@0xinternetchild
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Decoding global chaos through prediction markets. From Ukraine fronts to Middle East bets – insider vibes on wars, elections, and tariffs
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Joined December 2024
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Internet Child retweeted
Polymarket international is dying
it's volume crashed by 73% since June !
since it's launch all polymarket's focus has been on the US to the detriment of the OG crypto platform
- 10x the usual liquidity incentives showered at the US app
- massive advertisement campaing aimed at US public
- pivot to sports instead of politics/culture
- constant promotional events showering users with cash bonuses
yet all this favoritism couldn't make Polymarket US volume blow up, it has been stagnant since June.
All it did was transform the OG polymarket app into a ghost town
imagine what could have been done on polymarket international with all this money
- $Poly airdrop
- new resolution system to replace UMA
- permissionless markets
- fix the fck CLOB !
This pivot to Polymarket US and away from crypto will one day be recognized as polymarket's greatest strategic mistake
they threw away all they had built in crypto to chase regulated status in the US, just in time for the Democrats to take back power and ban their business
Polymarket international is dying
it's volume crashed by 73% since June !
since it's launch all polymarket's focus has been on the US to the detriment of the OG crypto platform
- 10x the usual liquidity incentives showered at the US app
- massive advertisement campaing aimed at US public
- pivot to sports instead of politics/culture
- constant promotional events showering users with cash bonuses
yet all this favoritism couldn't make Polymarket US volume blow up, it has been stagnant since June.
All it did was transform the OG polymarket app into a ghost town
imagine what could have been done on polymarket international with all this money
- $Poly airdrop
- new resolution system to replace UMA
- permissionless markets
- fix the fck CLOB !
This pivot to Polymarket US and away from crypto will one day be recognized as polymarket's greatest strategic mistake
they threw away all they had built in crypto to chase regulated status in the US, just in time for the Democrats to take back power and ban their business
Internet Child retweeted
Kalshi finally responsed to the fraud allegations !
they directly address claims by @beniduboss and @OctopusTakopi about wash trading on their platform
here are their main points :
1) cause of the $5500 buys
"the fixed trade sizes are caused by one maker placing exactly $5500 to clear the minimum order size requirement of his Market Making agreement. Takers are all buying his orders which is why half of trades have the exact same size"
The MM agreement point make sense, such agreements exist and MMs are often required to keep orders above a certain fixed minimum size to get rewards.
that still does not explain why takers match that amount every time.
If taker buys for less than $5500 or if the taker order is split among more than one resting it should be a partial fill which which would result in a different trade size.
2) Market Makers fee structure
"self clearing MMs don't pay fees because we declared a Fee Holiday. Their fees are fully rebated but they can't be positive on a trade-per-trade basis"
There Kalshi completely sidesteps the point.
The point that @beniduboss made was that net 0 fees meant MMs paid no penalty for wash trading. Kalshi answers that MMs don't get additional payment for wash trading, which was never the accusation.
3) Prediction market manipulation
"nothing we’ve seen has anything to do with Kalshi’s Predictions platform..."
they have chosen to ignore the finding of @danielsapkota on circular trading in their Prediction Markets
So overall there are one or two interesting points but it's not an exhaustive rebuttal.
and we still don't know why their perps do 60x more volume per $ of liquidity than @HyperliquidX
Make your bets !
Ready. Later this week, I’m publishing an investigation with underlying data across the entire Polymarket ecosystem:
>> Polymarket Perps
>> Polymarket US
>> Polymarket International
Make up your own mind when the data drops, but in total, this runs significantly deeper than what surfaced with Kalshi.
I’m no Kalshi shill. I’ve always preferred Polymarket’s product. But JUSTICE needs to be served.
Over to you, Shayne.
On three things the world stands: on justice, on truth, and on peace.
Internet Child retweeted
this looks like money printer
@quotienthq sells access to high-quality prediction market signals
but they do not handle execution
@zeitfinance provides tokenized vault infra, letting users invest in managed or algorithmic prediction market funds
but zeit has no opinion on which trades to take
so this guy did obvious thing
opened zeitfi vault that trades using quotient signals
quotient track record looks serious
* +11.7% average return per signal
* 1,372 signals
catch is access
you need 10,000,000 $quotient tokens to unlock full signal access
so if you want ticket to make sense, you need to trade with real size
@zktalent got full access and plans to trade quotient signals while scaling through investments into his fund
setup is simple
signal layer from quotient
vault infra from zeit
execution through managed fund
only issue right now
fund is already at max capacity
so everyone is waiting for him to raise investment limit
1/ Launching something new today with @QuotientHQ and the team at @ZEITFinance
Q GeoEdge is a prediction market vault combining my market selection, Quotient’s forecasting intelligence and ZEIT’s vault infrastructure.
What exactly are we up to? 🧵
Internet Child retweeted
at least HALF of Kalshi's perps volume is fake !
@OctopusTakopi found that 51% of Kalshi's perps volume shared a single trade size.
this means that either :
1 ) every trader on Kalshi mysteriously decided to buy and sell ETH only by packs of *exactly* $5500
2 ) someone is running a very dumb wash trading bot that keeps buying and selling the same $5500 worth of ETH back and forth
And this is not only the case for ETH, the same pattern repeats across 17 of their 20 perps pairs
for $BTC the magic size is $2500
for $HYPE it's $2400
for $ZEC it's $10,600
you can see the order size distributions of @binance below for comparison.
that's how natural order size distribution should look like, smooth with no random spike accounting for 59% of volume
Internet Child retweeted
WSJ reveals how Polymarket let credit card fraud rings operate on Polymarket US to boost their numbers
this took place when Polymarket started opening it's US app to the public in February
> Fraudsters discover you can launder stolen credit card money by sending it to Polymarket US and withdrawing on another card
> Launder at least $10M through Polymarket US using thousands of stolen debit cards
> At one peak payment processors were flagging 80%+ of deposits to Polymarket US as fraudulent
> compliance teams notice and escalates the issue to Shayne
> his response : "ignore, keep growing and pay the fine later"
The team even removed safeguards requiring withdrawals to go back to the same payment source, making it easy for the fraudsters
the Chief Compliance Officer resigned in protest after submitting a report on the fraud issues that went unheard
The US CEO was fired and the heads of US regulation + AML also left.
most of Polymarket US early TVL was likely a result of those fraud rings
That's why I only trust polymarket(.)com and @HyperliquidX
If it's not on chain, you can't trust it
WSJ reveals how Polymarket let credit card fraud rings operate on Polymarket US to boost their numbers
this took place when Polymarket started opening it's US app to the public in February
> Fraudsters discover you can launder stolen credit card money by sending it to Polymarket US and withdrawing on another card
> Launder at least $10M through Polymarket US using thousands of stolen debit cards
> At one peak payment processors were flagging 80%+ of deposits to Polymarket US as fraudulent
> compliance teams notice and escalates the issue to Shayne
> his response : "ignore, keep growing and pay the fine later"
The team even removed safeguards requiring withdrawals to go back to the same payment source, making it easy for the fraudsters
the Chief Compliance Officer resigned in protest after submitting a report on the fraud issues that went unheard
The US CEO was fired and the heads of US regulation + AML also left.
most of Polymarket US early TVL was likely a result of those fraud rings
That's why I only trust polymarket(.)com and @HyperliquidX
If it's not on chain, you can't trust it
I always thought @mansourtarek_ reminded me of someone
THREAD : full review of Kalshi's volume fraud evidences
Over the past few days Kalshi has been revealed to fraud their volume numbers.
The evidences are scattered across multiple posts by @beniduboss, @danielsapkota and myself and keep piling up at a rapid pace
To keep track of it all I will review all the current evidences and gather them in this thread
Starting with the most recent finding ⏬
@beniduboss found consistent wash trading pattern in Kalshi's ETH perps.
In the market's trade table, trades sized at $5,500 accounts for:
- 47.20% of notional volume in one sampled window
- 58.46% in sample 2
- 51.55% in sample 3
- 47.77% in sample 4
Thousands of trades at the same arbitrary dollar size of $5500 is NOT natural trading activity.
and the pattern persisting over multiple samples proving it wasn't a passing anomaly.
this is fake volume
Internet Child retweeted
Overheard 30 minutes of unhinged lore in the queue for Mimi’s frozen yogurt in Soho today.
The word on the street is Shayne completely chickened out and handed an ex-dev (Mustafa) an 8-figure bag ransom to save face
Obviously unverified froyo talk (haven't seen the papers, so treat it as a thought experiment), but the timeline is pure cinema:
-- Mustafa is one of the oldest Polymarket employees, young, inexperienced, but had Shayne’s full trust. He spent his time vibecoding small features and teasing a potential airdrop.
-- Once Polymarket started to professionalize, vibecoding wasn't enough, $Poly lost its pull, and he decided to leave. Shayne was totally cool with it.
-- What Shayne didn't know was that Mustafa had secretly been flirting with TradeXYZ, advertising his PM expertise. He was hired so early that there was zero non-compete!!
-- Mustafa starts soft-shilling TradeXYZ with insiders, dropping hints related to HIP-4 in Prediction Arc TG channel.
-- Polymarket drops that glossy commercial featuring superstars like LeBron James. Mustafa immediately posts a direct call-out to Shayne with the Hyperliquid chart, basically saying: you’re buying fancy ads because you failed at product.
-- Shayne apparently agreed. Scrambling mid-fundraise and genuinely terrified of Hyperliquid’s prediction market play, Shayne looked for a resolution, blinked, and settled.
An alleged low-to-mid 8 figures in liquid cash just for a 1-year non-compete.
If the rumors are true:
• Well played Mustafa. "do nothing and win"
• Shayne thinks he sucks at product, got shook by Hyperliquid, and folded
• Congrats guys, your community airdrop just got wired in cash to a bank in Manhattan.
Soho froyo queues remain undefeated.
Internet Child retweeted
THREAD : full review of Kalshi's volume fraud evidences
Over the past few days Kalshi has been revealed to fraud their volume numbers.
The evidences are scattered across multiple posts by @beniduboss, @danielsapkota and myself and keep piling up at a rapid pace
To keep track of it all I will review all the current evidences and gather them in this thread
Starting with the most recent finding ⏬
@beniduboss found consistent wash trading pattern in Kalshi's ETH perps.
In the market's trade table, trades sized at $5,500 accounts for:
- 47.20% of notional volume in one sampled window
- 58.46% in sample 2
- 51.55% in sample 3
- 47.77% in sample 4
Thousands of trades at the same arbitrary dollar size of $5500 is NOT natural trading activity.
and the pattern persisting over multiple samples proving it wasn't a passing anomaly.
this is fake volume
If only there was a way to know they were faking their volume !
We just found how kalshi is faking their volume !
turns out Kalshi in-house market markers pay ZERO (0) fees when trading against themselves
takers fees :
0.003%
makers rebates :
+0.003%
cost of wash trading :
0.003 - 0.003 = 0
Crucially this applies only to "self-clearing makers", a.k.a handpicked Kalshi partners.
Most of these partners have equity deals with Kalshi, meaning they have every incentives to pump up the volume through wash trading before IPO
and since it costs them noting, why not ?
All the retards in my last tweet telling me
"it's because of muh NFL"
no, it's because Kalshi's volume is faker than a $3 bill
Fraud Supercycle
The prediction market civil war just peaked.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi are getting hit with massive leaks simultaneously.
> Total silence from both teams.
• Kalshi: @beniduboss went viral exposing alleged fake volume across their perps markets, sending shockwaves through the community.
• Polymarket: @TheFatMbappe leaked alleged SPAC IPO plans, tighter board control, an internal leadership push against CEO Shayne Coplan, rampant marketing spend, internal toxicity, and alleged tolerance of fraud
>>> Even bigger leaks promised this week!!
Absolute cinema. What’s your bet on how this ends
Internet Child retweeted
We just found how kalshi is faking their volume !
turns out Kalshi in-house market markers pay ZERO (0) fees when trading against themselves
takers fees :
0.003%
makers rebates :
+0.003%
cost of wash trading :
0.003 - 0.003 = 0
Crucially this applies only to "self-clearing makers", a.k.a handpicked Kalshi partners.
Most of these partners have equity deals with Kalshi, meaning they have every incentives to pump up the volume through wash trading before IPO
and since it costs them noting, why not ?
All the retards in my last tweet telling me
"it's because of muh NFL"
no, it's because Kalshi's volume is faker than a $3 bill
Fraud Supercycle
Klashi has to be faking their volume
their just introduced new fees on parlays yet parlay volume went UP at the same time
this is extremely sus
when you increase fees you expect to see volume go DOWN as price sensitive whales get cold feets
Yet for Kalshi we observe the exact opposite
Until August 20th:
- $1.56M avg. daily parlay fees
- $508M avg. daily parlay volume
After August 20th (maker fee introduced):
- $2.8M avg. daily parlay fees (+79%)
- $1.0B avg. daily parlay volume (+97%)
One possible explanation is that Kalshi in-house Market Makers are wash trading using their fee exemption
If you take a look at their market maker agreement you can find the following line :
"The benefits can include monetary benefits, such as discounts on fees, rebates on fees, revenue share from fees, and other monetary benefits."
how hard would it be for internal market makers that pay no fees to wash trade a bunch of volume in exchange for "monetary benefits" ?
It sure would be very useful for a company looking to IPO whose main value metric is volume
remember that next time you see a chart showing Kalshi doing 10x more "volume" than @Polymarket
One is verifiable onchain and the other is not.
Internet Child retweeted
Remeber that when you see charts like these
@Polymarket volume is full auditable on chain, @Kalshi volume not so much
Klashi has to be faking their volume
their just introduced new fees on parlays yet parlay volume went UP at the same time
this is extremely sus
when you increase fees you expect to see volume go DOWN as price sensitive whales get cold feets
Yet for Kalshi we observe the exact opposite
Until August 20th:
- $1.56M avg. daily parlay fees
- $508M avg. daily parlay volume
After August 20th (maker fee introduced):
- $2.8M avg. daily parlay fees (+79%)
- $1.0B avg. daily parlay volume (+97%)
One possible explanation is that Kalshi in-house Market Makers are wash trading using their fee exemption
If you take a look at their market maker agreement you can find the following line :
"The benefits can include monetary benefits, such as discounts on fees, rebates on fees, revenue share from fees, and other monetary benefits."
how hard would it be for internal market makers that pay no fees to wash trade a bunch of volume in exchange for "monetary benefits" ?
It sure would be very useful for a company looking to IPO whose main value metric is volume
remember that next time you see a chart showing Kalshi doing 10x more "volume" than @Polymarket
One is verifiable onchain and the other is not.
Remeber that when you see charts like these
@Polymarket volume is full auditable on chain, @Kalshi volume not so much
Klashi has to be faking their volume
their just introduced new fees on parlays yet parlay volume went UP at the same time
this is extremely sus
when you increase fees you expect to see volume go DOWN as price sensitive whales get cold feets
Yet for Kalshi we observe the exact opposite
Until August 20th:
- $1.56M avg. daily parlay fees
- $508M avg. daily parlay volume
After August 20th (maker fee introduced):
- $2.8M avg. daily parlay fees (+79%)
- $1.0B avg. daily parlay volume (+97%)
One possible explanation is that Kalshi in-house Market Makers are wash trading using their fee exemption
If you take a look at their market maker agreement you can find the following line :
"The benefits can include monetary benefits, such as discounts on fees, rebates on fees, revenue share from fees, and other monetary benefits."
how hard would it be for internal market makers that pay no fees to wash trade a bunch of volume in exchange for "monetary benefits" ?
It sure would be very useful for a company looking to IPO whose main value metric is volume
remember that next time you see a chart showing Kalshi doing 10x more "volume" than @Polymarket
One is verifiable onchain and the other is not.
Internet Child retweeted
Klashi has to be faking their volume
their just introduced new fees on parlays yet parlay volume went UP at the same time
this is extremely sus
when you increase fees you expect to see volume go DOWN as price sensitive whales get cold feets
Yet for Kalshi we observe the exact opposite
Until August 20th:
- $1.56M avg. daily parlay fees
- $508M avg. daily parlay volume
After August 20th (maker fee introduced):
- $2.8M avg. daily parlay fees (+79%)
- $1.0B avg. daily parlay volume (+97%)
One possible explanation is that Kalshi in-house Market Makers are wash trading using their fee exemption
If you take a look at their market maker agreement you can find the following line :
"The benefits can include monetary benefits, such as discounts on fees, rebates on fees, revenue share from fees, and other monetary benefits."
how hard would it be for internal market makers that pay no fees to wash trade a bunch of volume in exchange for "monetary benefits" ?
It sure would be very useful for a company looking to IPO whose main value metric is volume
remember that next time you see a chart showing Kalshi doing 10x more "volume" than @Polymarket
One is verifiable onchain and the other is not.