Mark Mac retweeted
Five ways to use Covenants as a layer on top of prediction markets:
(1) Events fire bets. CPI comes in above forecast and your YES on a Fed hike in October fires. Same for an exit on a position you hold, or a bet that waits for two events
(2) Odds fire bets. The market on LeBron playing Game 7 resolves NO and your YES on the Celtics winning the series fires. Same for a stop loss on your bet, a bet that fires when a correlated market’s odds cross a level, or an arb between Polymarket and Kalshi
(3) Odds fire trades. The market on a 2026 recession crosses 40% and your ETH short opens. The same market resolves NO and the short closes
(4) Resolutions fire payouts. The market on a hurricane hitting Florida resolves YES and the insurance pays out, no claims desk. Bounties, escrow, refunds and DAO buybacks work the same way
(5) Agents run all of it. An agent seals fifty of these across five venues and goes offline. They still fire
Every one sits sealed off venue till it fires, so nobody can read it or copy it
Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots
London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything
You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it
With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line
Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh
Mark Mac retweeted
Private transactions ≠ private trading strategies.
Onchain markets have 3 layers: transaction, execution and intelligence.
Even if a transaction is private, your stop losses and limit orders can still reveal your next move.
Nillion's Covenants keep them encrypted.
All five of these sit in front of existing venues like Polymarket and Kalshi. There’s another category where a venue builds Covenants into how its own markets resolve. Gonna post about that one later this week
Five ways to use Covenants as a layer on top of prediction markets:
(1) Events fire bets. CPI comes in above forecast and your YES on a Fed hike in October fires. Same for an exit on a position you hold, or a bet that waits for two events
(2) Odds fire bets. The market on LeBron playing Game 7 resolves NO and your YES on the Celtics winning the series fires. Same for a stop loss on your bet, a bet that fires when a correlated market’s odds cross a level, or an arb between Polymarket and Kalshi
(3) Odds fire trades. The market on a 2026 recession crosses 40% and your ETH short opens. The same market resolves NO and the short closes
(4) Resolutions fire payouts. The market on a hurricane hitting Florida resolves YES and the insurance pays out, no claims desk. Bounties, escrow, refunds and DAO buybacks work the same way
(5) Agents run all of it. An agent seals fifty of these across five venues and goes offline. They still fire
Every one sits sealed off venue till it fires, so nobody can read it or copy it
Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots
London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything
You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it
With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line
Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh
Mark Mac retweeted
Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots
London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything
You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it
With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line
Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh
The bots are fast, so on headline markets I think Covenants levels the playing field for retail, which is huge when the bots have had those markets to themselves for so long
But they don’t play the smaller markets because the low volume isn’t worth their running costs. That’s where retail’s edge will be strongest imo
Starts here xitter.cf/thatmarkmac/status/211…
Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots
London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything
You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it
With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line
Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh
Mark Mac retweeted
Used the weekend to build out the protection side of Latch and based on the feedbacks I got from the team and community
You can now set an automatic stablecoin exit: “Exchange my USDT for USDC if USDT falls below $0.99, but only if I receive at least the amount I choose.”
Paid depeg cover is here too.
Choose a provider, request private terms and review the payout, premium and protection period before paying.
The provider reserves the full payout upfront and activates the policy. If the agreed condition qualifies, the payout can happen automatically.
Providers now have a workspace to manage capital, reply to requests, activate policies and track payouts. Sentinel lets them review exposure and pause new purchases while keeping existing commitments protected.
I also added a one-time email alert for sealing availability. Turn it on, confirm your email, and Latch will notify you when the required three-node committee can be formed. After sending, the alert turns itself off (love this one a lot, helped a couple of times to know when nodes are up more than 3 😄)
The trading agent, chat and MCP tools remain part of the app.
Built with @nillionnetwork Covenants. Available on Sepolia with test assets fully available on the platform to test.
Try it: latch.femdev.site
Feedback welcome, especially on the cover and exit flows.
I wasn’t done cooking. Two ideas from Nillion’s wishlist, one app 👨🍳
Meet Latch
A trading agent that can go offline while your sealed instructions keep working, plus cover that pays automatically if USDT loses its peg.
Trading
“Buy WETH if BTC reaches $90k.”
“Take profit at $4k, or stop loss at $2.5k.”
Describe your plan in chat, review it and approve through your wallet. Your conditions stay sealed until release. Paired exits share one allocation: when one sale succeeds, the other closes.
Depeg cover
“If USDT falls to $0.98 or below, pay this wallet 10 USDC.”
A provider reserves the payout upfront. The beneficiary accepts the terms. Once activated, the sealed condition can trigger payment automatically, no claim form or waiting for someone to approve your payout.
MCP lets compatible AI assistants like Claude, chat-gpt, cursor, codex etc prepare plans, check funding and explain their status. Your wallet authorizes activation; receipts show the outcome.
Built with @nillion Covenants
Live on Sepolia with test assets.
Try it: latch.femdev.site
Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots
London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything
You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it
With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line
Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh
Mark Mac retweeted
few understand how widely applicable covenants can be -- when they said encrypted markets, they mean every market -- perps, yield, PMs and more -- the TAM is fucking massive
ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47
Mark Mac retweeted
This is wild. It fired!
19:56 UTC, minutes after I posted. All 250 ZEC sold at $1,049, 53k loss locked in. ZEC printed $1,048.40 for one minute and two hours later it’s $1,100
Brutal. This guy did the responsible thing, set a stop to protect himself, and the venue put it on display for anyone to aim at. 53k gone, and ZEC ripped straight back up without those 250 coins
This needs fixing. With Covenants nobody knows where your line is
Oh damn, found another one. ZEC this time
Someone’s long 625 ZEC at 10x from $1,264, with a public stop loss on 250 ZEC at $1,050. ZEC’s at $1,057 as I type, so that’s under 1% from his line. A Sunday arvo job for a desk with size
Wick it there, his stop dumps 262.5k into the dip and locks in a 53k loss, then price bounces without him. Liq is at $928. His ETH, XRP and NEAR stops are all public too. Whole playbook, free to anyone with the address. Hunters gonna hunt
With Covenants the stop stays sealed until $1,050 actually prints. Nobody can read it while it waits
