Rare Special Item Trade-ups - The Great Reset This will be a rather long text in which I ramble about the update, so buckle in: Todays update has seen the most severe changes the skin ecosystem had to endure since the introduction of Tradelock in 2018. People got a harsh reality check why skins are considered a high-risk asset. For too long, it was considered an infinite moneyglitch with no downsides. For those unaware, Valve has introduced a trade-up feature for rare special items (Gloves/Knives) by using 5 skins of the covert rarity grade. At the same time, Valve has also adjusted the way trade-ups work in general, factoring in the floatcaps of not only the potential outcome but also the inputs. @BrongoCS has made a great summary of the changes if you wanna read up on them further. [Sooo… what now?] The obvious impact of this is that the price of Coverts will go up and the price of Knives and Gloves will go down. Pretty obvious. However, all other case weapon skins will follow the Coverts simultaneously, creating an overall boost in prices and Case ROI. Hightier knives, especially non-gems, are in a terrible spot and I honestly wouldnt be surprised to see -80% crashes. The same goes for expensive FN Gloves, eventho the new tradeup formula might protect them slightly. Overall, the spread between Coverts and Knives/Gloves overall, as well as the spread between cheap and expensive Knives/Gloves will decrease significantly. [Why did Valve do this?] While I can only speculate on this topic, to me, the only logical explanation is that they want more items back on the Steam Community Market. As the $2,000 limit is a legal threshold in the US which they can not increase, bringing down skin prices is the only other treatment. This is in line with recent updates such as the Trade Protection (which does not affect items purchased on the SCM) and like the Genesis Uplink Terminal, which focuses much more on buying skins directly with Steam wallet funds. I dont think theres any legal or regulatory background to this, as trade-ups are just as much like gambling as cases. In my opinion, the benefits for Valve will be greater control over the ecosystem, the ability to collect more fees, and a wider variety of skins for users to choose from . [Are skins dead? Is trading over?] No. While today has seen significant financial losses across all big traders in the market - me included - I view it as some kind of cleansing. Ever since the introduction of tradelock 7ish years ago, we have been in more or less an up-only economy, which had its peak in multiple rounds of price manipulation, most noticeably showcased in the recent surge in price amongst cheaper gloves and playskins. People forgot risk exists, made huge deals on tiny margins, speculated more and more and thought they would end up with generational wealth. Todays prices reflect a much healthier skin market, where actual players can afford most items and do not have to spend multiple monthly salaries on a slightly more vibrant knife. Although chaos, panic and uncertainty will dominate the coming weeks, this could be another 2018 moment, which could be followed by years of organic growth resulting in a more healthy and stable market, something we have not experienced for multiple years. Thanks for reading.