📰🧵🇦🇷 ALL OF THIS HAPPENED IN @jmilei_english's ARGENTINA IN THE LAST WEEK! 1️⃣ COUNTRY RISK BELOW 500bps, ECUADOR'S DEBT RETURN AND CÓRDOBA'S TIGHTER SPREAD DRIVE OPTIMISM As dollar-bonds rallied during the first half of the week, Argentina's JPMorgan EMBI spread dropped below 500 basis points this week — its lowest since 2018. The index peaked above 4,000 bps under @alferdez; @JMilei inherited 1,940 bps at inauguration. Despite the milestone, sources told us @BloombergLinea the government has no near-term plans to tap international markets. 🌎 Ecuador sets the benchmark: The Andean nation's return to global debt markets this week — its first since 2019 — is fueling optimism. Ecuador placed US$4 billion at 8.75% (2034) and 9.25% (2039), well below expectations, with its spread now at 436 bps. @MattigFran (@one618) said this a key comparison: "A serial defaulter like Argentina. That it placed US$4 billion at such low rates is remarkable." He estimates Argentina could issue at ~9.60% if spreads hold. Analyst @pei555 (@pportfolio) says the government faces a trade-off: keep accumulating reserves and wait for spreads to tighten further, or "lock it in" now. "We said Argentina would look to tap markets between 400 and 450 bps". 🏦 Barclays bullish: The British bank is now "tactically constructive" on Argentina, recommending the 2038 global bond (GD38) as its top pick. Key drivers cited: -BCRA reserve accumulation running at ~US$14 billion annualized pace -Trade surplus widening on a monthly basis since mid-2025 at ~US$18 billion annualized (2.5% of GDP) -An energy surplus that hit US$8 billion in 2025. Risks flagged: stagnant real wages, low investment, and a fragile domestic equilibrium. But Barclays says markets are focused on reserve accumulation, not real exchange rate levels. JP Morgan and Bank of America echo the bullish tone — both see attractive carry opportunities and room for further yield compression. 🏛️ Provinces aren't waiting: Córdoba placed US$800 million in 9-year NY-law bonds at 8.6% coupon — down from its June 2025 debut at 9.75%. Notably, US$308 million came from domestic investors. Entre Ríos governor Rogelio Frigerio is in the U.S. this week meeting BlackRock, PIMCO, Brevan Howard, and Schroders ahead of a potential issuance. The bottom line: With Ecuador back in markets, provinces locking in tighter spreads, and Wall Street turning bullish, pressure mounts on Argentina to capitalize on the window. Analysts see 400 bps as the next target — and a sovereign issuance before the 2027 elections as optimal timing.