Senior Data Journalist @focaldataHQ. Also on 🦋. (he/him) 🏳️‍🌈 [email protected]

Joined April 2020
Patrick Flynn retweeted
New post: We have exclusive new polling from @focaldataHQ - looking at how views of AI are developing and how it's affecting voting. They look at why the US debate is so much more polarised by party than here - and whether we could go the same way. samf.substack.com/p/ai-as-th…
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
Only 1 in 4 people still trust fact-checkers to be neutral. Ten years of fact-checks, labels and warnings - and the problem is bigger than ever.
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
Firstly, let's look at how views change with age. Men's views are U-shaped: the youngest and oldest men are the most positive, dipping in middle age. Meanwhile women's views vary little by age group. There is only a slight upwards slope in positivty from 18 to 75. / 1
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
At @AnthropyUK this week with the @focaldataHQ team. If you're around and want to grab a coffee, do reach out.
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
🚨 UPDATE: We've just released our white paper, which also comes with an interactive dashboard where you can explore every country's position over time. Check it out for yourself at focaldata.com/new-geopolitic… Download the white paper: focaldata.com/blog/mapping-t…
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
Good news for election nerds & relatives of election nerds - our publishers have confirmed "The British General Election of 2024" will be published on 3rd December. To celebrate its imminent arrival, I am starting a "BGE 2024 advent calendar" thread - 1st door opens in next post!
Looking forward to a much briefed bumper hamper of politics? No, not the Budget, The British General Election of 2024! We had an all star launch event in London last night, with reps of all five Britain-wide parties, and now I have a special launch gift for you...read on! 1/?
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
Don’t normally rise to this stuff but it drives me mad. What do we think is more likely? A) mainstream pollsters whose reputation depends on getting the right result are deliberately excluding Labour voters B) There is no shortage of highly engaged left leaning grads on panels so of course you’re less likely to be selected for a VI poll.
Replying to @LukeTryl
I’ve been doing polls for YouGov and Survation for years now. I have even had the free £50 twice lol! Nobody has asked me about who my vote is going to or what I think about Starmer. They know where I live and who I voted for in t he GE. So odd that 🤨
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
Eyes on this please. newstatesman.com/politics/po…
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Throston (Hartlepool) council election result: REF: 58.3% (+47.4) LAB: 31.8% (-18.4) CON: 9.9% (+9.9) Reform GAIN from Labour. No Ind (-38.9) as prev. newstatesman.com/politics/uk…
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Some reflections for UK audience on the Canadian election. 1/ Canada's election is a close analogy of our 2017 General Election. Massive 2-party consolidation, with the collapse of the Greens, populist right, and the nationalists taking a hit. Massive surge for centre left
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Boring academic version: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… Fun, Substack version including how a 1999 Backstreet Boys album helps explain the electoral appeal of Nigel Farage 😎: open.substack.com/pub/jamesb…
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
How toxic is Trump in Canada? Well, this toxic ... Read our team-up with @focaldataHQ on the 🇨🇦 election and the Trump effect👇 politico.com/news/2025/04/26…
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
After the AfD's surge on Sunday, far right parties are the most voted-for of any grouping in Europe, for the first time in history: economist.com/graphic-detail…
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How accurate is ChatGPT as a political focus group? @Dominic2306 recently talked about 'synthetic focus groups' where LLMs simulate and generate responses as if a cross-section of public. I tried it and it works really well!!! 👇Link & results🧵 #MarketResearch #ElectricTwin
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
Am like a broken record on this, but every conversation with the public shows there is no more slack when it comes to trust in politics. It’s not the usual grumbles, but a sense the whole system is rigged, and the consequence is that people are turning away from the mainstream.
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Since the assisted dying bill was announced, I've been keeping a close eye on MP views I've found 207 supportive and 141 opposed... but there are still 291 we don't know about (N.B. Can't share full spreadsheet due to anon declarations. Total excludes Sinn Fein and Speakers.)
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Patrick Flynn retweeted
This is the pattern around the world. Incumbency = defeat.
🇯🇵 Dominant LDP loses majority 🇬🇧Tories have worst ever result 🇿🇦ANC loses majority for first time since 1994 elex 🇮🇳BJP loses majority in shock result 🇪🇺Governing parties hammered in EP elex 2024 is the year for punishing incumbents; makes it a wonder Harris even running close
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Early, but she is outperforming the partisan margin here. Getting some GOP and INDs.
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Short thread on polling from @focaldataHQ about the #USElection2024. We’ve been conducting polling all year and our final swing state polls suggest a narrow Harris victory (276-262) with potential to be larger given last minute movements in North Carolina
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