Been looking at who actually makes money on Polymarket when big news drops. About 3% of accounts, and most of them are bots London Business School and Yale went through 1.72m Polymarket accounts. The ones making money buy the right side of the market in the first few minutes after the news, before the odds catch up. To do that you need a VPS, the CLOB API, a websocket feed, a private key on the box and someone awake at 4am to restart it when it crashes. Which is why it's 3% and not 30%. The study looked at Fed announcements, but it's the same on a CPI print, a court ruling, an ETF approval, anything You can't beat them by hand on the headline markets. And the long tail, the 1,700+ markets under 1m of volume that reprice slower after news because no bot is watching them, is too many for a human to watch either. That's the one place a normal account can win, and nobody's set up to take it With Covenants you write the trade before the news. Buy YES on a Fed hike if CPI comes in hot, buy NO on a December cut if payrolls come in 100,000 above forecast. Both sit sealed, nobody can read them, and they fire on their own, no server needed. On the headline markets your order goes in the same second as the bots. On the small markets the bots aren't even there, so if you have alpha on one, you're first in line Gonna spend this week going through everything a prediction market can trigger. A lot more than I expected tbh

Oh damn, found another one. ZEC this time Someone’s long 625 ZEC at 10x from $1,264, with a public stop loss on 250 ZEC at $1,050. ZEC’s at $1,057 as I type, so that’s under 1% from his line. A Sunday arvo job for a desk with size Wick it there, his stop dumps 262.5k into the dip and locks in a 53k loss, then price bounces without him. Liq is at $928. His ETH, XRP and NEAR stops are all public too. Whole playbook, free to anyone with the address. Hunters gonna hunt With Covenants the stop stays sealed until $1,050 actually prints. Nobody can read it while it waits

PUMP's the only big alt green on Hyperliquid today so I went looking at who's long it and how One account is long 249m PUMP, $1,087,000 at 3x, in from 0.005265. Price is 0.004363, so he's already down $225,000. And sitting under it, in public, a stop on the whole position at 0.003949. That's 9.5% below price. PUMP has moved 12 to 23% in a day three times this week, so pushing it there is not a big ask for anyone with size If it fires, the stop sells all 249m PUMP into the dip and he's locked in a $328,000 loss. His stop allows fills down to 0.003554, so a hard wick can fill him lower and the loss runs to $426,000. He put up about $510,000 for this trade, so that leaves him $84,000. Then price bounces back, he has no position left, and he watches the coin he just got kicked out of go green Market makers and big accounts do this for a living. Thin weekend book, a stop everyone can see. They sell PUMP down until 0.003949 prints, his stop dumps $984,000 at market, they buy it off him at the low and let price drift back up. His $328,000 loss is their profit. It's a perp venue, so the price that fires his stop is the perp price, not spot, and perp prices wick far harder. On Binance or Bybit a stop can fire off that one exchange's last trade, so one wick on one book is all it takes Finding this took zero skill. Hyperliquid's public API returns every open order and position for any address, trigger price included. The screenshot is the raw response for his wallet, and his liquidation price at 0.003388 is sitting right there too. A desk doesn't even do this by hand. A script polls the API, maps every stop loss on the book, and ranks them by how cheap they are to hit. He's basically a row in a spreadsheet A stop loss is the one order you can't afford to show, and the venue shows it to everyone. With Covenants the same stop sits sealed until 0.003949 actually prints, then fires on its own. Nobody can read the level while it waits The quoted post shows one that already happened. A ZEC stop at $773.94, taken to the exact tick, then reversed. ZEC is $1,158 today

Last night I pulled 600 Hyperliquid wallets at random. 182 were running a live position, and 36 of those had a stop loss or a take profit resting with the trigger price coming back in plain text from a public API call Here's what that costs. On 22 Aug someone was long 104 ZEC with a stop at 773.94. It sat readable for four hours. Price came down, took every coin at exactly 773.94, and reversed A day later ZEC was 812. A week later 805. It's 1,461 now Same position today would be worth $72,000 more if they stayed in. But the one number that could take them out was published The app below is the first of its kind where that number stays sealed until it fires