@jonwelsh3

Climate researcher and agricultural economist. NSW.

 Oban, New South Wales
agecon.com.au/
Joined March 2014
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51Media
When the MAGAs finally figure out what it was they really voted for:
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Replying to @julia_zemiro
Bluesky is a good alternative app
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Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies, both monthly and weekly, more closely resemble a La Nina Modoki than a canonical La Nina.
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March 2024 was the moistest March on record for the planet 📈 A warmer world is a moister world: this is evidenced by a weather variable called "total column water" or "precipitable water", the total moisture amount in a column of air, from the ground all the way up to the top of the atmosphere. We track global monthly temperature rankings in near real-time, so why not atmospheric moisture too? To help bridge this gap, I make available a global moisture anomaly map and ranking chart, updated once a month around the 7th on this page: bennollweather.com/weather-g… You are welcome to download the high resolution imagery and/or embed the graphics on a webpage.
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Consolidated SST forecasts favoring a return of #LaNina late in 2024. SPO & SPMM in the process of flipping to negative & the current strong +IOD would support a La Nina return. Also watch the subtropical IOD as some modeling suggests a -SIOD developing during austral summer.
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Yes, but, as with any index, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) doesn't capture the whole picture. Compare the SST patterns, ocean temps around Aust. are much warmer than 2019. I wouldn't necessarily expect the same rainfall impacts.
Ben Domensino@Ben_Domensino10 Oct 2023
This year's positive IOD just keeps getting stronger. 💪 The latest weekly IOD index value of +1.85ºC is only 0.3ºC below the peak of the record-challenging 2019 positive IOD event. More details on what this means for Australia here: weatherzone.com.au/news/posi…
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No real signs of the negative PDO dissipating as El Niño strengthens. In 1972 - the only reasonable analog to date - the negative PDO quickly shifted to neutral in July/August as the N Pacific circulation responded to El Niño. But the models claim this won't happen in 2023.
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SSTs across the equatorial #Pacific continue to trend toward #ElNino. The latest ACCESS-S2 outlooks from the Australia BOM appear overdone on intensity, but El Nino & a +IOD likely develops during boreal summer/austral winter.
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Conflicting signals between the MJO in phases 4/5 & AAO turning positive for rainfall in E #Australia during early May. MJO could lead to more favorable conditions for low development in the S IO or Bay of Bengal heading into the second week of May.
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Absolutely great group to work with, please share around: Research Fellow in Climate Variability jobs.unimelb.edu.au/en/job/9…
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Australia BOM has declared that we are back in #LaNina by their criteria of -0.8C versus NOAA's -0.5C criteria. Thus by NOAA & the #Australia BOM we are in only the third triple La Nina since records began in 1950. I warned of this possibility back in early April.
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New paper by cotton industry climate analyst @jonwelsh3 and @AndreaTaschetto looking at climate variability and yield related inputs - relevant info for cotton industry adaptation 😃🌡️💧doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2022.1… #ClimateExtremes #Science #Cotton
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Looking at the relationship between climate drivers and cotton yield in Australia, in collaboration with @jonwelsh3 @ccrc_unsw @ClimateExtremes @nespclimate authors.elsevier.com/c/1fbCZ…
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In addition to a -IOD this boreal autumn, the forecast demise of the current - South #Pacific Oscillation (SPO) & - South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM) in 2023 all favor the return of #ElNino late in 2023.
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Latest APEC multi-model ensemble showing moderate to strong -IOD. Weak #LaNina likely carries to end of year healthy trades in C & W equatorial #Pacific later in 2022; these trades fade in boreal winter of 2022/23. Teleconnections pointing toward possible #ElNino 2023/24 winter.
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it's one week until our live webinar for the agricultural industry with @jasonpeterevans, Dr Yawen Shao, cotton industry expert @jonwelsh3 and host @Constababble Thurs 10am on our facebook and youtube 💧☀️🌾🐄 @ClimateKelpie @CottonInfoAust @farmingforever #ClimateExtremes
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Latest weekly Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index value is -0.69°C which is below the -IOD threshold of -0.4°C & lower than previous weeks, indicative of an emerging -IOD. West anomalies in equatorial IO should result in a moderate to strong -IOD from late boreal summer into autumn.
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The West #Pacific basin will likely remain free of tropical development through the end of June. Back to 1970, only the 1998 & 2010 seasons had no development during June. Both years featured #LaNina conditions & development of a -IOD.
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Persisting -SPO & -SPMM can result in a rare triple #LaNina into 2023. Since 1950, the only other two triple La Ninas were from 1973-1976 and 1998-2001. Moderate to strong -IOD late in 2022 could mean a reverse to #ElNino for boreal winter of 2023/2024.
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CottonInfo Moisture Manager - wet phase of the Indian Ocean builds for 2022 winter crop. Plus, seasonal model summary and tune into the latest on ACCESS-S model changeover courtesy @ClimateKelpie #agchatoz - mailchi.mp/crdc/cottoninfo-m…
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