Senior Data Journalist @focaldataHQ. Also on 🦋. (he/him) 🏳️🌈 [email protected]
Joined April 2020
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Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been.
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
Patrick Flynn retweeted
New post:
We have exclusive new polling from @focaldataHQ - looking at how views of AI are developing and how it's affecting voting.
They look at why the US debate is so much more polarised by party than here - and whether we could go the same way.
samf.substack.com/p/ai-as-th…
Model has predicted it for 2 hours but I've seen enough: Bolsonaro will win 47-45. See you in 2 weeks.
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 19:30 BRT, 81.5% counted
Lula 44.9% (95% CI: 44.6-45.2)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.2% (46.9-47.5)
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro drops below 50% with 70m in.
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 19:07 BRT, 61.0% counted
Lula 44.7% (95% CI: 44.1-45.4)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.4% (46.7-48.0)
Runoff: >99% chance
Bolsonaro 1st: >99%
Count so far: Lula 42.0%, Flávio 49.8%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
Nearly half of votes counted.
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 18:47 BRT, 46.7% counted
Lula 44.6% (95% CI: 43.8-45.5)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.4% (46.5-48.3)
Runoff: >99% chance
Bolsonaro 1st: >99%
Count so far: Lula 41.5%, Flávio 50.3%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
For those speculating, Bolsonaro is not going to win this outright tonight. He will dip below 50% in the next hour.
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 18:51 BRT, 50.5% counted
Lula 44.6% (95% CI: 43.8-45.5)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.4% (46.6-48.2)
Runoff: >99% chance
Bolsonaro 1st: >99%
Count so far: Lula 41.5%, Flávio 50.2%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 18:12 BRT, 14.9% counted
Lula 44.5% (95% CI: 43.1-46.0)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.5% (46.0-48.9)
Runoff: >99% chance
Bolsonaro 1st: 97%
Count so far: Lula 40.6%, Flávio 51.2%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
Results coming in fast now.
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 18:18 BRT, 19.3% counted
Lula 44.4% (95% CI: 43.1-45.7)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.6% (46.3-48.9)
Runoff: >99% chance
Bolsonaro 1st: 99%
Count so far: Lula 40.7%, Flávio 51.2%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
My model makes it almost certain Bolsonaro wins round 1 now.
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 18:21 BRT, 22.8% counted
Lula 44.5% (95% CI: 43.3-45.7)
Bolsonaro 47.5% (46.2-48.8)
Runoff: >99% chance
Bolsonaro 1st: >99%
Count so far: Lula 41.0%, Flávio 50.9%
#Eleições2026
Runoff almost certain, where Bolsonaro will be heavy favourite.
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 12.6% counted
Lula 44.5% (95% CI: 43.1-46.1)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.5% (45.9-48.9)
Runoff: >99% chance
Bolsonaro 1st: 97%
Count so far: Lula 40.8%, Flávio 51.1%
Bolsonaro now 97% chance of winning R1.
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 17:57 BRT, 10.5% counted
Lula 44.6% (95% CI: 43.0-46.2)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.4% (45.8-49.0)
Runoff: 100% chance
Lula 1st: 3%
Count so far: Lula 40.7%, Flávio 51.0%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro increasingly likely to win round 1 now
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 17:51 BRT, 8.0% counted
Lula 44.8% (95% CI: 43.1-46.5)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.3% (45.5-49.0)
Runoff: >99% chance
Lula 1st: 8%
Count so far: Lula 40.8%, Flávio 50.8%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
As we await results, this is what we can expect tonight. Large margins of error given Brazil's patchy polling history.
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round - pre-count polling prior
Lula 45% (95% CI: 35-55)
Flávio Bolsonaro 44% (35-54)
Runoff: 70% chance
Lula 1st: 54%
#Eleições2026
Bolsonaro favoured to win round 1.
🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 17:30 BRT, 2.0% counted
Lula 45.3% (95% CI: 42.6-47.8)
Flávio Bolsonaro 46.6% (44.0-49.3)
Runoff: 100% chance
Lula 1st: 31%
Count so far: Lula 42.5%, Flávio 49.0%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
