Five ways to use Covenants as a layer on top of prediction markets: (1) Events fire bets. CPI comes in above forecast and your YES on a Fed hike in October fires. Same for an exit on a position you hold, or a bet that waits for two events (2) Odds fire bets. The market on LeBron playing Game 7 resolves NO and your YES on the Celtics winning the series fires. Same for a stop loss on your bet, a bet that fires when a correlated market’s odds cross a level, or an arb between Polymarket and Kalshi (3) Odds fire trades. The market on a 2026 recession crosses 40% and your ETH short opens. The same market resolves NO and the short closes (4) Resolutions fire payouts. The market on a hurricane hitting Florida resolves YES and the insurance pays out, no claims desk. Bounties, escrow, refunds and DAO buybacks work the same way (5) Agents run all of it. An agent seals fifty of these across five venues and goes offline. They still fire Every one sits sealed off venue till it fires, so nobody can read it or copy it

Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh

This is wild. It fired! 19:56 UTC, minutes after I posted. All 250 ZEC sold at $1,049, 53k loss locked in. ZEC printed $1,048.40 for one minute and two hours later it’s $1,100 Brutal. This guy did the responsible thing, set a stop to protect himself, and the venue put it on display for anyone to aim at. 53k gone, and ZEC ripped straight back up without those 250 coins This needs fixing. With Covenants nobody knows where your line is

PUMP's the only big alt green on Hyperliquid today so I went looking at who's long it and how One account is long 249m PUMP, $1,087,000 at 3x, in from 0.005265. Price is 0.004363, so he's already down $225,000. And sitting under it, in public, a stop on the whole position at 0.003949. That's 9.5% below price. PUMP has moved 12 to 23% in a day three times this week, so pushing it there is not a big ask for anyone with size If it fires, the stop sells all 249m PUMP into the dip and he's locked in a $328,000 loss. His stop allows fills down to 0.003554, so a hard wick can fill him lower and the loss runs to $426,000. He put up about $510,000 for this trade, so that leaves him $84,000. Then price bounces back, he has no position left, and he watches the coin he just got kicked out of go green Market makers and big accounts do this for a living. Thin weekend book, a stop everyone can see. They sell PUMP down until 0.003949 prints, his stop dumps $984,000 at market, they buy it off him at the low and let price drift back up. His $328,000 loss is their profit. It's a perp venue, so the price that fires his stop is the perp price, not spot, and perp prices wick far harder. On Binance or Bybit a stop can fire off that one exchange's last trade, so one wick on one book is all it takes Finding this took zero skill. Hyperliquid's public API returns every open order and position for any address, trigger price included. The screenshot is the raw response for his wallet, and his liquidation price at 0.003388 is sitting right there too. A desk doesn't even do this by hand. A script polls the API, maps every stop loss on the book, and ranks them by how cheap they are to hit. He's basically a row in a spreadsheet A stop loss is the one order you can't afford to show, and the venue shows it to everyone. With Covenants the same stop sits sealed until 0.003949 actually prints, then fires on its own. Nobody can read the level while it waits The quoted post shows one that already happened. A ZEC stop at $773.94, taken to the exact tick, then reversed. ZEC is $1,158 today

Was literally saying today that depeg cover deserves its own use case, turns out @DefiPreacherr had already shipped it in Latch Onchain cover today means filing a claim, then sitting through a cool-down and a vote before anyone decides if you get paid. Nexus Mutual runs 14 days, and UST holders waited weeks. Here the provider locks the payout upfront, the terms sit sealed in a covenant, and it fires on its own the moment the stablecoin loses its peg. No claim, no vote, and nobody can read the policy until it pays. For the treasuries, funds and market makers that buy this stuff, that's a big deal Latch is also the first trading agent built on Covenants. You describe the plan in chat with Claude, ChatGPT or whatever assistant you use, approve it from your wallet, and the agent can go offline while the network watches the price. Its entries, stops and take profits stay sealed until they fire, so nobody can read what the agent is waiting for and trade against it If I had to pick one to take all the way, it’d probably be the depeg cover. Get real underwriters behind it on mainnet and that's a product those buyers would pay for imo. Curious to know what others think