funniest prediction-market story ever
Kalshi signed a partnership with a Native American tribe to launch a prediction market
But some guy is claiming HE is the real chief and that the person who signed the deal had no authority to do it
Idk how this even happens. You can't make this shit up
LMAO Kalshi just signed a deal with a fake tribal chief !
They tried to sign with a Native American tribe to launch a Kalshi partnered prediction market.
Except the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi has been trying to court the support of Native tribes with the following deal :
- The tribes launch their own branded prediction market apps.
- Kalshi provides the exchange, liquidity and infrastructure.
- Tribes receive a percentage of trading fees.
They already signed 5 tribes and thought they had just signed a 6th when they struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, the chief of the Alabama-Quassarte tribe.
But the next day, Samuel Marshall, claiming to be the actual Chief denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power.
Samuel Marshall Jr. (real) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now this dispute turns into a legal conflict :
> The legitimist faction behind Samuel Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, supported by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi tried cynically buy the support of Native Americans tribes in their upcoming supreme court battle for the legality of prediction markets.
Now they are looking forward to a long legal process trying to adjudicate a Triblal succession dispute.
这品种点差会吃掉你一半利润，短线慎做。
NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them.
We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof.
A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media.
Here's what they discovered 👇
1. Their calls are trash.
Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades.
On those exact same bets:
- avg. KOL return: +12.3%
- avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4%
If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity.
1. KOLs are WORST traders than average.
> 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading.
> 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money.
So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha.
If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves.
If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.
NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them.
We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof.
A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media.
Here's what they discovered 👇
1. Their calls are trash.
Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades.
On those exact same bets:
- avg. KOL return: +12.3%
- avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4%
If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity.
1. KOLs are WORST traders than average.
> 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading.
> 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money.
So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha.
If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves.
If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.
Quant Chad retweeted
Polyguana is aware of the php2shell exploit, eMudhra (emSign) CA leak & Node.js CVE-2026-111497.
Don't care. Because
- we do NOT use PHP
- we do NOT use Indian root certificates (not even in our packages)
Points distributing as expected & Still the cheapest prices in prediction markets
Event indices are a great idea.
Basically you can bet on a weighted basket of events that represent some broader significance or expression. Inn some cases of he individual components can even act as hedges for one another.
Might experiment with some of these for @Trueo_
that's actuall exactly what @ZEITFinance is doing with their worldviews app.zeit.finance/worldview/
Robinhood allegedly preparing a NINE-FIGURE grant program for Robinhood Chain.
That's >$100M for builders.
Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets.
that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February.
This will make RobinHood chain's activity EXPLODE.
The initial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July.
in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved:
- $53.3B in monthly DEX volume
- 10.8M daily transactions peak
- Over $1B in stablecoin supply
But since mid September, the momentum started fading :
- Daily transactions down 42%
- Active addresses down 31%
- Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now.
I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum
If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building :
- Tokenized asset infrastructure
- AI-powered financial services
- Credit and lending protocols
- *Prediction market infrastructure*
This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space.
Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders.
No real grants. No promotion. No technical support.
So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program.
the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.
If grants go to prediction markets, the bottleneck won't be apps, it'll be oracles and resolution rules. Whoever solves clean, fast settlement wins.
Interesting
Kalshi just got scammed by a fake Indian Chief !
They wanted to sign a deal with a tribe to launch a Kalshi branded prediction market.
but the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.
Kalshi is trying to gain the support of Native American by bribing they with juicy partnerships.
They thought they had struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, Chief of the Quassarte tribe.
Except Wilson Yargee was not the real chief.
the next the actual Chief of the Quassarte denounced the deal saying :
- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.
Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (legit) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.
Now the legality of the deal rests on this succession dispute :
> The legitimist faction behind Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.
> The impostor faction, backed by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.
Kalshi thought they were smart trying to buy the support of tribes before their supreme court case and now they are stuck solving Tribal succession disputes.
Well deserved.
Kalshi was trying to inflate their values before IPO so the billionaires can liquidate their investments.
A single Russian Geran-2 drone is currently maneuvering over Kyiv in a very unusual manner.
It's repeatedly rapidly dropping in altitude down to altitudes of 400 metres in a dive, before immediately pulling up to over 700 metres.
This gem of an article went almost unnoticed. Go read it
frontofficesports.com/articl…
