Economist covering repo, Treasuries, money markets: markets that work quietly but fail loudly. Views my own.

Washington, DC
Joined October 2014
2026 Nobel Edebiyat Ödülü’nü kazanan Anne Carson’ın Nobel Komitesi’yle yaptığı telefon görüşmesi: “Reykjavik’teki evimde çay içip London Review of Books okuyordum. Yerleri süpürmeye kalktığımda telefonlar çalmaya başladı. Hepsini kapattım. Eşim zorla geri arattı. Eşim “Aç şu telefonu artık. Belki de Nobel’dir” dedi.” Şu anda nasıl hissediyorsunuz? — Sadece kraker yiyip çay içiyorum. Pek dramatik bir durum yok. Nobel’i bekliyor muydunuz? — Tanrı aşkına, tabii ki beklemiyordum. Bence hepiniz çıldırmışsınız. Nobel sizin için ne anlama geliyor? — Hiç düşünmedim. Sadece parayı nasıl bağışlayacağımızı düşünüyoruz. Evi olmayan bir arkadaşımız var. Bir de Sınır Tanımayan Doktorlar’a bağış yapıyoruz. Nasıl kutlayacaksınız? — Telefonlara cevap vermek zorunda kalmamak için ormanda yürüyüşe çıkacağız. Sonra sessizliği dinleyeceğiz. Yazarlığınızı nasıl tanımlarsınız? — İstemsizce. Hep başka bir şey yapmaya çalışırken oluyor. Kitaplarınızı okumaya nereden başlamalı? — Herhangi bir yerden. Ben hep ortadan başlayın derim. Yeni bir kitaba nasıl başlarsınız? — Ortadan. Tek kuralım bu. İlham kaynağınız? — Homeros. Antik hikâyelerin bugün hâlâ geçerli olmasının nedeni ne? — Geçerli değiller. Onların bizim için geçerli olmasıyla ilgilenmiyorum. Bizim onlara layık olmamızla ilgileniyorum. Sıkılmaktan kaçınmak neden önemli? — Kim sıkılmayı sever ki? Uyumak mı, Homeros okumak mı? Günün geri kalanında ne yapacağıma böyle karar veriyorum. Hayat sıkıcı. Genç yazarlara tavsiyeniz? — Ortadan başlayın.
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In today's post, the authors show that trading in U.S. Treasury securities is becoming more concentrated around the designated pricing, or “strike,” times for fixed-income indexes. The concentration is especially pronounced on month-end trading days. nyfed.org/4cWqSfH
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Jay Kahn retweeted
Good stuff from @jstatistic. first public piece on this topic afaik. A bit surprising, as the basis/swap trade has gotten a ton of attention by now. Might meander a little, but the structural implications are worth tracing out.
Net repo borrowing by hedge funds has hit 1.8T, much of it associated with the basis trade. This has drawn attention for financial stability reasons. But has this expansion in hedge fund Treasury trades affected monetary policy implementation? New note w/ Matt McCormick.
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If your take is that what distinguishes your group from others is that your group is better, that should trigger some self reflection.
Tyler Cowen in his new book on why economists write about topics outside their area of expertise: “The dirty little secret is that what distinguishes economics as a field, right now, is a mix of higher standards, harder work, better math, and higher IQs.” This is clearly true.
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No one really knows how big the U.S. repo market is. Or rather, no one 𝑑𝑖𝑑. We combed through the appendixes to a decade of annual reports for over 150 dealers and banks to get the full picture. The total? $12 trillion, almost doubling previous estimates.
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Why is it hard to pin down the "right" size for a central bank's balance sheet? Our note breaks down the tradeoffs involved. 👇
Our latest FEDS Note offers a new lens for focusing on the tradeoffs involved in setting the size of central bank balance sheets: The central bank balance-sheet trilemma
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The Federal Reserve has to grapple with the question of how big its balance sheet should be after it stopped shrinking its $6.5 trillion portfolio, according to economists at the central bank bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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A new #FEDSNote discusses the tradeoffs involved in the size and dynamics of central bank balance sheets: federalreserve.gov/econres/n… #EconTwitter
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My kind of click bait!
Our latest FEDS Note offers a new lens for focusing on the tradeoffs involved in setting the size of central bank balance sheets: The central bank balance-sheet trilemma
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John Leahy was a remarkable economist – one of the best in the world. I was honored to call him a friend for many years and had been looking forward to welcoming him to the Chicago FED next month as the director of research. May he rest in peace.
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Excited to share my latest paper: “Providing safety in a rush: How did shadow banks respond to a $1 trillion shock?” (with Stefan Gissler and Marco Macchiavelli) Just out in the Journal of Financial Intermediation. We dive into how government money market funds (MMFs) handle massive inflows during crises! 1/n
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TLDR: fact check your hot takes on repo with @jstatistic before posting!
Repo volumes have climbed sharply. But some of the posts about it are getting a little carried away! Primary dealer data--one of the few long-running sources--shows activity is high in $, but not above pre-crisis levels when scaled by GDP. h/t @aRishisays
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What if I told you that the original central bank had a repo facility, did OMOs, had RTGS, but only had ledger money (no physical currency)? What if I also told you this ledger money was widely used in Europe? Great show on the Bank of Amsterdam!
In case you missed it Will Roberds lays out for @DavidBeckworth how the Bank of Amsterdam was the first modern bank.
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Highly levered hedge funds play an important role as intermediaries in Treasury markets nowadays, absorbing 37% of issuance, much more important than we thought. Great forensic finance work by @jstatistic and co-authors. and excellent write-up by @RobinWigg
👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀 on.ft.com/3WeX9G7
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🇺🇸 Fed note showing that foreign holdings of US Treasuries by Hedge Funds in the Cayman Islands are massively under-reported, largely driven by the basis trade. This means that TIC data are wrong, but also national accounts overstating households holdings as a result.
In a new note, we demonstrate that the massive buildup in hedge fund Treasury positions in the past decade has had substantial effects on the national accounts data. This is due to underreporting to TIC of Cayman Islands Treasury holdings associated with these hedge funds.
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"TIC data appear to severely undercount Cayman-domiciled hedge funds' holdings of U.S. Treasuries by around $1.4 trillion as of the end of 2024...underreporting of Cayman Islands Treasury holdings in TIC is likely a result of collateral transfers" federalreserve.gov/econres/n…
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Recent rule amendments initiated a large migration of dealer-to-client Treasury repo trades to central clearing. In today's post, the authors highlight results from recent research summarizing institutional details of this service, its costs & benefits. nyfed.org/4nHsa1B
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