NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them. We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof. A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media. Here's what they discovered 👇 1. Their calls are trash. Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades. On those exact same bets: - avg. KOL return: +12.3% - avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4% If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity. 1. KOLs are WORST traders than average. > 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading. > 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money. So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha. If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves. If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.

Another Perpdex quant worth following if you are actively trading / farming perpDexes. Seems like @arcus_xyz latency is pretty good, and/or they have servers near Tokyo. I reduced my active trading on Arcus a little bit + more players came in so this week I dropped from #23 to #27 on S1. S0 secured #35. Highly recommend moving or partially moving your trading there and ignore CT farmers FUD. They incentivize real traders vs volume washers which is good. The UX is nice, a lot of great and unique features coming, including: - tokenized stocks/etfs as collateral - free usdc/usdt 1:1 bridge to USDG (nice feature I found out recently) instead of paying 5bps on jumper for usdc to usdg swap from arbitrum for example - *redacted* feature coming for most active traders, which is unique as well You also get additional boost for trading tokenized stocks and if you hold positions outside of US regular trading hours. So do DN or just trade discretionary and enjoy. You can also pair it with LPing on metric, which is gonna be an amazing farm as well. Check my @metricxyz running thread. Ref: app.arcus.xyz/ref/IROH

Good things happen to altcoins here. Whenever the 1M RSI for OTHERS/BTC crosses bullish, it has marked the start of the largest periods of altcoin performance. Altcoins have been in a bear market against Bitcoin since the 2021 top. The run we had in 2023 was a very small bear market rally for OTHERS/BTC. That has now shifted, however. Altcoins are gearing up for only their third true period of outperformance against Bitcoin through the entire Crypto history. You don't really want to be fading it anon.

why haven't permissionless prediction markets worked in the past? because humans write terrible rules, and resolving thousands of niche markets manually is impossible until @xomarket introduced MODRA inside XO 2.0. let’s talk about the real reason prediction markets have been stuck in a bottleneck and how XO Market bridges AI and crypto to create the YouTube of Prediction Markets. in the old model, if you wanted to let random users create betting markets, two things always went wrong: • creators wrote ambiguous rules (Will Token X pump this week?), leading to endless fights when settling. • decentralized human oracles took days to vote on outcomes and were easily manipulated by whales. XO Market led by cofounders Ali Habbabeh and Walid Al Habboul out of Zug, Switzerland solved both problems at the infrastructure level, which is why they have already scaled past $650 million in trading volume across 1,900+ user created markets. here is how the tech and mechanics work under the hood: 1. MODRA: The AI Market Engine when you go to XO to create a Conviction market (which only requires a $10 USDC seed order), you don't write the legalistic resolution rules alone. MODRA, XO’s proprietary AI engine, assists you in real time to turn your raw idea into a strict, verifiable and source backed condition. if a market isn't measurable, it doesn't pass. 2. Hybrid AI + Staked Human Resolution once the event finishes, MODRA verifies the outcome against the pre defined sources and settles the market rapidly. what if there is an edge case or controversy? anyone can challenge it, escalating the dispute to staked human arbiters who have skin in the game. it combines the speed of AI with the security of human consensus. 3. Markets That Can Only Exist on XO because creation costs $10 and resolution is automated by MODRA, XO hosts markets you will never see on Polymarket or Kalshi: • will a specific CT influencer hit 100k followers before Friday? • will a niche DeFi protocol pass its governance vote? • microcultural events, local sports and specific AI model benchmarks. if your niche market gains serious volume, it graduates to XO's main board and you keep earning 20% of all trading fees it generates forevr. 4. Built for Serious Traders Too beyond user created Convictions, XO 2.0 offers: • mainstream Markets with deep liquidity ($1M Liquidity Rewards active) • pulse for 5 minute BTC Up/Down action • parlays for multi leg predictions • 0% Maker fees (plus Maker rebates) and a frictionless Smart Wallet experience using real USDC backed by $6.5M from Coinbase Ventures, Delphi Ventures, cyber Fund, 20VC and Picus Capital, XO has proven that AI isn't just a buzzword in crypto it is the missing link that makes user generated financial markets possible. test out MODRA, trade with zero maker fees, or launch your first market here: s.kaito.ai/12VRX1P

How today's candle close will determine if we get a sell setup on #BTC. No assumptions, just wait for confirmation. Let's see how the market plays out.

Bull market uptrend above 78k I'd start questioning my decisions below that. Until then, patience is a virtue. $BTC (1W)